Thinking about Nigeria Poverty Colonialism Oil curse Corruption Ethnic/religious cleavages Federalism Legitimacy

Yr 2006 Population, total (millions) 144.7 Population growth (annual %) 2.4 HDI CPI .466 (151/177) 1.6 (144/146) Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 46.6 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 100.0 Literacy rate, youth female (% of females ages 15-24) 81.3 GNI (current US$) (billions) 103.3 GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) 640.0 Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49) 3.9

Ethnic/ Religious Cleavages Ethnic groups: Hausa-Fulani (29%), Yoruba (21%), and Igbo(Ibo) (18%) Ijaw (10%) reside in the Niger delta area Religious Cleavages: 50% Muslim (mainly in the north); 40% Christian (Anglicans, Baptists, Pentecostal), 10% other traditional. Importantly – some tribes, such as Yoruba, while majority Christian, have sizeable non-Christian minorities Regional differences: North – Muslim and underdeveloped; South – Christian modern; Middle zone – mixed religion

Nigeria is a rentier state 95% export revenues from oil Significant foreign company Involvement (e.g., Shell, Chevron) Member of OPEC The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) manages the state-owned oil industry.

Thinking about Nigeria - again Key questions How is the legacy of colonialism reflected in Nigerian politics? How has oil helped and hurt Nigeria? What role does ethnicity play in reinforcing the country’s difficulties? Why does Nigeria remain so poor? How have alternations between civilian and military regimes exacerbated Nigeria’s problems?

Nigeria History Sokoto Caliphate 1800 – 1900 north Islamic Yoruba, Oyo, Ifo and Benin kingdoms in south 1860 – 1945 British Colonial rule Indirect rule/ warrant chiefs 1945 – 1960 move to independence Increased inter-ethnic tensions Anti-state sentiment

History since Independence 1960 First Republic parliament dominated by North 1966 Military coup 1967 – 1970 Biafran Civil War 1975 another coup General Obasanjo sizes power 1978-9 Second Republic new const. Federalism. Elections – President Shagari 1983 - 1993 Military Coup/1993 return to civilian rule Third Republic/ another coup!! 1993 – 1998 General Abacha

Biafran War – 1967 – 1970 1 million died Secessionist attempt by southeastern tribes

Nigeria since Abacha 1998 Abacha dies; General Adubakar brings back civilian rule; parties allowed to form again 1999 Fourth Republic Obasanjo wins presidency; his party, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) wins assembly as well 2003 Pres. Obansanjo wins reelection 2007 April President Umara Yar’Adua (Adua) elected. PDP.

Political Culture Mass political culture Elite culture Non-electoral participation Political parties and elections The elections of 1999 The elections of 2003 The elections of 2007 - The Elections of 2011 April

Political Culture Urban v. Rural; English v. non-English Ethnic/ religious Military rule, corruption create apathy Democratic value at odds with traditional views (esp. rural) Elite depend on government largess Interventionist state Prebendalism (ethnic-based clients) But more western democratic

Political Activity Lively press – esp. in Fourth Republic Radio, TV important Youth movements Some IGs – Transition Monitoring Group – monitored 2003 elections Currently press in anti-corruption mode AIDS a major challenge

Elections – 4 since 1999 Political Parties – multi-party 2 major People’s Democratic Party (PDP) Obasanjo, Liberalization of economy, e.g., privatized telephone company; conservative on social values In power since 1999 All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) Northern/ conservative associated with Abacha years Alliance for Democracy (AD) progressive

Executive American style president 4 y term 2 term limit National popular vote President Umara Yar’Adua (PDP) April 2007 -2010 died Tradition of strong executive Obasanjo Yoruba, Christian, Former military YarAdua Fulani, Muslim Businessman

President Goodluck Jonathan Takes over after Yar Adua’s death, May 2010 Wins presidential election April 2011

National Assembly of Nigeria House of Representatives Senate 360 members/ 4 y terms Last election April 2011 First past the post Single-member districts PDP 223; ANPP 96 109 members/ 4 y terms 3 senators represent each of 36 states (plus one for capital Abuja) First past the post PDP 76; ANPP 27

Nigerian States - present 1963 - 4 regions

Public Policy - Challenges Democratization History of strong executive: Obasanjo’s bid for 3rd term. Legislature challenging executive Creation of INEC (Independent National Electoral Commission) 2002 Since 1999 tradition of elections. How free?? Relatively free press Active though restricted judiciary Economic development and structural adjustment policies Oil revenues Rentier state Debt relief – see Obasanjo’s 8/2000 letter Population growth Poverty and AIDS

Challenges cont. Legitimacy of government North v. South National identity?? Sharia law in the north Niger Delta violence Evolving nature of federalism Addressing corruption Prebendalism (client/patron networks/ ethnic based)

Describe two features of the Nigerian political system that keep it from being considered fully democratic.