Nature’s Notebook year-end summary Your 2014 results

Outline Continued growth and activity – thank you! Focus on fall phenology What’s coming next spring http://blog.lib.umn.edu/mari0162/architecture/2006/10/colors_in_the_sky.html

Thank you! 1,310,882 records…and counting!

Focus on fall phenology In our end-of-spring webinar, we talked about how many studies suggest that spring is occurring earlier There’s generally less emphasis placed on autumn, and how the timing of fall events might be changing www.usanpn.org/nn/campaigns Poll Q

Why do we care about fall phenology? Tourism/leaf-peeping Predicting carbon cycling Albedo NPP

NN data applications

Gaps in our understanding… Recent studies have suggested that warming temperatures can delay leaf color change But – unclear what drives leaf color change and abscission? Photoperiod? Temperature? Does this vary by species? What drives leaf color change? Does this vary by species? Will the timing change in the future? Jeong and Medvigy, 2014

What they did… paper birch Betula papyrifera red maple Acer rubrum American beech Fagus grandifolia Northern red oak Quercus rubra Data from Harvard Forest and USA-NPN Six species of deciduous trees sugar maple Acer saccharum aspen Populus tremuloides Jeong and Medvigy, 2014

Jeong and Medvigy, 2014

What they found… Harvard Forest USA-NPN observations Delay in leaf color change Temperature-only model worked best Photoperiod + temperature model worked best Species showed different sensitivities Warmer regions: greater sensitivity to temperature Leaf color change has gotten later at Harvard Forest since 1993 (~0.24 day/year) Explained best by a temperature-only model Applied this model to observations collected by Nature’s Notebook participants Found that photoperiod + temperature best explained timing of leaf color change Jeong and Medvigy, 2014

What they found… Jeong and Medvigy, 2014 RCP 2.6 – increase of 2.6 C by 2100 – delay of nearly 7 days RCP 8.5 – increase of 10.8 C – delayed by more than 20 days Jeong and Medvigy, 2014

What they found… RCP 2.6: delay of ~7 days RCP 2.6: delay of ~2 days Jeong and Medvigy, 2014

Take-home message… Timing of leaf coloration can be predicted using photoperiod + temperature - Cold temps matter – but have to be “cold enough” to count! *definitely could have implications for tourism, nutrient cycling, species interactions… Will species change at the same rates? Jeong and Medvigy, 2014

What do we see in 2014? #October was 4th warmest on record for contig USA per @NOAANCDC #StateOfClimate http://1.usa.gov/1osShtz  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/maps.php

Green Wave 2014 First reported “Yes” for Colored leaves Acer spp. (maples) Quercus spp. (oaks) Popululs spp. (poplars)

Green Wave 2014 First reported “Yes” for Breaking leaf buds Documenting fundamental patterns and relationships Documenting changes in the timing of life cycle events

Green Wave 2014 Maple (Acer spp.) First reported “Yes” to Colored leaves

Green Wave 2014 Oaks (Quercus spp.) First reported “Yes” to Colored leaves

Green Wave 2014 Poplars (Populus spp.) First reported “Yes” to Colored leaves

NN observations improve predictions of the future **The finding from the Jeong & Medvigy paper that responses vary by species is one that is found commonly, and is important. One application for this is in vegetation models that predict what our landscape might look like under future climate change scenarios. Frequently, these models are parameterized – or “programmed” – with the phenology of only a single species. But we know that’s far from an accurate depiction of what “real life” looks like. Some researchers recently

Dynamic Vegetation Model: NN data applications Improve predictions of vegetation composition under future climate scenarios Dynamic Vegetation Model: **The finding from the Jeong & Medvigy paper that responses vary by species is one that is found commonly, and is important. One application for this is in vegetation models that predict what our landscape might look like under future climate change scenarios. Frequently, these models are parameterized – or “programmed” – with the phenology of only a single species. But we know that’s far from an accurate depiction of what “real life” looks like. Some researchers recently http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamic_global_vegetation_model

NN data applications http://www.fao.org/docrep/005/y4293e/y4293e0i.htm

NN data applications Improve predictions of vegetation composition under future climate scenarios Used Nature’s Notebook observations to determine leaf-out date of several plant species Demonstrate future changes in plant composition Ecosystem composition (%) Euskirchen et al., Global Change Biology, 2014

Available now! Summarized data Poll Q www.usanpn.org/results/data

Example information available using “summarized data” Documenting fundamental patterns and relationships Documenting changes in the timing of life cycle events

Downloading Summarized data

Downloading Summarized data www.usanpn.org/results/data

http://www. star. nesdis. noaa. gov/star/news2014_201410_FallFoliage http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/star/news2014_201410_FallFoliage.php

Volunteers submit high-quality observations! Fuccillo et al., Int’l J of Biometeorology, 2014

Volunteers submit high-quality observations! Fuccillo et al., Int’l J of Biometeorology, 2014

Coming next spring…

Coming next spring…

Coming next spring…

Coming next spring…

Coming next spring… Especially for Green Wave Campaign participants! “At your location, you have reported Breaking leaf buds as early as March 15 and as late as April 22. This spring is expected to be exceptionally warm where you live, so we expect Breaking leaf buds to occur early. Begin to watch for buds starting in early March!” Documenting fundamental patterns and relationships Documenting changes in the timing of life cycle events

Happy fall…and happy holidays! Documenting fundamental patterns and relationships Documenting changes in the timing of life cycle events

Thank you! theresa@usanpn.org @TheresaCrimmins www.usanpn.org www.facebook.com/USANPN