Statistical capacity building in Ethiopia: Recent experiences, needs, challenges and the way forward. Arnoldo Frigessi frigessi@medisin.uio.no University of Oslo

Professor in Statistics at Medical Faculty UiO Leader of a center for innovation BigInsight In Italy until 1997 Norad (Norhed) project MASTMO with Trondheim, from 2007 Visiting professor HU Proud father

Modern statistics and big data Statistics for Ethiopia Challenges and possible actions

Statistics is not just tables

Statistics is … … predicting the future, … understanding how things work, … taking decisions in uncertain situations, from DATA.

predicting the future How will the price of coffee evolve in the next 5 months? DATA: history of prices world economy indices weather predictions production plans in Brazil & Vietnam demand outlook

understanding how things work Do vicinity to hydroelectric dams increase malaria risk? DATA: Not much. There is enough water around in rainy seasons

DATA ACTION BRIDGE OF STATISTICS

STATISTICS FOR ETHIOPIA Education: prepare students to use statistics in their job Public health: infrastructure and management Agriculture: performance Infrastructure and logistics: planning, operations and maintenance Industry: performance Energy: production, distribution, prices Communications: planning and operations Government: priorities, uncertainties … … to help accelerate development towards better living.

Of course, first of all we need … Doctors Engineers Teachers Social workers … But statisticians are cheep and make impact !

STATISTICS IN ETHIOPIA Ethiopia has high quality pedagogical competence Basic statistical education present in almost all universities. Strong Central Statistical Office MSc is Statistics in a few Universities (Addis, Jimma, Hawassa) PhD programme starting now ( 6 students in Hawassa) Excellent campus infrastructure!

MSc Mathematical and Statistical Modelling funded by NORAD ~ 2 mil USD 2007-2020 4 Ethiopia students got PhD at NTNU Started MSc in 2009 20 weeks/year teaching/supervising in Hawassa by ~10 from Norway 6 cohorts 70 graduated students! Mostly (all?) teaching in the new universities

PhD programme 2014-2020, ~ 1 mil USD Degree at HU 10 PhD fully funded + 10 partially 4 years, 25% MSc teaching 1-2 years in Norway

CHALLENGES (Electricity) (Internet) (Books) (Laptops) (Offices/places to study)

CHALLENGES Lack of experienced staff/professors, too few with PhD. Number of students per staff 2-3 times too high. Insufficient English. Too little time available to study and work. Curriculum still too abstract. More project based! Too little contact with real world: Industry, Government, Hospitals, Businesses, …

CHALLENGES Academic hierarchies Career not enough based on results Gender balance insufficient Almost no “senior” mentors International network too weak

THE WAY FORWARD Statistics should contribute more to society! Go out in the real society, find data to solve problems. Impact! Statistics should have more dialogue with industries! A statistician in every business! Teachers from industry. Crossdisciplinarity! More joint projects across disciplines and faculties Teach less theory and more problem solving. Practical competence. Make a national plan to provide statistical capacity and competence: 400 MSc and 100 PhD in 10 years.

THE WAY FORWARD Strengthen legitimacy of academia! Every country needs academic think-tanks that contribute to society: free, critical, constructive. A more flat academic organisation! Academic leadership linked to results. Stable, clear, easy and enforced rules. Support gender parity and diversity Support a national plan to provide statistical capacity and competence: 400 MSc and 100 PhD in 10 years.

CAPACITY BUILDING starts where we are small steps, important steps long term perspective, but with short term aims incentives.

the national plan for Ethiopian statistics EthioStat2030 – the national plan for Ethiopian statistics 100 PhD 400 MSc 100 industrial projects 100 International academic visits 10 Courses revised 10 meetings with the Minister 20 mil USD from international collaborations in the next 10 years?