10th CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC 2010 October 11-13 2006 Annual Operational Evaluation of the Environment Canada Air Quality Modelling System - AURAMS Jack Chen, L.Boucher, S.Cousineau, D.Davignon, A.Duhamel, S.Gilbert, J.Racine, M.Sassi, M.Samaali Air Quality Modelling Applications Section, Environment Canada, Montreal, QC 10th CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC 2010 October 11-13

Outline Modelling platform for policy scenarios Model configuration for 2006 annual simulation Integrated model evaluation database Preliminary annual model evaluation results O3, PM2.5, NO2, Speciated PM2.5 Evaluation by geospatial attribute Future work

Air Quality Modelling Platform Comprehensive modelling platform for emission scenario simulations Quantify air quality impacts across different regions and cities in Canada with respect to policy and regulatory proposals (e.g. Biodiesel fuel) Results to be used for health impact assessments, and ecosystem impact analysis (e.g. acid deposition critical load)

AQ Modelling Framework Model verification Emission scenario comparisons Health impact analysis Ecosystem impact analysis Canadian operational weather forecast model (GEM) “off-line” sectional PM regional air-quality model (CTM)

AURAMS CTM / Emissions AURAMS v1.4 Emissions (SMOKE v2.4) modified ADOM-II gas-phase and aqueous-phase chemical mechanism; ISORROPIA inorganic aerosol module sectional representation of PM size distribution (12 bins from 0.01 to 41 µm diameter) nine PM chemical components: SO4, NO3, NH4, EC, POM, SOM, CM, SS, H2O Monthly varying O3 BCON with dynamic tropopause adjustment Emissions (SMOKE v2.4) Canada: 2006 NPRI USA: 2005 NEI version 4 (EPA emissions clearinghouse) Mexico: 1999 from (EPA emissions clearinghouse) Biogenic with BEIS v3.09 integrated online

Domain and Simulation Setup GEM meteorology (rotated lat/lon proj.): - variable resolution (575 x 641) - uniform core (432 x 565) at ~15km - 58 vertical layers AURAMS CTM (polar stereo. proj.): - outer domain 45-km at 60oN - Inner domains: 22.5-km - 28 vertical layers AURAMS run in 3 segments (1) 2005-12-10 to 2006-06-01 (2) 2006-05-01 to 2006-10-01 (3) 2006-06-01 to 2006-12-31

Model Evaluation Database System Goal: a systematic, comprehensive model evaluation tool that allows traceability, reproducibility and automation Central storage of measured and modelled data in a relational database Open source software: PostgreSQL + PostGIS spatial extension Visualization: Quantum GIS, Google Earth, or direct connection to DB Dynamic data queries base on chemical species, time, location, obs. measurement methods, and any geospatial attributes

Measurement Data In DB O3 – Hourly measurements from EC NAPS (194 stations) and EPA AQS (1147 stations) NO2 – Hourly measurements from EC NAPS (136 stations) and from EPA AQS (399 stations) PM2.5 – Hourly measurements from EC NAPS (173 stations) and from EPA AQS (520 stations) Also hourly SO2, CO, NO, PM10 No 24-hr speciated PM2.5 yet * For forecast model evaluation, the database is also ingesting realtime measurement feeds from AIRNOWa and from Canadian provinces. However, since these measurements were not validate, we only used results from EPA AQS and Canada NAPS.

Spatial Comparison – 45km domain O3 Mean Bias (ppbv) NO2 Mean Bias (ppbv) % Station NO2 MB > 0 33% MB < 0 67% % Station O3 MB > 0 70% MB < 0 30% PM2.5 Mean Bias (μg/m3) % Station PM2.5 MB > 0 20% MB < 0 80%

Annual Evaluation – Hourly O3 (45km domain) Similar NME in US abd Canada Correlation: 0.5 – 0.7 Best NME in Spring, worse NME in Fall CANADA DJF MAM JJA SON YEAR NMB -16% -9% 16% 24% 3% NME 40% 32% 37% 47% 38% R 0.51 0.48 0.66 0.57 USA DJF MAM JJA SON YEAR NMB -2% 3% 15% 19% 10% NME 40% 29% 35% 41% R 0.57 0.63 0.68 0.65 avg. obs: 25 ppb avg. obs: 35 ppb

Annual Evaluation – Hourly NO2 (45km domain) Conc. variability decrease with increase temperature Correlation: 0.5 – 0.6 Best NME in Winter, worse NME in Summer CANADA DJF MAM JJA SON YEAR NMB -35% -32% -20% -28% NME 57% 64% 66% 61% 62% R 0.48 0.47 0.49 USA DJF MAM JJA SON YEAR NMB -24% -18% -6% -15% -16% NME 51% 62% 69% 58% 59% R 0.59 0.56 0.51 0.58 avg. obs: 8 ppb avg. obs: 10 ppb

Annual Evaluation – Hourly PM2.5 (45km domain) Conc. variability increase with increase temperature Poorer correlation: 0.1 – 0.4 Best NME in Summer, worse NME in Fall (Canada), Winter (US) CANADA DJF MAM JJA SON YEAR NMB -14% -8% -16% 9% NME 77% 73% 65% 81% R 0.29 0.13 0.35 0.33 0.20 USA DJF MAM JJA SON YEAR NMB -34% -35% -31% -21% NME 63% 57% 62% 61% R 0.39 0.34 0.40 0.35 0.38 avg. obs: 6 μg/m3 avg. obs: 8 μg/m3

Preliminary Speciated PM2.5 (22.5km domains) Daily averaged measurements from EC NAPS Sample once every two days 32-36 stations for PNO3, PSO4, PNH4 12 stations for PEC and POC “No speciated PM2.5 from IMPROVE and EPA AQS”

Speciated PM2.5 – Ammonium (22.5km domains) DJF MAM JJA SON YEAR N. 431 412 532 538 1868 Obs. Mean 1.0 0.8 0.7 Mod. Mean 0.6 0.9 NMB -38% -1% 17% 25% 0% NME 57% 61% 66% 67% 62% R 0.70 0.73 0.68 0.64

Speciated PM2.5 – Sulfate (22.5km domains) DJF MAM JJA SON YEAR N. 433 415 534 541 1923 Obs. Mean 1.7 1.8 2.4 1.9 Mod. Mean 0.8 1.0 2.2 1.3 1.4 NMB -56% -44% -10% -28% -30% NME 63% 56% 59% 55% 58% R 0.62 0.74 0.69 0.55 0.65

Speciated PM2.5 – Nitrate (22.5km domains) DJF MAM JJA SON YEAR N. 409 366 455 509 1739 Obs. Mean 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.7 Mod. Mean 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.1 NMB -40% 52% 457% 126% 43% NME 67% 125% 511% 158% 122% R 0.63 0.55 0.23 0.54 0.43 High conc. variability in winter, model under-predicts but good correlation Very poor performance as temperature increases ** There are known biases in NAPS PNO3 from sample loss

Speciated PM2.5 – Total EC2.5 (22.5km domains) DJF MAM JJA SON YEAR N. 200 175 245 279 899 Obs. Mean 0.8 0.6 0.7 Mod. Mean 0.5 NMB 22% 32% 14% 59% 33% NME 99% 100% 90% 138% 109% R 0.14 0.24 0.48 0.19 0.22

Speciated PM2.5 – Total OC2.5 (22.5km domains) DJF MAM JJA SON YEAR N. 209 204 280 302 995 Obs. Mean 7.6 6.8 7.9 7.2 7.4 Mod. Mean 2.1 1.9 2.6 2.4 2.3 NMB -73% -67% -69% NME 75% 73% 67% 70% 71% R 0.10 0.28 0.47 0.37 0.26 Under prediction in all season, poor correlation 2 product SOA module, with constant yield No semi volatile organic Under represent biogenic SOA

Geospatial Evaluation by Population Density (22.5km domains) Pop. Density (ppl./km2) O3 Station PM2.5 Station NO2 Station Urban > 4,000 13 11 Suburban 4,000 – 1,000 51 50 43 Semirural 1,000 – 100 46 38 Rural < 100 76 41

Current / Future work Continue with verification DB development speciated PM2.5 from NAPS, IMPROVE, EPA AQS additional measurements: wet/dry deposition (NADP, CAPMoN, CASTNet etc.) Explore other geospatial criteria to examine measurement data and model performance (i.e. by distance from road network, LULC, etc.) Emission scenario modelling with the model platform Impacts of biodiesel fuels on air quality Canadian AQ impacts from US Transport Rule

Thank you!