Recipes for Irrational Decisions Cirrus Design Conference Dr. Warren Jensen UND Aerospace

Decision Bias Bias is our preference, based on our prior experience. Bias is our preference, based on our prior experience. It leads to subconscious assumptions, which can impact the decision process. It leads to subconscious assumptions, which can impact the decision process. As a result, we make decisions that seem reasonable, but are later viewed as As a result, we make decisions that seem reasonable, but are later viewed as

Early information is considered more important or accurate. Early impressions have preference …

Humans seek more information than they can absorb in a given time. Humans tend not to extract enough information from sources.

We consider all information to be equally reliable, when it is not. Evaluate your sources for reliability...

We usually consider only three or four options at a time, rather than a larger number.

We only consider only a few critical aspects of the problem.

More information breeds confidence in our decisions, not more accurate decisions. (Spin)

We tend to seek information that confirms our choice and avoid information that counters it. We prefer to be right, like to prove it.

We appear to have less confidence in evaluating and choosing alternatives. Poor options are given the benefit of the doubt.

What are the implications? We need to understand and recognize decision bias as it occurs. We need to understand and recognize decision bias as it occurs. What are we talking ourselves into here? What are we talking ourselves into here? How can we overcome bias? How can we overcome bias? Effective critique Effective critique Replay Replay Reconstruct Reconstruct Reflect Reflect Redirect Redirect

Summary Human bias in information gathering and decision-making is well known and common. Human bias in information gathering and decision-making is well known and common. Awareness of these biases will aid in avoiding poor decisions. Awareness of these biases will aid in avoiding poor decisions. Humans will develop strategies to most comfortably address problems, and these strategies may be inadequate. Humans will develop strategies to most comfortably address problems, and these strategies may be inadequate.