Professor John Ratcliffe, Dr Ela Krawczyk, Dr Ruth Kelly Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006 FTA and the City: Imagineering Sustainable Urban Development Professor John Ratcliffe, Dr Ela Krawczyk, Dr Ruth Kelly The Futures Academy, DIT, Ireland

THE CONTEXT Earth biosphere and technosphere systems in peril FTA and the City THE CONTEXT Earth biosphere and technosphere systems in peril Global cities in profound transition Accelerating process of urbanisation Complexity of urban and regional systems Need for vision and imagineering

CONTEMPORARY CITY PLANNING FTA and the City CONTEMPORARY CITY PLANNING Past planning Failures Failure of the planning professions Failure of governance Failure of business

PRESENT PLANNING PROBLEMS FTA and the City PRESENT PLANNING PROBLEMS Change, complexity and uncertainty Lack of an integrated approach Short-term orientation Obsolescence of the ‘predict and provide’ model Limited collaboration of stakeholders

CHARTING AND NAVIGATING THE CITY TECHNOSPEHERE FTA and the City CHARTING AND NAVIGATING THE CITY TECHNOSPEHERE City Capital as the basis for developing a strategic agenda Type of City Capital Intellectual and Social Capital Democratic Capital Cultural Capital Environmental Capital Technical Capital Financial Capital

PLANNING VERSUS FUTURES FTA and the City PLANNING VERSUS FUTURES Traditional Planning Futures Approach Perspective Partial, ‘everything else being equal’. Overall, ‘nothing else being equal’. Variables Quantitative, objective, known. Qualitative, subjective, hidden. Relationships Statistical, stable structures. Dynamic, emerging structures. Explanation The past explains the present. The future is the raison d’etre of the present. Picture of Future Simple and certain. Multiple and uncertain. Method Deterministic and quantitative models. Qualitative, behavioural and stochastic models. Attitude to the future Passive or adaptive (the future will be). Active and creative (the future is shaped). Differences between traditional planning and futures approach (Lindgren & Bandhold, 2003)

FUTURES-ORIENTED THINKING THROUGH CITY PROSPECTIVE FTA and the City FUTURES-ORIENTED THINKING THROUGH CITY PROSPECTIVE City Prospective Through Scenarios Prospective and the Preferred Future Strategic Foresight Activity Scenarios for Cities Prospective Through Scenarios

THE PROSPECTIVE PROCESS FTA and the City THE PROSPECTIVE PROCESS Identification of driving forces of change Determination of main issues and trends shaping the future Clarification of the level of impact and degree of uncertainty Establishment of scenario logics Creation of different scenario stories Exploration of the future Formulation of the problem / strategic question Identification of the main actors present on the scene Recognition of factors responsible for the current situation Identification of the key-issues characteristic for the present state Understanding of interactions between actors and factors Understanding of the past and present Generating policy proposals and suggestions for action Development of indicators to measure the progress Identification of bodies responsible for action Development of mechanisms for revising the vision and generating new suggestions in order to respond to changing conditions Recommendations and suggestion for the implementation of the vision Generation of ideas what is desirable Agreeing a vision of the desired future shared by all stakeholders and sections of society Development of the most desirable future vision

THE INTELLIGENT CITY Motivation for ICT and FTA FTA and the City THE INTELLIGENT CITY Motivation for ICT and FTA FTA and the Urban Question FTA can be used to discern the broader spatial or territorial implications of ICT growth. Broader Spatial and Territorial Dimensions

THE WAY FORWARD? Gaia and FTA? A Unified Theory of Sustainable Cities FTA and the City THE WAY FORWARD? Gaia and FTA? Gaia is a precise statement of the systematic Interaction of the organic and inorganic elements of Biosphere. It tolerates free agency, assumes an Adaptive relationship between agents and their Environment, yet allows the limits to adaptation to be calculated and forecast. A Unified Theory of Sustainable Cities Can a Unified Theory of Sustainable Cities be formulated using Futures-Oriented Technology Assessment, thereby, ‘imagineering the future of Sustainable urban development?

Thank you for your attention! FTA and the City Thank you for your attention! Dr Ela Krawczyk, The Futures Academy, Dublin Institute of Technology Elzbieta.krawczyk@dit.ie