Construction of nature reserves

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Presentation transcript:

Construction of nature reserves Program WORLDMAP Input data: Species diversity Cost of unit area Presence of other species, ……..

Measures of diversity Number of species Number of species from predefined group (selective richness) Range centers Subtree length – phylogenetical coverage

Measures of rarity Range size rarity – count species with limited range Range centers

Spatial turnover Range edges Spatial heterogeneity

Construction of nature reserves Hotspots Complementarity areas Minimizing costs Comparison with random selection

Population viability analysis (PVA)

What is PVA Analysis of all possible factors affecting survival of a species/population and assessment of probability of recovery in a given time period

What affects population viability Demographic stochasticity Environmental stochasticity Catastrophes/Disturbances Genetic processes

Parts of PVA Local population dynamics Number of populations and spatial position Population sizes Carrying capacity Frequency and effect of catastrophes Effects of inbreeding Migration Occurrence of suitable unoccupied habitats

Types of models Precision of information Spatial and temporal scale Studied parameter (individual, population…)

Precision of information

Information on local population dynamics Complete population dynamics Only population growth rate and its variations Relationship to individual life span

Information on inbreeding depression Sensitivity of the species Affected fitness components Relationship between degree of inbreeding and fitness – shape of the relationship Reproductive system

Other complicating factors Density dependence Source-sink dynamics

Density dependence

Density dependence Sources of density dependence Predation Researchers

Source-sink dynamics Population size vs. local population growth rate

Studied parameter Types of models Individual-based – follow individuals Matrix-based – follow numbers of individuals Models following gene flow

Spatial scale Single local population Regional scale Total range of species

Precision x possibility to generalize Amount of information in the model Generality of the model Realism of the conclusions

Comparing results of PVA Sensitivity analysis

Sensibility of PVA Quantitative predictions vs. summarization of information Summarization of information on local population dynamics Identification of types of endangerment Assessment of effect of endangerment Comparison of different scenarios

Reliability of predictions

Predictions of local dynamics Capricorn silvereye, Zosterops lateralis chlorocephalus, Brook & Kikkawa 1998

Reliability of predictions Brook et al. 2000, summary of 21 PVA’s

Reliability of predictions Brook et al. 2000, summary of 21 PVA’s

Threshold response Territorial mammal - simulations, Lande 1987

Threshold response Pulliam 1992