Chapter 11 Public Opinion and Political Socialization The importance placed on public opinion and information gathering techniques should be made abundantly clear. Like any science, simple observation is not enough. Looking out across the plain may lead us to believe that the earth is flat, or driving past a poor neighborhood may lead one to believe the inhabitants are lazy, unskilled, or unintelligent. This obviously, to a social scientist, is not the case. It must be emphasized that there is a difference in one’s casual opinion (even backed by hours of listening to talk radio or watching CNN, FOX and MSNBC) and scientific consensus. One of the most frustrating obstacles those in the social sciences run into is students who think what we teach is simply opinion—as if the effectiveness of social welfare programs, tax policies, affirmative action, etc., cannot be objectively determined by hard data. It is often said that polls can be made to say anything. That’s true—if you don’t know how to read them. Knowing how to read polls, and being able to discern good polling questions from bad ones, and what the answers mean is a learned skill. Chapter 11 Public Opinion and Political Socialization

Chapter Outline and Learning Objectives LO 11.1: Public opinion is what the public thinks about an issue or a particular set of issues. Polls are used to estimate public opinion. Almost since the beginning of the United States, various attempts have been made to influence public opinion about particular issues or to sway elections. Literary Digest first began national presidential polling in 1916, using unscientific straw polls. Modern-day polling did not begin until the 1930s. George Gallup was the first to use scientific polling methods to determine public opinion. LO 11.2: The different types of polls include traditional telephone polls, entrance and exit polls, tracking polls, Internet polls, and push polls. Those who conduct polls must first determine what questions they want answered and how those questions should be phrased. Then they must determine the sample, or subset of the group whose attitudes they wish to measure, and finally they must determine the method for contacting respondents. Once the poll results are in, they must be analyzed, which includes determining the margin of error and the sampling error of the poll. Roots of Public Opinion Research LO 11.1: Trace the development of modern public opinion research. Conducting and Analyzing Public Opinion Polls LO 11.2: Describe the methods for conducting and analyzing different types of public opinion polls.

Chapter Outline and Learning Objectives LO 11.3: Polls may have several shortcomings that lead them to be inaccurate, including not having enough respondent options to reflect public opinion on an issue, polling those who lack the information necessary to accurately respond, inability to measure the intensity of public opinion on an issue, and the public’s lack of interest in political issues. LO 11.4: The first step in forming opinions occurs through a process known as political socialization. Demographic characteristics—including gender, race, ethnicity, age, and religion—as well as family, school, and peers all affect how we view political events and issues. The views of other people, the media, and cues from leaders and opinion makers also affect our ultimate opinions about political matters. LO 11.5: Knowledge of the public’s views on issues is often used by politicians to tailor campaigns or to drive policy decisions. If you have students who say they don’t pay attention to polls, then tell them they have absolutely no way of knowing what the public thinks. All else is empty assumptions based upon “gut” feelings. That is not what political scientists do. We use scientific methods of inquiry to come to an objective consensus. Emphasize the fact that understanding government, its mechanisms, how it works, is dependent upon these scientific methods of inquiry. Having knowledge about these scientific methods can give one a better understanding as to why the public reacts as it does. Simply rewording a question can give us a better understanding about what the public thinks. Figure 11.3 shows that using “homosexual” rather than “gay men and lesbian women” can change responses. The way a question is phrased can make a difference in our perceptions of public policy, and later how politicians vote on bills. Misunderstanding polls can give the public a false sense of public opinion. Misusing polls can disseminate faulty information to the public to help persuade public opinion in one’s favor. Shortcomings of Polling LO 11.3: Assess the potential shortcomings of polling. Forming Political Opinions LO 11.4: Analyze the process by which people form political opinions. Toward Reform: The Effects of Public Opinion on Politics LO 11.5: Evaluate the effects of public opinion on politics.

The earliest public opinion Roots of Public Opinion Research LO 11.1: Trace the development of modern public opinion research. Photo Caption: Is polling always accurate? Not only did advance polls in 1948 predict that Republican nominee Thomas E. Dewey would defeat Democratic incumbent President Harry S Truman, but based on early and incomplete vote tallies, some newspapers’ early editions published the day after the election declared Dewey the winner. Here a triumphant Truman holds aloft the Chicago Daily Tribune. The earliest public opinion Walter Lippmanns’ Public Opinion (1922) The Literary Digest fiasco (1936) Straw polls Samples The Gallup Organization Dewey vs. Truman (1948) National Election Studies To Learning Objectives

LO 11.1 What three fatal errors did the Literary Digest commit in its polling for the 1936 election? Sampling, timing, and self selection Timing, unfavorable weather conditions, and the war Unfavorable weather conditions, the war, and self selection Unfavorable weather conditions, sampling, and timing Racist data collectors, gender discrimination, and sampling To Learning Objectives

LO 11.1 What three fatal errors did the Literary Digest commit in its polling for the 1936 election? Sampling, timing, and self selection Timing, unfavorable weather conditions, and the war Unfavorable weather conditions, the war, and self selection Unfavorable weather conditions, sampling, and timing Racist data collectors, gender discrimination, and sampling To Learning Objectives 7

Conducting and Analyzing Public Opinion Polls LO 11 Conducting and Analyzing Public Opinion Polls LO 11.2: Describe the methods for conducting and analyzing different types of public opinion polls. Types of Polls Traditional phone polls Entrance polls Exit polls Tracking polls Internet polls Push polls Unscientific To Learning Objectives

Conducting Polls Determining content and phrasing the questions LO 11.2 Figure 11.3: excellent example of wording in polls questions. It can be understood in looking at the two outcomes that simply the word “homosexual” probably carries with it a negative connotation. “Gay” or “lesbian” is less threatening to most heterosexuals and therefore the answer is more positive. Of course the ignorance of the respondent could also be discussed—for example, why would one want gays and lesbians in the military but not homosexuals? Conducting Polls Determining content and phrasing the questions Ordering of content Yes/no questions versus allowing nuanced answers Selecting the sample Random sampling Stratified sampling Contacting respondents To Learning Objectives

Analyzing the Data Margin of error Sampling error +4 Results LO 11.2 Photo Caption: How can sampling affect polling results? This cartoon pokes fun at a serious shortcoming of polling—sampling error. + 4 is the average margin of error in the statistical data for polling Analyzing the Data Margin of error +4 Sampling error Results To Learning Objectives

________ polls are the most common method of polling. LO 11.2 ________ polls are the most common method of polling. Text messaging Internet Face-to-face Telephone Straw To Learning Objectives

________ polls are the most common method of polling. LO 11.2 ________ polls are the most common method of polling. Text messaging Internet Face-to-face Telephone Straw To Learning Objectives 12

Limited respondent options Lack of information Difficulty measuring Photo Caption: Can polls measure intensity of opinion? One of the greatest shortcomings of most public opinion polls is that they measure direction of public opinion, but not intensity. Here, a member of Westboro Baptist Church demonstrates intense opposition to homosexuality by protesting at a military funeral. Shortcomings of Polling LO 11.3: Assess the potential shortcomings of polling. Limited respondent options V.O. Key Jr. Feeling thermometer Lack of information Screening procedures Difficulty measuring intensity Abortion versus the Electoral College Lack of interest in political issues Foreign policy versus domestic policy To Learning Objectives

What is a “feeling thermometer”? LO 11.3 What is a “feeling thermometer”? A statistical tool used to determine margins of error There is no such thing as a feeling thermometer. A product of the Obama campaign to determine crowd enthusiasm An electronic device similar to a lie detector that measures a person’s pulse to determine excitability about an issue Questions used by the National Elections Studies to determine how a person feels about an issue. To Learning Objectives

What is a “feeling thermometer”? LO 11.3 What is a “feeling thermometer”? A statistical tool used to determine margins of error There is no such thing as a feeling thermometer. A product of the Obama campaign to determine crowd enthusiasm An electronic device similar to a lie detector that measures a person’s pulse to determine excitability about an issue Questions used by the National Elections Studies to determine how a person feels about an issue. To Learning Objectives 15

Demographic Characteristics Photo Caption: Does religion influence public opinion? There is a strong correlation between individuals’ religious identification and their views on political issues. Here, President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama meet with Pope Benedict XVI, the leader of Catholics worldwide. Many Catholics believe strongly in the social justice values of the Democratic Party. Forming Political Opinions LO 11.4: Analyze the process by which people form political opinions. Demographic Characteristics Gender Women generally more liberal Race and ethnicity People of color, generally more liberal Foreign policy, perceptions of government, domestic policy Age Eras born in effect political behavior Religion Many American ideals rooted in Protestant heritage To Learning Objectives

Forming Political Opinions Photo Caption: When are political values shaped? Political values begin to form during childhood. Forming Political Opinions Family Most influential from birth to age 5 Peers Most influential from middle to high school Peer groups such as the Girl/Boy Scouts School Civics classes Pledge of Allegiance Tocqueville To Learning Objectives

Forming Political Opinions Mass media Television Cues from leaders or opinion makers President Congressional leaders Political knowledge Political illiteracy To Learning Objectives

LO 11.4 About ________ viewers watch the Tonight Show or The Daily Show, as watch CNN or FOX News for their news sources. twice as many half as many the same number of five times as many one-tenth as many To Learning Objectives

LO 11.4 About ________ viewers watch the Tonight Show or The Daily Show, as watch CNN or FOX News for their news sources. twice as many half as many the same number of five times as many one-tenth as many To Learning Objectives 20

May influence the course of public policy Toward Reform: The Effects of Public Opinion on Politics LO 11.5: Evaluate the effects of public opinion on politics. Photo Caption: How susceptible are polls to short-term forces? This cartoon is a humorous take on the frequent fluctuations of public opinion as the electorate responds to changing events. May influence the course of public policy The Pew Research Center Monika Lewinsky Social Security To Learning Objectives

The authors of The Federalist Papers noted what? LO 11.5 The authors of The Federalist Papers noted what? “All government rests on public opinion.” “Public opinion is the evil of public policy.” “Public policy should never be affected by public opinion.” “Public opinion is best when it falls on the deaf ears of government.” “All governments should fear public opinion.” To Learning Objectives

The authors of The Federalist Papers noted what? LO 11.5 The authors of The Federalist Papers noted what? “All government rests on public opinion.” “Public opinion is the evil of public policy.” “Public policy should never be affected by public opinion.” “Public opinion is best when it falls on the deaf ears of government.” “All governments should fear public opinion.” To Learning Objectives 23

To Learning Objectives

Figure 11.1: How successful has the Gallup Poll been? Back To Learning Objectives

Figure 11.2: What does a daily tracking poll look like? Back To Learning Objectives

Figure 11.3: Why does question wording matter? Back To Learning Objectives

Figure 11.4: What are the ideological self-identifications of first-year college students? Back To Learning Objectives

Figure 11.5: How have references to public opinion polls in the news increased over time? Back To Learning Objectives

Table 11.1: Do men and women think differently about political issues? Back To Learning Objectives

Table 11.2: What is the extent of Americans’ political knowledge? Back To Learning Objectives