Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis of the California Current Circulation and Ecosystem using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) Andy Moore, Emanuele.

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Presentation transcript:

Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis of the California Current Circulation and Ecosystem using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) Andy Moore, Emanuele DiLorenzo, Hernan Arango, Craig Lewis, Zack Powell, Arthur Miller, Bruce Cornuelle

Outline The ROMS system The California Current Model configuration Physical indices that characterize flow Examples of sensitivities and variations Summary

The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) Hydrostatic, Boussinesq, primitive eqn Free surface Terrain following coordinates Generalized, orthogonal, curvilinear coordinates in horizontal Open boundaries Nesting capabilities All parallel applications

ROMS Versions myroms.org Nonlinear Perturbation tangent linear Finite-amplitude tangent linear Adjoint of tangent linear myroms.org

Eigenmodes & Singular Value Decomposition (ARPACK-based) Eigenmodes of Singular vectors: Forcing singular vectors: Stochastic optimals: Hankel singular vectors: Pseudospectra

4-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation (4DVAR) Strong constraint, incremental, 4DVAR - Intra-Americas Sea (myroms.org/ias) Weak constraint, representer-based, 4DVAR

Explorer of the Seas (Royal Caribbean CL) We, however, are very fortunate to be aboard a far more luxurious and salubrious vessel which is also operates in a research capacity!

4-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation (4DVAR) Strong constraint, incremental, 4DVAR - Intra-Americas Sea (myroms.org/ias) Weak constraint, representer-based, 4DVAR

Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis: Application to the California Current System

The California Current (CC) High CC circulation and biology controlled by upwelling, instability, topography and bathymetry. Sensitivity analysis can be used to unravel this complex system and test hypotheses.

The ROMS SCB Domain Outer domain: 20km res, 20 levels. Inner domain: Derives boundary conditions from the outer domain. 20km resolution; forced by NCEP climatological winds and surface fluxes 50 years outer, 10 years inner, last 5 years considered here..

Seasonal Circulation Index Regions JSST JKE April Mean SST

Indices “Eady Index” An index of potential for baroclinic instability NEW: We consider time integrals in our functionals which is not normally done – so we require time integrals of adjoint variables. “Eady Index” An index of potential for baroclinic instability

What Physical Processes are likely to Influence J? Signatures visible in time evolving adjoint fields Turbulence/ wave breaking Advection Long Rossby Waves Instability We can identify the influence of each of these processes on J by looking at different adjoint fields. Q, P-E+R Short Rossby Waves Advection Coastally Trapped Waves & Tides

Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Forcing Adjoint ROMS

Sensitivities of JSST to surface forcing NEW: We consider sensitivity to time average forcings – so we must force the adjoint model appropriately.

Summary of Sensitivities Spring Summer Autumn Winter T T v v

Summary and Conclusions The CC coastal SST, KE and baroclinic instability exhibit pronounced seasonal variations in sensitivity to surface forcing. Sensitivities vary by a factor ~2-4 throughout the year, but some years variations are larger (~5-10). CC typically most sensitive during the Summer-Fall transition. Signatures of instability processes are apparent in many of the calculations. Significant implications for data assimilation and predictability.