Key Issue 4: Why might the world face an overpopulation problem?

9. Malthus theory, neo- malthusians

Thomas Malthus on Population Pessimist population would outrun food supply decrease in food per person. Assumptions Populations grow exponentially. Food supply grows arithmetically. Food shortages and chaos inevitable.

Ester Boserup on population Optimist. “Necessity is the mother of invention.” Many people, but we will meet the challenge because we have to. More people=more minds=more innovation. Opposite of Malthus

Malthus: Mid 1700’s Boserup: Mid 1900’s Malthus vs. Boserup Think: Why do the dates make a difference in their theories of population?

TECHNOLOGY!!!! Although, today there are “Neo-Malthusians” who agree with Malthus. They believe that technology can only do so much and that the people who need it, don’t have access to it.

Neo-Malthusians Maybe Malthus WAS on to something… Food not only resource strained by population growth Population has outpaced economic growth Sometimes technology does more hurt than good Green Revolution Lack of resources leads to violence and conflict

Population J-Curve: represents exponential growth Exponential: growth whose rate becomes ever more rapid in proportion to the growing total number or size.

Population and Resource Consumption

10. Epidemiologic stage 1 11. Stage 2 12. Stage 3 13. Stage 4 14 10. Epidemiologic stage 1 11. Stage 2 12. Stage 3 13. Stage 4 14. Stage 5?

Epidemiologic Transition Stages 1 and 2 Infectious and parasitic disease. “natural checks” according to Malthus Stages 3 and 4 Degenerative and human created disease. Increase in chronic disorders associated with aging (heart attack, etc) Possible Stage 5 Reemergence of infectious and parasitic disease.

The End http://grist.org/population/2011-10-24-population-7-billion-unpacked-a-comic/ (Look at stats on main page and then look at parts of the comic (pg. 2 and 3)