Statistical Societies Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders, Budapest, 20–21 October 2016 Enhancing statistical culture – the potential role of Statistical Societies   Margit Epler, Josef Richter October 2016 1

Contents The notion of statistical culture Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders, Budapest, 20–21 October 2016 Contents The notion of statistical culture Means for enhancing statistical culture: Legal acts, codes and standards Governance Principles - Missing elements The role and mission of Statistical Societies Conclusions Margit Epler, Josef Richter October 2016 2

The notion of (statistical) culture Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders, Budapest, 20–21 October 2016 The notion of (statistical) culture The term ‘culture’ is used with different meanings and contexts. According to a standard dictionary definition ‘Culture is a word for people's 'way of life', meaning the way groups do things. Different groups of people may have different cultures’. ‘Statistical culture’ stands for the way statistical information is produced, made available to users and perceived by stakeholders and its underlying environment. ‘Statistical culture’ is an important element of the ‘political culture’ of a country. Margit Epler, Josef Richter October 2016 3

The notion of (statistical) culture Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders, Budapest, 20–21 October 2016 The notion of (statistical) culture In the European Union official statistics should be produced in a similar way in all Member States. The ‘statistical culture’ has to be comparable and reproducible. European statistics constitute an essential contribution to building the information capacity required to sustain the EU's strategic objectives and the underlying policies and supporting instruments (Vision paper, 2009). For the reputation of European statistics it is crucial to reach a high level of ‘statistical culture’. Margit Epler, Josef Richter October 2016 4

Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders, Budapest, 20–21 October 2016 Means for enhancing (official) statistical culture: Legal acts, codes and standards Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics adopted by the United Nations (1991). European Statistical law (Regulation 223/2009 on European statistics). European Statistics Code of Practice (2005, 2011). Quality Assurance Framework of the European Statistical System with its focus on quality, statistical processes, and output (2011). Margit Epler, Josef Richter October 2016 5

Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders, Budapest, 20–21 October 2016 Means for enhancing (official) statistical culture: Legal acts, codes and standards European statistics have become increasingly important for the development, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of EU policies but also for operational purposes. As a consequence, the European Statistical System is to a high degree governed by legal provisions. The legal framework includes a diversity of principles aiming at a high ’statistical culture’. Margit Epler, Josef Richter October 2016 6

Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders, Budapest, 20–21 October 2016 Principles Key principles according Article 2 of Regulation (EC) No 223/2009, the European Statistical law Professional independence Impartiality Objectivity Reliability Statistical confidentiality Cost effectiveness Margit Epler, Josef Richter October 2016 7

Principles Code of Practice Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders, Budapest, 20–21 October 2016 Principles Code of Practice Statistical authorities, comprising the Commission (Eurostat), National Statistical Institutes and other national authorities responsible for the development, production and dissemination of European statistics, together with governments, ministries and the European Council, commit themselves to adhere to the Code. Principles: Professional Independence Mandate for Data Collection Adequacy of Resources Commitment to Quality Margit Epler, Josef Richter October 2016 8

Principles Code of Practice Principles (continued): Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders, Budapest, 20–21 October 2016 Principles Code of Practice Principles (continued): Statistical Confidentiality Impartiality and Objectivity Sound Methodology Appropriate Statistical Procedures Non-excessive Burden on Respondents Cost Effectiveness Relevance Accuracy and Reliability Timeliness and Punctuality Coherence and Comparability Accessibility and Clarity Margit Epler, Josef Richter October 2016 9

Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders, Budapest, 20–21 October 2016 Governance The existence of detailed legal provisions and agreed standards must be seen as a necessary but not sufficient criterion. Compliance with them has to be monitored. For this purpose, inter alia two rounds of Peer Reviews in all Member States have been carried out by Eurostat and a European Statistical Governance Advisory Board (ESGAB) has been established 2008. The main task of ESGAB is to provide an independent overview of the ESS as regards the implementation of the European Statistics Code of Practice. Margit Epler, Josef Richter October 2016 10

Governance Main results of these efforts Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders, Budapest, 20–21 October 2016 Governance Main results of these efforts The focus of the first round of Peer Reviews (2006-2008) was laid on the principles dealing with the institutional environment and the dissemination policy of the NSIs and Eurostat (principles 1-6;15). The reviews resulted in a number of recommended improvement actions for each NSI. The progress made was subject of an annual monitoring by Eurostat and ESGAB. In 2011 more than 60% of all recommended improvement actions (> 650; among them 66 for Eurostat) were completed, but 275 remained open. Margit Epler, Josef Richter October 2016 11

Governance Main results of these efforts Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders, Budapest, 20–21 October 2016 Governance Main results of these efforts The second round of Peer Reviews (2013-2015) was audit- inspired and covered all principles and indicators of the Code of Practice as well as coordination aspects. Therefore, a number of other national authorities responsible for producing European statistics were assessed, also. Again the assessments were conducted by independent peer reviewers, with Eurostat being reviewed by ESGAB. The Peer Reviews led to 707 recommendations, an average of 21 per country/Eurostat. 9 % (65) of the recommendations refer to major cases of non- compliance with the Code of Practice such as impartiality, dissemination, professional independence. Margit Epler, Josef Richter October 2016 12

Principles - Missing elements Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders, Budapest, 20–21 October 2016 Principles - Missing elements The provisions of the European Statistical law and the principles of the Code of Practice determine how European statistics should be produced and disseminated. They can be seen as the perception of ‘statistical culture’ by the European legislators for the purpose of European statistics. The question arises: Do these provisions and principles cover all relevant dimensions of ‘statistical culture’? Need the statisticians and the academic world in general add other elements? Do we need additional institutions to enhance ‘statistical culture’? Margit Epler, Josef Richter October 2016 13

Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders, Budapest, 20–21 October 2016 Missing elements Statisticians should try to avoid unrealistic expectations As a reaction to the obvious tendency of policy makers to formulate their political objectives in terms of precise target values and thresholds for statistical indicators statisticians should make clear which degree of comparability and accuracy of measurement can be accomplished. The trade-off between timeliness and accuracy should not be neglected. The characteristics of many statistical results do not allow ranking in a meaningful way. Statisticians should resist the temptation that ‘everything goes’. Margit Epler, Josef Richter October 2016 14

Missing elements Correct labelling Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders, Budapest, 20–21 October 2016 Missing elements Correct labelling For the adequate use of data it is of utmost importance to know whether the data was taken from the box labelled ‘facts’ or from the box labelled ‘model results’. The main results of national accounts to be transmitted a few month after the reference period are of completely different nature compared to the final results of national accounts only available two years after the reference period. ‘Flash estimates’ and ‘Preliminary results’ provide information of a different character than final results. Margit Epler, Josef Richter October 2016 15

Missing elements Correct labelling Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders, Budapest, 20–21 October 2016 Missing elements Correct labelling Principle 15 of the Code of Practice already asks for the provision of supporting metadata, but much more has to be done to inform users about the cognitive character of the data. In a related manner much more information on the theoretical background of the concepts selected and the fact, that almost all concepts are (inevitably) ‘value laden’ need to be provided. Margit Epler, Josef Richter October 2016 16

The role of Statistical Societies Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders, Budapest, 20–21 October 2016 The role of Statistical Societies They can be instrumental in improving the essential communication between compilers and users of data. “Somehow analysts of all stripes and in particular those active in the academic world have lost essential communication with the compilers and synthesizers of the data. As a consequence, popular discourse and policy making have suffered confusion” (EISNER 1989). In general terms: Promotion of statistical literacy. Margit Epler, Josef Richter October 2016 17

The role of Statistical Societies Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders, Budapest, 20–21 October 2016 The role of Statistical Societies These roles are fully consistent with the Mission Statements of most Statistical Societies such as the one of the Royal Statistical Society: STATISTICS AND THE PUBLIC INTEREST For statistics to be used effectively in the public interest, so that policy formulation and decision making are informed by evidence for the good of society. Giving users of statistics a voice. EDUCATION AND STATISTICAL LITERACY For society to be more statistically literate, so that people’s understanding of data, risk and probability can inform their daily decision making, leading to better outcomes. Margit Epler, Josef Richter October 2016 18

The role of Statistical Societies Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders, Budapest, 20–21 October 2016 The role of Statistical Societies These roles are fully consistent with the Mission Statements of most Statistical Societies such as the one of the Royal Statistical Society (cont.): DEVELOPING THE PROFESSION For a strong body of professional statisticians to maintain and develop the skills they need so that they can critically apply methodology, interpret results and communicate findings. STRENGTHENING THE DISCIPLINE For statistics as a discipline to thrive, so that methodology is advanced, applied and made accessible, leading to greater understanding of an increasingly complex world. Margit Epler, Josef Richter October 2016 19

The role of Statistical Societies Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders, Budapest, 20–21 October 2016 The role of Statistical Societies Pointing out that official statistics in Europe should meet the requirements of other stakeholders than European authorities, also. Creating awareness about the political dimension of statistical results in the European Union among stakeholders. In particular Statistical Societies should provide fora for the critical assessment and reflection of what is going on. As soon as a legal act was passed, official statisticians in the EU have to execute legal provisions. Some flexibility is only granted with respect to the statistical processes to be applied. Margit Epler, Josef Richter October 2016 20

Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders, Budapest, 20–21 October 2016 Conclusions On the track to a high level of ‘statistical culture’ much has been accomplished in the last decades. A lot remains still to be done. Statistical Societies have a very import role to play. They have to stimulate the indispensable communication between statisticians, the academic world, stakeholders and all users. Their field of activities should cover European statistics but has to go far beyond European statistics. As independent scientific societies they should act as the advocates of a high professional standard and a maximum of transparency. Margit Epler, Josef Richter October 2016 21

Thank you for your attention Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders, Budapest, 20–21 October 2016 Thank you for your attention Margit Epler, Josef Richter October 2016 22