COSMO-LEPS verification

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Presentation transcript:

COSMO-LEPS verification Chiara Marsigli Francesco Boccanera Andrea Montani Tiziana Paccagnella

super-ensemble (ECMWF 5RM) BSS outliers

number of RMs BSS outliers new suite

COSMO observations

obs mask 1.5 x 1.5

adjacent boxes

COSMO-LEPS vs 5RM-EPS vs 51M-EPS ROC area average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes tp > 10mm/24h tp > 20mm/24h COSMO-LEPS 5-MEMBER EPS 51-MEMBER EPS

COSMO-LEPS vs 5RM-EPS vs 51M-EPS ROC area maxima on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes tp > 30mm/24h tp > 20mm/24h tp > 50mm/24h COSMO-LEPS 5-MEMBER EPS 51-MEMBER EPS

COSMO-LEPS vs ECMWF 5 RM ROC average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes fc. range +66 tp > 20mm/24h fc. range +90

COSMO-LEPS vs ECMWF 5 RM COST-LOSS average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes tp > 10mm/24h fc. range +66 tp > 20mm/24h envelope envelope COSMO-LEPS 5-MEMBER EPS COSMO-LEPS 5-MEMBER EPS

COSMO-LEPS vs ECMWF 5 RM COST-LOSS average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes envelope fc. range +90 COSMO-LEPS 5-MEMBER EPS tp > 20mm/24h

COSMO-LEPS vs ECMWF 5 RM detscores average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes false alarm rate observed yes no a b c d forecast

COSMO-LEPS vs ECMWF 5 RM detscores average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes bias score observed yes no a b c d forecast

COSMO-LEPS vs ECMWF 5 RM detscores average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes threat score observed yes no a b c d forecast

COSMO-LEPS vs ECMWF 5 RM OUTLIERS average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes

italian observations

COSMO-LEPS - parallel suite ROC average on 0.5 x 0.5 boxes tp > 20mm/24h fc. range +90 Tiedtke Kain-Fritsch both (10-m)

COSMO-LEPS - parallel suite ROC maxima on 0.5 x 0.5 boxes tp > 50mm/24h fc. range +90 Tiedtke Kain-Fritsch both (10-m)

FINE

obs mask 0.5 x 0.5

ECMWF 5RM newsuite BSS average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes tp > 1mm/24h tp > 10mm/24h fc. range +90

ECMWF 5RM newsuite BSS average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes fc. range +114 tp > 1mm/24h tp > 10mm/24h

ECMWF 5RM newsuite BSS average on 1.5 x 1.5 boxes fc. range +114 tp > 20mm/24h

COSMO-LEPS - areas ROC average on boxes fc. range +90 tp > 1mm/24h tp > 10mm/24h

COSMO-LEPS - areas ROC average on boxes fc. range +90 tp > 20mm/24h

deterministic scores observed yes no a b c d forecast

COSMO-LEPS vs EPSrm - ndj0203 1.5 x 1.5 ave & max