SEA LEVEL CHANGES One of the effects of Glabal warming is the rise in sea levels Don’t be alarmed by all of the disaster stories, they have been rising since the end of the ‘Little Ice Age’ (17th century ) The globe has been slowly warming since, thus explains why sea levelsare 15-25cm higer than a century ago At present rising 2mm a year

PREDICTIONS FOR THE FUTURE Estimated that the rate of increase will rise to 5mm a year in the next 100 years because of; Thermal expansion of the oceans- warmer water = less dense thus greater volume Also contribution from melting ice, mainly alpine glaciers (Himalayas) + Melting Sea Ice (there has been a 5% decrease in Arctic between 1984 to 1999) Polar ice caps won’t melt as much because higher global temps = more evaportation from ocean thus increased snowfall in Greenland and Antarctica

CONSEQUENCES OF A RISE IN SEA LEVELS At the moment there are approx. 10 million people at a costant flood risk and another 46million at risk from storm surges A rise of 50cm could affect 92 million people and 118 million with a 1 metre rise- which would flood, 25% of Banglandesh, affecting 60% of its population. Also flood 30% of Egypt’s arable land Other effected cities include Tokyo, London, Bangkok, Calcutta, Hong Kong Miami A rise of 3 degrees would lead to the complete melting of the Greenland Ice sheet, raising sea levels by 7 metres

Map showing the densely populated areas of Pakistan, India and Bangladesh

Correlation showing Arable land (in percent of total land) and vulnerability index

Average number of annual disasters by category Sea Land Population Others 1960s 12 30 6 5 1970s 11 41 15 9 1980s 18 67 38 1990s 105 393 228 62 Based on data in OFDA, 1996