Budget09 released on 21 November 2010 ppt version 20 January 2011 Carbon Budget 2009 More information, data sources and data files can be found at http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget

GCP-Carbon Budget2009 Contributors Karen Assmann University of Bergen, Norway Thomas A. Boden Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee USA Gordon Bonan National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA Laurent Bopp Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France Erik Buitenhuis School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK Ken Caldeira Depart. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USA Josep G. Canadell Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia Philippe Ciais Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR  CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France Thomas J. Conway NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA Steve Davis Scott C. Doney Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA Richard A. Feely Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington, USA Pru Foster QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK Pierre Friedlingstein Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK Joe L. Hackler Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA Christoph Heinze Richard A. Houghton Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA Chris Huntingford Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, UK Peter E. Levy     Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, UK Sam Levis National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Co, USA Mark R. Lomas Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, U Joseph Majkut AOS Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA Nicolas Metzl          LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France Corinne Le Quéré School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK Andrew Lenton CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Tasmania, Australia Ivan Lima Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA Gregg Marland Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA Glen P. Peters Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway Michael R. Raupach Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia Stephen Sitch School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK James T. Randerson Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, USA Guido R. van der Werf Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Nicolas Viovy Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France F. Ian Woodward Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK Sönke Zaehle Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany Ning Zeng University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA

GCP-Carbon Budget2009 http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget Friedlingstein P, Houghton RA, Marland G, Hackler J, Boden TA, Conway TJ, Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Ciais P, Le Quéré C. Update on CO2 emissions. Nature Geoscience, DOI 10.1038/ngeo_1022, Online 21 November 2010. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1022.html

Units 1 Pg = 1 Petagram = 1x1015g = 1 Billion metric tons = 1 Gigaton 1 Tg = 1 Teragram = 1x1012g = 1 Million metric tons 1 Kg Carbon (C) = 3.67 Kg Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions CO2 emissions (Pg C y-1) CO2 emissions (Pg CO2 y-1) Growth rate 1990-1999 1 % per year 2000-2009 2.5 % per year Time (y) 2009: Emissions:8.4±0.5 PgC Growth rate: -1.3% 1990 level: +37% 2000-2008 Growth rate: +3.2% 2010 (projected): Growth rate: >3% Fossil fuel CO2 emissions decreased by 1.3% in 2009, with a total of 8.4±0.5 PgC emitted to the atmosphere (30.8 Pg of CO2; 1 Pg = 1 billion tons or 1000 x million tons). These emissions were second highest in human history, just below 2008 emissions, and 37% higher than in 1990 (Kyoto reference year). Coal is now the largest fossil-fuel source of CO2 emissions. About 92% of the growth in coal emissions for the period 2007-2009 resulted from increased coal use in China and India. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and other industrial processes are calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For the period 1958 to 2007 the calculations were based on United Nations Energy Statistics and cement data from the US Geological Survey, and for the years 2008 and 2009 the calculations were based on BP energy data. Uncertainty of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimate is about ±6%. Uncertainty of emissions from individual countries can be several-fold bigger. The abrupt decline in fossil fuel emissions by 1.3% in 2009 is indisputably the result of the global financial crisis (GFC). A detectable lower-than-average growth of 2% in 2008 already signaled the beginning of the impact. The decline in 2009 was smaller than anticipated because: 1) the contraction of the Global World Product (GWP) was only -0.6%, as opposed to the forecasted -1.1%; and 2) the impact of the GFC was largely in developed economies which led more carbon-intense economies to take a larger share of the production of global wealth (with associated higher emissions). The long-term improvement of the carbon intensity of the economy (amount of carbon emissions to produce one dollar of wealth) is -1.7% y-1; the carbon intensity of the economy in 2009 improved only by -0.7% y-1. We estimate an emission growth of at least 3% in 2010 based on the forecast of +4.8% GWP growth rate of the International Monetary Fund, corrected for expected improvements in the carbon intensity of the global economy. Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Top Emitters 1990 95 2001 05 2009 97 99 03 93 400 800 1200 1600 2000 Carbon Emissions per year (C tons x 1,000,000) China USA Japan Russian Fed. India 07 Time (y) The biggest increase in fossil fuel emissions in recent years took place in developing countries (with close to 6 billion people) while emissions from developed countries (with less than 1 billion people), on average, show rather steady emissions for the last decade. However, emissions of a number of developed countries declined abruptly in 2009 (USA −6.9%, UK −8.6%, Germany −7%, Japan −11.8%, Russia −8.4%), while emerging economies continued to display rapid growth (China +8%, India +6.2%, South Korea +1.4%). The countries with highest absolute values of emissions are China, US, India, Russia, and Japan although the emissions per capita in China and India are still a fraction of the emissions in US, Russia and Japan. Prior to 2009, about one quarter of recent growth in emissions in developing countries resulted from the increase in international trade of goods and services produced in developing countries but consumed in developed countries. From a historical perspective, developing countries with 80% of the world’s population account for about one fifth of the cumulative emissions since 1751; the poorest countries in the world, with 800 million people, have contributed less than 1% of these cumulative emissions. Uncertainty of emissions from CO2 fossil fuel is large in some countries. Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden-CDIAC 2010

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Profile Examples 1990 95 01 05 2009 97 99 03 93 40 80 120 160 UK Denmark Australia Spain Canada Carbon Emissions per year (C tons x 1,000,000) 07 The Netherlands Time (y) The biggest increase in fossil fuel emissions in recent years took place in developing countries (with close to 6 billion people) while emissions from developed countries (with less than 1 billion people), on average, show rather steady emissions for the last decade. However, emissions of a number of developed countries declined abruptly in 2009 (USA −6.9%, UK −8.6%, Germany −7%, Japan −11.8%, Russia −8.4%), while emerging economies continued to display rapid growth (China +8%, India +6.2%, South Korea +1.4%). The countries with highest absolute values of emissions are China, US, India, Russia, and Japan although the emissions per capita in China and India are still a fraction of the emissions in US, Russia and Japan. Prior to 2009, about one quarter of recent growth in emissions in developing countries resulted from the increase in international trade of goods and services produced in developing countries but consumed in developed countries. From a historical perspective, developing countries with 80% of the world’s population account for about one fifth of the cumulative emissions since 1751; the poorest countries in the world, with 800 million people, have contributed less than 1% of these cumulative emissions. Uncertainty of emissions from CO2 fossil fuel is large in some countries. Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden- CDIAC 2010

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions Time (y) Annex B (Kyoto Protocol) Developed Nation Developing Nations Non-Annex B 1990 2000 2010 5 4 3 2 CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) 57% 43% The biggest increase in emissions has taken place in developing countries (with close to 6 billion people) while developed countries (with less than 1 billion people), on average, show rather steady emissions for the last decade (and decline over the last two years when the Global Financial Crisis has had an impact). About one quarter of the recent growth in emissions in developing countries resulted from the increase in international trade of goods and services produced in developing countries but consumed in developed countries. From a historical perspective, developing countries with 80% of the world’s population still account for about 20% of the cumulative emissions since 1751; the poorest countries in the world, with 800 million people, have contributed less than 1% of these cumulative emissions. Uncertainty of emissions from CO2 fossil fuel is large in some countries and about ±0.5 PgC globally. Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 20010

Top 20 CO2 Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2009 2500 6 5 2000 4 1500 Per Capita Emissions (tons C person y-1) Total Carbon Emissions (tons x 1,000,000) 3 1000 2 500 1 CHINA USA INDIA IRAN RUSSIA JAPAN CANADA MEXICO ITALY BRAZIL POLAND SPAIN GERMANY INDONESIA AUSTRALIA SOUTH KOREA SAUDI ARABIA SOUTH AFRICA UNITED KINGDOM FRANCE (inl. Monaco) Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; Population World Bank 2010

CO2 Emissions by Fossil Fuel Type CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) Oil Coal Gas Cement 4 3 2 1 1990 2000 2010 40% 36% Time (y) Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010

Change in CO2 Emissions from Coal (2007 to 2009) 92% of growth -50 50 100 150 200 250 300 China US India World CO2 emissions (Tg C y-1) 350 Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios Fossil Fuel Emission (PgCy-1) 5 6 7 8 9 10 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Full range of IPCC individual scenarios used for climate projections A1B Models Average A1FI Models Average A1T Models Average A2 Models Average B1 Models Average B2 Models Average Observed Projected Time (y) The abrupt decline in fossil fuel emissions by 1.3% in 2009 is indisputably the result of the global financial crisis (GFC). A detectable lower-than-average growth of 2% in 2008 already signalled the beginning of the impact. The decline in 2009 was smaller than anticipated because: 1) the contraction of the Global World Product (GWP) was only -0.6%, as opposed to the forecasted -1.1%; and 2) the impact of the GFC was largely in developed economies which led more carbon-intense economies to take a larger share of the production of global wealth (with associated higher emissions). The long-term improvement of the carbon intensity of the economy (amount of carbon emissions to produce one dollar of wealth) is -1.7% y-1; the carbon intensity of the economy in 2009 improved only by -0.7% y-1. We estimate an emission growth of at least 3% in 2010 based on the forecast of +4.8% GWP growth rate of the International Monetary Fund, corrected for expected improvements in the carbon intensity of the global economy. Updated from Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; International Monetary Fund 2010

Fluxes of Emissions Embodied in Trade (Mt CO2 y-1) From dominant net exporting countries (blue) to dominant net importing countries (red). Year 2004 Increasingly, more developed countries are net importers of carbon embedded in products and services provided by developing countries. In other words, developed countries are partially outsourcing their emissions to developing countries. In 2004, 23% of global CO2 emissions, or 6.2 gigatonnes CO2, were traded internationally, primarily as exports from China and other emerging markets to consumers in developed countries. In some wealthy countries, including Switzerland, Sweden, Austria, the United Kingdom, and France, >30% of consumption-based emissions were imported. In contrast, 22.5% of the emissions produced in China in 2004 were exported, on net, to consumers elsewhere. Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions demonstrates the potential for international carbon leakage. Davis & Caldeira 2010, PNAS; See also Peters & Hertwich 2008, Environ, Sci & Tech.

CO2 Emissions from FF and LUC (1960-2009) CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) Fossil fuel Land use change 10 8 6 4 2 1960 2010 1970 1990 2000 1980 Time (y) LUC emissions now ~10% of total CO2 emissions Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) CO2 emissions (PgCO2 y-1) 1990-1999 1.5±0.7 PgCy-1 2000-2009 1.1±0.7 PgCy-1 1990s Emissions: 1.5±0.7 PgC 2000-2005 Emissions: 1.3±0.7 PgC 2006-2010: Emissions: 0.9±0.7 PgC Land use change was responsible for estimated net emissions of 1.1±0.7 PgC per year for the decade of 2000s; this is about a 25% decline from the emissions of 1.5 PgC during the 1990s. For the decade of 2000s, an apparent trend in reduction of land use change emissions is observed, from 1.3 PgC during 2000-2005 to 0.9 PgC for 2006-2010. The implementation of new land policies, higher law enforcement to stop illegal deforestation, and new afforestation and regrowth of previously deforested areas have all contributed to this decline. Emissions for the period 2000-2005 were revised from previous assessments (dashed line) and lowered from 1.5 PgC y-1 to 1.3 PgC per year. This is largely the result of the availability of new datasets, particularly on forest regrowth in tropical regions. CO2 emissions from land use change are calculated by using a book-keeping method which used the new and revised data on land use change from the Food and agriculture Organization of the United Nationals Global Forest Resource Assessment 2010. The uncertainty on land use change emissions is the highest of any flux component of the global carbon budget. Time (y) Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Data: RA Houghton, GFRA 2010

Emissions from Land Use Change (1850-2009) -400 -200 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Tropical Temperate CO2 emissions (TgC y-1) Time (y) For the first time, land use change in the temperate world is a net carbon sink. R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010

Emissions from Land Use Change (1850-2009) 200 400 600 800 1000 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Latin America S & SE Asia Tropical Africa CO2 emissions (Tg C y-1) Time (y) R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010

Fire Emissions from Deforestation Zones deforestation zones (Tg C y-1) Fire Emissions from Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) version 3.1 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1997 99 01 2003 05 07 2009 America Africa Asia Pan-tropics Time (y) van der Werf et al. 2010, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions

Atmospheric CO2 Concentration GLOBAL MONTHLY MEAN CO2 Parts Per Million (ppm) 390 388 386 384 382 380 378 December 2009: 387.2 ppm September 2010 (preliminary): 389.2 ppm 39% above pre-industrial Annual Mea Growth Rate (ppm y-1) November 2010 2009 1.62 2008 1.80 2007 2.14 2006 1.84 2005 2.39 2004 1.60 2003 2.19 2002 2.40 2001 1.89 2000 1.22 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1 1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1 1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1 2000 - 2009: 1.9 ppm y-1 The annual growth rate of atmospheric CO2 was 1.6 ppm in 2009, below the average for the period 2000-2008 of 1.9 ppm per year (ppm = parts per million). The mean growth rate for the previous 20 years was about 1.5 ppm per year. This increase brought the atmospheric CO2 concentration to 387 ppm by the end of 2009, 39% above the concentration at the start of the industrial revolution (about 280 ppm in 1750). The present concentration is the highest during at least the last 2 million years. The increase in atmospheric CO2 of 3.4±0.1 Pg C yr−1 in 2009 was among the lowest since 2000. This cannot be explained by the decrease in CO2 emissions alone but is mainly caused by an increase in the land and ocean CO2 sinks in response to the tail of the La Niña event that perturbed the global climate system from mid 2007 until early 2009. Accumulation of atmospheric CO2 is the most accurately measured quantity in the global carbon budget with an uncertainty of about 4%. The estimated uncertainty in the global annual mean growth rate is 0.07 ppm/yr. The data is provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory. Data Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, 2010, NOAA/ESRL

Key Diagnostic of the Carbon Cycle Evolution of the fraction of total emissions that remain in the atmosphere Total CO2 emissions Atmosphere CO2 Partitioning (PgC y-1) 1960 2010 1970 1990 2000 1980 10 8 6 4 2 Time (y) Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: NOAA 2010, CDIAC 2010

Airborne Fraction Airborne Fraction Fraction of total CO2 emissions that remains in the atmosphere Airborne Fraction Trend: 0.31 % y-1 (p=~0.9) 45% 1960 2010 1970 1990 2000 1980 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 40% Time (y) Natural land and ocean CO2 sinks removed 57% of all CO2 emitted from human activities during the 1958-2009, each sink in roughly equal proportion. During this period, the size of the natural sinks has grown almost at the same pace as the growth in emissions, although year-to-year variability is large. There is the possibility, however, that the efficiency of the natural sinks is declining, an issue currently under intense debate in the scientific community. In 2009, the CO2 sinks increased slightly in repsonse to teh end of La Nina event that perturbed the global climate system from mid 2007 until early 2009. The trend in the ocean sink is estimated by using an ensemble of 5 ocean-process models. The models were normalized to the observed mean land and ocean sinks for 1990-2000, estimated from a range of oceanic and atmospheric observations. Models were forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration. The land sink is calculated as the residual of the sum of all sources minus atmosphere+ocean sinks. Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Raupach et al. 2008, Biogeosciences; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

Modelled Natural CO2 Sinks Land sink (PgCy-1) 5 models 1960 2010 1970 1990 2000 1980 2 -2 -4 -6 Ocean sink (PgCy-1) 5 models Time (y) 1960 2010 1970 1990 2000 1980 2 -2 -4 -6 Natural land and ocean CO2 sinks removed 57% of all CO2 emitted from human activities during the 1958-2009, each sink in roughly equal proportion. During this period, the size of the natural sinks has grown almost at the same pace as the growth in emissions, although year-to-year variability is large. There is the possibility, however, that the efficiency of the natural sinks is declining, an issue currently under intense debate in the scientific community. In 2009, the CO2 sinks increased slightly in repsonse to teh end of La Nina event that perturbed the global climate system from mid 2007 until early 2009. The trend in the ocean sink is estimated by using an ensemble of 5 ocean-process models. The models were normalized to the observed mean land and ocean sinks for 1990-2000, estimated from a range of oceanic and atmospheric observations. Models were forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration. The land sink is calculated as the residual of the sum of all sources minus atmosphere+ocean sinks. Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget Sink Source Time (y) 5 10 1850 1900 1950 2000 1.1±0.7 deforestation CO2 flux (PgC y-1) 2000-2009 (PgC) How the global carbon budget is put together: Atmospheric CO2. The data is provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory. Accumulation of atmospheric CO2 is the most accurately measured quantity in the global carbon budget with an uncertainty of about 4%. Emissions from CO2 fossil fuel. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and other industrial processes are calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For the period 1958 to 2007 the calculations were based on United Nations Energy Statistics and cement data from the US Geological Survey, and for the years 2008 and 2009 the calculations were based on BP energy data. Uncertainty of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimate is about ±6% (currently ±0.5 PgC). Uncertainty of emissions from individual countries can be several-fold bigger. Emissions from land use change. CO2 emissions from land use change are calculated by using a book-keeping method with the revised data on land use change from the Food and agriculture Organization of the United Nationals Global Forest Resource Assessment 2010. Uncertainty on this flux is the highest of all budget components. Ocean CO2 sink. The global ocean sink is estimated using an ensemble of five process ocean models. Models are forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration.  Current uncertainty is around 0.4 PgC y-1. Land CO2 sink. The terrestrial sink is estimated as the residual from the sum of all sources minus ocean+atmosphere sink. The sink can also be estimated using terrestrial biogeochemical models as in previous carbon budget updates. More information on data sources, uncertainty, and methods are available at: http://lgmacweb.env.uea.ac.uk/lequere/co2/carbon_budget.htm Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget 5 10 1850 1900 1950 2000 7.7±0.5 deforestation fossil fuel emissions Sink Source Time (y) CO2 flux (PgC y-1) 1.1±0.7 2000-2009 (PgC) How the global carbon budget is put together: Atmospheric CO2. The data is provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory. Accumulation of atmospheric CO2 is the most accurately measured quantity in the global carbon budget with an uncertainty of about 4%. Emissions from CO2 fossil fuel. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and other industrial processes are calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For the period 1958 to 2007 the calculations were based on United Nations Energy Statistics and cement data from the US Geological Survey, and for the years 2008 and 2009 the calculations were based on BP energy data. Uncertainty of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimate is about ±6% (currently ±0.5 PgC). Uncertainty of emissions from individual countries can be several-fold bigger. Emissions from land use change. CO2 emissions from land use change are calculated by using a book-keeping method with the revised data on land use change from the Food and agriculture Organization of the United Nationals Global Forest Resource Assessment 2010. Uncertainty on this flux is the highest of all budget components. Ocean CO2 sink. The global ocean sink is estimated using an ensemble of five process ocean models. Models are forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration.  Current uncertainty is around 0.4 PgC y-1. Land CO2 sink. The terrestrial sink is estimated as the residual from the sum of all sources minus ocean+atmosphere sink. The sink can also be estimated using terrestrial biogeochemical models as in previous carbon budget updates. More information on data sources, uncertainty, and methods are available at: http://lgmacweb.env.uea.ac.uk/lequere/co2/carbon_budget.htm Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget 5 10 1850 1900 1950 2000 deforestation fossil fuel emissions Sink Source CO2 flux (PgC y-1) 7.7±0.5 1.1±0.7 2000-2009 (PgC) How the global carbon budget is put together: Atmospheric CO2. The data is provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory. Accumulation of atmospheric CO2 is the most accurately measured quantity in the global carbon budget with an uncertainty of about 4%. Emissions from CO2 fossil fuel. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and other industrial processes are calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For the period 1958 to 2007 the calculations were based on United Nations Energy Statistics and cement data from the US Geological Survey, and for the years 2008 and 2009 the calculations were based on BP energy data. Uncertainty of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimate is about ±6% (currently ±0.5 PgC). Uncertainty of emissions from individual countries can be several-fold bigger. Emissions from land use change. CO2 emissions from land use change are calculated by using a book-keeping method with the revised data on land use change from the Food and agriculture Organization of the United Nationals Global Forest Resource Assessment 2010. Uncertainty on this flux is the highest of all budget components. Ocean CO2 sink. The global ocean sink is estimated using an ensemble of five process ocean models. Models are forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration.  Current uncertainty is around 0.4 PgC y-1. Land CO2 sink. The terrestrial sink is estimated as the residual from the sum of all sources minus ocean+atmosphere sink. The sink can also be estimated using terrestrial biogeochemical models as in previous carbon budget updates. More information on data sources, uncertainty, and methods are available at: http://lgmacweb.env.uea.ac.uk/lequere/co2/carbon_budget.htm Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget 5 10 1850 1900 1950 2000 4.1±0.1 fossil fuel emissions deforestation atmospheric CO2 Sink Source Time (y) CO2 flux (PgC y-1) 7.7±0.5 1.1±0.7 2000-2009 (PgC) How the global carbon budget is put together: Atmospheric CO2. The data is provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory. Accumulation of atmospheric CO2 is the most accurately measured quantity in the global carbon budget with an uncertainty of about 4%. Emissions from CO2 fossil fuel. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and other industrial processes are calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For the period 1958 to 2007 the calculations were based on United Nations Energy Statistics and cement data from the US Geological Survey, and for the years 2008 and 2009 the calculations were based on BP energy data. Uncertainty of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimate is about ±6% (currently ±0.5 PgC). Uncertainty of emissions from individual countries can be several-fold bigger. Emissions from land use change. CO2 emissions from land use change are calculated by using a book-keeping method with the revised data on land use change from the Food and agriculture Organization of the United Nationals Global Forest Resource Assessment 2010. Uncertainty on this flux is the highest of all budget components. Ocean CO2 sink. The global ocean sink is estimated using an ensemble of five process ocean models. Models are forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration.  Current uncertainty is around 0.4 PgC y-1. Land CO2 sink. The terrestrial sink is estimated as the residual from the sum of all sources minus ocean+atmosphere sink. The sink can also be estimated using terrestrial biogeochemical models as in previous carbon budget updates. More information on data sources, uncertainty, and methods are available at: http://lgmacweb.env.uea.ac.uk/lequere/co2/carbon_budget.htm Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget 5 10 1850 1900 1950 2000 atmospheric CO2 fossil fuel emissions deforestation ocean 2.3±0.4 Sink Source Time (y) CO2 flux (PgC y-1) (5 models) 4.1±0.1 7.7±0.5 1.1±0.7 2000-2009 (PgC) How the global carbon budget is put together: Atmospheric CO2. The data is provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory. Accumulation of atmospheric CO2 is the most accurately measured quantity in the global carbon budget with an uncertainty of about 4%. Emissions from CO2 fossil fuel. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and other industrial processes are calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For the period 1958 to 2007 the calculations were based on United Nations Energy Statistics and cement data from the US Geological Survey, and for the years 2008 and 2009 the calculations were based on BP energy data. Uncertainty of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimate is about ±6% (currently ±0.5 PgC). Uncertainty of emissions from individual countries can be several-fold bigger. Emissions from land use change. CO2 emissions from land use change are calculated by using a book-keeping method with the revised data on land use change from the Food and agriculture Organization of the United Nationals Global Forest Resource Assessment 2010. Uncertainty on this flux is the highest of all budget components. Ocean CO2 sink. The global ocean sink is estimated using an ensemble of five process ocean models. Models are forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration.  Current uncertainty is around 0.4 PgC y-1. Land CO2 sink. The terrestrial sink is estimated as the residual from the sum of all sources minus ocean+atmosphere sink. The sink can also be estimated using terrestrial biogeochemical models as in previous carbon budget updates. More information on data sources, uncertainty, and methods are available at: http://lgmacweb.env.uea.ac.uk/lequere/co2/carbon_budget.htm Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget 5 10 1850 1900 1950 2000 2000-2009 (PgC) atmospheric CO2 ocean land fossil fuel emissions deforestation (Residual) Sink Source Time (y) CO2 flux (PgC y-1) 2.3±0.4 (5 models) 4.1±0.1 7.7±0.5 1.1±0.7 2.4 How the global carbon budget is put together: Atmospheric CO2. The data is provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory. Accumulation of atmospheric CO2 is the most accurately measured quantity in the global carbon budget with an uncertainty of about 4%. Emissions from CO2 fossil fuel. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and other industrial processes are calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For the period 1958 to 2007 the calculations were based on United Nations Energy Statistics and cement data from the US Geological Survey, and for the years 2008 and 2009 the calculations were based on BP energy data. Uncertainty of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimate is about ±6% (currently ±0.5 PgC). Uncertainty of emissions from individual countries can be several-fold bigger. Emissions from land use change. CO2 emissions from land use change are calculated by using a book-keeping method with the revised data on land use change from the Food and agriculture Organization of the United Nationals Global Forest Resource Assessment 2010. Uncertainty on this flux is the highest of all budget components. Ocean CO2 sink. The global ocean sink is estimated using an ensemble of five process ocean models. Models are forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration.  Current uncertainty is around 0.4 PgC y-1. Land CO2 sink. The terrestrial sink is estimated as the residual from the sum of all sources minus ocean+atmosphere sink. The sink can also be estimated using terrestrial biogeochemical models as in previous carbon budget updates. More information on data sources, uncertainty, and methods are available at: http://lgmacweb.env.uea.ac.uk/lequere/co2/carbon_budget.htm Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2009) 1.1±0.7 PgC y-1 + 7.7±0.5 PgC y-1 2.4 PgC y-1 27% Calculated as the residual of all other flux components 4.1±0.1 PgC y-1 47% 26% 2.3±0.4 PgC y-1 Average of 5 models Residue is included in the land sink Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

Anthropogenic Global Carbon Dioxide Budget Global Carbon Project 2010

References cited in this ppt Canadell JG et al. (2007) Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. PNAS 104: 18866–18870, http://www.pnas.org/content/104/47/18866.abstract Carbon Dioxide Information Analyses Center (CDIAC). http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html Davis S, Caldeira K (2010) Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions. PNAS 107: 5687-5692. http://www.pnas.org/content/107/12/5687 International Monetary Fund (2010) World economic outlook. October 2010. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/02/ Global Forest Resources Assessment (2010) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; http://www.fao.org/forestry/fra/fra2010/en/ Friedlingstein P, Houghton RA, Marland G, Hackler J, Boden TA, Conway TJ, Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Ciais P, Le Quéré C. Update on CO2 emissions. Nature Geoscience, DOI 10.1038/ngeo_1022, Online 21 November 2010. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1022.html Global Carbon Project (2010) Carbon budget and trends 2009. http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget Le Quéré C, Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Marland G et al. (2009) Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature geosciences, doi: 10.1038/ngeo689. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n12/full/ngeo689.html Peters GP, Hertwich E G (2008) CO2 embodied in international trade with implications for global climate policy. Environmental Science and Technology 42: 1401-1407. http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es072023k Raupach MR et al. (2007) Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 14: 10288-10293. http://www.pnas.org/content/104/24/10288 Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Le Quéré C (2008) Drivers of interannual to interdecadal variability in atmospheric in atmospheric CO2 growth rate and airborne fraction. Biogeosciences 5: 1601–1613. http://www.biogeosciences.net/5/1601/2008/bg-5-1601-2008.html Tans P, Conway T (2010) Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide. NOAA/ESRL www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends van der Werf et al. (2010) Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997–2009). Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 10, 16153-16230. http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/10/16153/2010/acpd-10-16153-2010.html

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