ENSO-NAO interactions via the stratosphere

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Presentation transcript:

ENSO-NAO interactions via the stratosphere Sarah Ineson and Adam Scaife 2007 © Crown copyright 2007

Stratospheric response to El Niño Hamilton, 1993 © Crown copyright 2007

Impact of 1940-42 El Niño on Europe Brönnimann et al., 2004 © Crown copyright 2007

Stratosphere-troposphere link Manzini et al, 2006 © Crown copyright 2007

Impact of El Niño on North Atlantic climate January-February PMSL anomaly Moderate Strong Toniazzo and Scaife, 2006 © Crown copyright 2007

Experiment design L60 HadGAM1, 4-member ensemble, 1960-2002, observed SST ENSO years defined based on DJF Niño3 SST anomaly Warm years: 1965/66, 1972/73, 1982/83, 1986/87, 1991/92, 1997/98 Cold years: 1967/68, 1970/71, 1973/74, 1975/76, 1984/85, 1988/89, 1999/2000 El Niño (La Niña) composites are formed from warm (cold) years – neutral years Runs in progress – currently at 1995! © Crown copyright 2007

Model NH stratospheric response to QBO u46 hPa 10°N -10°S z46 hPa +ve QBO -ve QBO © Crown copyright 2007

Model response to warm and cold ENSO composites DJF geopotential height, Z, 46hPa Warm Cold © Crown copyright 2007

Model response to El Niño composites Jan-Feb PMSL Jan-Feb T2m © Crown copyright 2007

DJF stationary eddy height anomaly 500hPa Manzini et al., 2006 L60 HadGAM1 © Crown copyright 2007

DJF stationary height anomaly at 50°N Manzini, 2006 © Crown copyright 2007 L60 HadGAM1

L38 HadGAM1 vs L60 HadGAM1 vertical resolution © Crown copyright 2007

L60 - L38 HadGAM1 comparison DJF Z 46hPa composite for El Niño events, 1982/83, 1986/87, 1991/92 L60 HadGAM1 L38 HadGAM1 (climate resolution) © Crown copyright 2007

L60 - L38 HadGAM1 comparison Jan-Feb PMSL composite for El Niño events, 1982/83, 1986/87, 1991/92 © Crown copyright 2007

Summary Potential link for northern hemisphere winter ENSO – NAO interaction Ongoing experiments with L60 HadGAM1 show an infilling of the polar vortex and a negative NAO/AO signal associated with El Niño. Comparison between L60 and L38 HadGAM1 shows an enhanced lower stratospheric response in L60 HadGAM1. The tropospheric surface response differs between the models. Potential to increase capability for seasonal prediction for Europe in winter © Crown copyright 2007

Questions? © Crown copyright 2007

© Crown copyright 2007