Predicting Tomorrow by Crunching Today’s Numbers

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Presentation transcript:

Predicting Tomorrow by Crunching Today’s Numbers David Hartzband, D.Sc. Founder & Principal, PostTechnical Research, & Research Scholar, Institute for Data, Systems & Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Predicting Tomorrow - TACHC 2016

Predicting Tomorrow - TACHC 2016 This isn’t in the… Future rear view mirror Predicting Tomorrow - TACHC 2016

Predicting Tomorrow - TACHC 2016 What is Prediction? Prediction = a statement about a future event or state of being Predictive Analytics = the application of statistical & visualization methods as well as algorithms to data to make a statement about a future event or state of being In Healthcare = using these techniques to characterize & predict the state of operational & clinical information (for individuals & populations) for use in decision making Predicting Tomorrow - TACHC 2016

Prediction depends on Data! Use of data depends on “data awareness” Data Awareness = Knowing: What data is available (internal & external) to make a decision Location, accessibility, validity & quality of relevant data Does validity &/or quality affect its use? Can these be improved if necessary? What type(s) of visualizations/analyses are relevant to the decision Can they be done? Interpreted? Used in decision making? Predicting Tomorrow - TACHC 2016

Predicting Tomorrow - TACHC 2016 Types of Analysis… Aggregation & visualization Range of algorithms from very simple similarity (pattern matching) to complex higher-level pattern analysis (including machine learning) Simple graphing to complex visual comparisons Dashboards present simple to moderately complex data characterization (How many? Related to? etc.) Statistical Models Simple models (like correlation) to show relationships among data variables Higher-level models (principal components, multivaritiate models) Predictive models (simple & complex regression, simulations) Algorithmic Analysis Neural net & other “cognitive” models Rule-based & other AI techniques Natural Language analysis Many others Predicting Tomorrow - TACHC 2016

Predicting Tomorrow - TACHC 2016 What to be aware of?... Availability – inventory of data & information used & referenced by the organization, who uses it, how, notes on use – ongoing inventory Location – not only where the data is located, but how to access it Quality – are there quality issues (missing data? Incomplete data? Unusable data? Etc.) Can the data quality be improved? Validity – has the data been corroborated (validated)? How can it be? Can data validity be improved? Usage aligned with users & decisions: Dashboards – what data to display Analytic results – what methods to use Interpretation – relevance to decision-making, suggesting other questions (analyses) Predicting Tomorrow - TACHC 2016

Predicting Tomorrow - TACHC 2016 Usage Issues… What data should be analyzed/displayed? Aligned with operational, clinical or strategic decision(s) Work back from what needs to be decided, then you’ll know what data to use How should data (& results) be organized? Who will be using the data/results? What are their priorities? Decisions drive data & analysis What decisions do you need to make? Random analysis & pattern matching rarely drive decisions (but may drive further analysis) Predicting Tomorrow - TACHC 2016

Patient Cycle Time – Rural Hospital (TN) Courtesy of Tableau Software, Inc., academic collaboration program Predicting Tomorrow - TACHC 2016

ED Dashboard – Piedmont Healthcare Courtesy of Tableau Software, Inc., academic collaboration program Predicting Tomorrow - TACHC 2016

Predicting Tomorrow - TACHC 2016 Analytics in Use… & now… A real-life example of a dashboard currently in use: Community Health Service Agency Greenville, TX Predicting Tomorrow - TACHC 2016

Predicting Tomorrow - TACHC 2016 Questions? ? David Hartzband, D.Sc. Founder & Principal PostTechnical Research & Research Scholar Institute for Data, Systems & Society Massachusetts Institute of Technology dhartzband@gmail.com dhartz@mit.edu https://posttechnical.blogspot.com/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/dhartzband Predicting Tomorrow - TACHC 2016