Comparison of observed switching behavior to ideal switching performance. Comparison of observed switching behavior to ideal switching performance. Conventions are similar to Figs. 2 and 3. We fit the motion direction choices using the sensitivity (k) and decision bound (Bd) on the sensory decision variable. Then, we predicted ideal switch performance based on the optimal form of switch evidence and switch bound given the expected accuracy from the sensory decision process and the experienced hazard rate (Materials and Methods). No probability weighting function was applied, and switch noise was excluded. We focused on error sequences that began when the hazard rate was larger than zero (trial three onward). (A) Accumulation of sensory evidence to a decision bound explains the proportion of correct motion direction choices. (B) The proportion of switches increases after negative feedback for choices associated with greater expected accuracy for both model predictions and subjects, but subjects’ overall switch rates are lower. (C) The switch rate increases with consecutive negative feedbacks for both model predictions and subjects, but subjects’ switch rates increase at a slower rate. (D) On the first trial after an environment change, the probability of switching to the correct environment depends on motion strength on the change trial (trial 0) for both model predictions and subjects. However, again, subjects perseverated in the old environment longer than predicted by the optimal model. Braden A. Purcell, and Roozbeh Kiani PNAS 2016;113:31:E4531-E4540 ©2016 by National Academy of Sciences