Why Understanding Population is Necessary Populations Perils Why Understanding Population is Necessary https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sc4HxPxNrZ0 Jeff Cherry - KISD

Explosion? Jeff Cherry - KISD

Or Implosion? From an elderly world, to possible extinction. Jeff Cherry - KISD

Basic Global Demographics 7. 2 billion on earth in 2014. http://www 273 births per minute 16,020 an hour 392,714 births a day 143,341,000 births a year 2014 estimates 108 people die per minute 6,420 an hour die 155,505 a day die 56,759,000 deaths per year A net global population gain of over 86.5 million annually Jeff Cherry - KISD

Mental Map the world of Katy! Include to the best of your ability: Major roads, schools, places of business, shopping and restaurants You have 10 minutes!! With no devices or other aid, finish the rest of the map provided with your mental atlas! Jeff Cherry - KISD

What is overpopulation? Are we overpopulated? What is overpopulation? Overpopulation is essentially, too many people for the available resources. Jeff Cherry - KISD

Where are we overpopulated? LDC’s (Least Developed Countries)have difficulty overcoming the effects of too many people. MDC’s (Most Developed Countries) are guilty of overconsumption of the world’s resources. Jeff Cherry - KISD

Carrying Capacity How long can we sustain? Carrying capacity is the world’s ability to support and sustain life. “sustainability” Is this a global, regional, or local scale question? It’s all three How long can we sustain? Jeff Cherry - KISD

What carrying capacity issues are at stake? Jeff Cherry - KISD

Population growth has placed stress on environment, which: Means more farms and erodes more soil Means more fishing and depletes the oceans Means more mining and consumes more minerals/fuels Means more structures to builds while cutting and destroying forests and farm land (again) All of this made more problematic by 4-fold population increases in the 20th century And for context…only 30% of earth is land. Only fraction (1/3) of that is habitable/arable. Jeff Cherry - KISD

So what does this really mean? Meaning essentially only 10% of the earth is habitable, for an increasing population who wishes to live a highly consumable lifestyle across the planet. Something’s gotta give!! Jeff Cherry - KISD

Population Distribution Jeff Cherry - KISD

An even better look Jeff Cherry - KISD

Arithmetic Density measures the number of people per unit or area (per Mile/km) Jeff Cherry - KISD

Physiological Density number of people per unit area of ARABLE land Which type of density if most useful and accurate? Jeff Cherry - KISD

Cartogram – showing uneven population distribution Jeff Cherry - KISD

Total Fertility Rate (# of children per female) Replacement 2.1 Current worldwide 2.5 MDC’s = 1.6 LDC’s = 4.3 Rate of natural increase worldwide 1.2% MDC’s 0.1% LDC’s 2.4% Jeff Cherry - KISD

What has the rate of growth looked like through history? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BbkQiQyaYc Jeff Cherry - KISD

The J curve Jeff Cherry - KISD

Jeff Cherry - KISD

Industrial Revolution Late 1700’s to early 1800’s in England. Inventions and innovations led to machinery. This led to factories being built using iron and coal. Textiles (clothes) industry became mechanized. Jeff Cherry - KISD

Industrial Revolution This would lead to more people moving to the cities. Better healthcare, sanitation, leads to longer life-expectancy. People continued to have large families. What’s the result? EXPONENTIAL GROWTH Jeff Cherry - KISD

Thomas Malthus’ Prediction British economist and minister predicted a population explosion. Food will continue to increase arithmetically while population will increase exponentially. Food 1+1+1+1= 4 Population 1+1=2 x 2=4 x 2=8 Jeff Cherry - KISD

Malthus and Carrying Capacity Will population growth exceed the carrying capacity? Who will be the winners, and who will be the losers? Jeff Cherry - KISD

Demographic Transition Model A process with several stages that societies go through that illustrates population growth and development. Stage 1 – Low Growth Stage 2 – High Growth Stage 3 – Moderate Growth Stage 4 – Low Growth Stage 5 – No growth or declining population Jeff Cherry - KISD

Jeff Cherry - KISD

Jeff Cherry - KISD

Can you figure out what stage? Jeff Cherry - KISD

Jeff Cherry - KISD

Jeff Cherry - KISD

IMPLOSION – deaths exceeding births! Will modernization spell the doom of some societies? Many of the world’s countries are seeing below replacement levels (2.1 children per female) of population. Jeff Cherry - KISD

Why are women having fewer children: Later marriage Delaying childbirth (these two are different) Higher cost of raising children Urbanization Status of women Higher education levels Higher economic status Germany Statistic – In 2008, 39% of German women had reached the age of 40 without having had a child Jeff Cherry - KISD

Who is faced with implosive demographics today? Russia -0.6% NIR 142 mill. 2009 to 133 mill. In 2025 Germany -0.2% NIR 82.4 mill. 2009 to 79 mill. In 2025 Italy 0.0% NIR 61 mill. 2009 to 61 mill. In 2025 Japan -0.0% NIR 127.6 mill. 2009 to 119.3 mill. In 2025 Jeff Cherry - KISD

What are the risks of implosion? The “graying” of the population. A shrinking taxpayer base. Why? How does migration and mobility effect the graying problem? Jeff Cherry - KISD

The Future?? Conservative view is that the world’s population will see 9.5 billion by the year 2050. We may then see a gradual leveling off. 10% of the world will be over 65 years old! Jeff Cherry - KISD

Health and Population Dynamics Jeff Cherry - KISD