Europe at the millennium: Problems and Prospects

Europe at the millennium More peaceful -- except at the fringes More prosperous Less divided Across nations Within nations Yet, a profound sense of unease About how it would be governed Relations with the rest of the world & Europe’s place within it.

External and intra-European relations Europe continues to be made up of nation-states But most have moved beyond nationalism and beyond force as a means of resolving conflicts Resolution instead by negotiation and consensus-building within EU and other international and transnational structures

External relations Potential for great power and influence But If Europe could act in concert & If Europe were willing to commit the means But Profound disagreement about Acting alone Acting outside the UN or multilateral structures Relationships with the US & support for its projects

“Old” v. “New” Europe “Old Europe” “New Europe” France Germany Belgium Scandinavia “New Europe” Hungary Czech Republic Spain Italy Netherlands

European societies at the millennium Wealthy and prosperous Proud histories, links to the past preserved Open and willing to experiment with new forms Increasingly interconnected – via phones, rapid communications Interpenetrated (and often fascinated) with things American Yet still nationally distinct

Sources of unease Desire of outsiders – immigrants, economic refugees, asylum-seekers – to settle in Europe Maintaining prosperity and levels of welfare Sharing the benefits and burdens Within countries Across Europe

Changing patterns of conflict Early & mid 20th century: conflicts organized around deep-seated cleavages, clashing ideologies Socialism v. capitalism Role of Church and religion Democracy vs. authoritarianism

Late 20th century Waning of older ideologies – few grand ideas Acceptance of mixed economy But continuing distributional conflicts Emergence of new political forces: Green and left-libertarian parties on the left Radical right populist parties on the right

Green and left-libertarian parties Reactions against excesses and uncertainties of advanced industrial societies – especially problems of Scale and lack of internal democratic control Environmental degradation Risk of nuclear and bio-technology Capable of winning 5-10% of the vote Able to influence other parties

The new right New (and sometimes old) parties Populist in style – Opposed to big state and big government Hostile to European Union Opposed to new lifestyles – gays, feminists Hostile to immigrants, asylum seekers Pro market Populist in style – For `the people`-- not the establishment `we` v. `them` or `the other` Speak in plain, sometimes crude, language

Examples: Front Nationale in France – 10-15% in presidential elections (17% in 2002) Freedom Party (FPÖ) in Austria Former Liberal Party Under Joerg Haidar, able to mobilize 20-25% of popular vote in competition with Socialists and Christian Socials Progress Parties in Denmark and Norway New Democracy in Sweden Northern League (Lega) and National Alliance (AN) in Italy Flemish Block (Belgium) List Pim Fortuyn in the Netherlands Republikanner in Germany

Old v. new right New right pro-market – but sometimes also favours protecting ordinary citizens, small-business Rapid shifts in positions – in response to changing situations Not anti-democratic or anti-system Argue that they favour more democracy However, Parties such as National Front (France) speak in coded language and have connections to fascist parties Or soft-pedal Nazism – cf. FPÖ in Austria

Position of the new right Increasingly strong No longer excluded or taboo – increasingly included in coalition governments Able to govern for a time in Austria, Italy (with Berlusconi), Netherlands But difficulty in adapting to insider role Effective in pushing tighter immigration & asylum rules Cf. Italy Netherlands Or encouraging established parties to tighten up: e.g. New Labour in the UK

Problems Maintaining prosperity and welfare– especially for aging populations Settling distributional issues – who gets what and who influences whom Balance between wealthier and poorer regions Influence and control in an interdependent Europe