MONTECARLO (STATIC) SIMULATIONS

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Presentation transcript:

MONTECARLO (STATIC) SIMULATIONS SIMULATION EXAMPLES MONTECARLO (STATIC) SIMULATIONS

Examples Monte-Carlo (Static) Simulation Estimating profit on a sale promotion Newsvendor problem Estimating p value Approximating integrals

Profit on a Sale Promotion Furniture Store Unit cost: $175 Demand distribution : TRIA(500, 2000, 3500) Unit price distribution : UNIF(200, 300) 50% off sale Determine the order amount for maximizing profit. Estimating profit on a sale promotion

Newsvendor Problem Determine the order amount for maximizing profit Wholesale price : $0.55 Retail price : $1.00 Scrap price : $0.03 Demand distribution : NORM(135.7, 27.1) Determine the order amount for maximizing profit Newsvendor Problem

Estimating p value X, Y ~ uniform (0,1) 1 Estimate p value by simulation 1 p/4 1

Convergence to p

Approximating Integrals Consider the integral Making the substitution we get where

Approximating Integrals Let Y ~ uniform(0,1) Approximate the integral by simulation