Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) Ongoing development at FSL/GSD since early 1990’s. Uses wide variety of observational data. Portable system that runs efficiently. Provides traditional “LAPS” and newer STMAS analysis options. Uses RUC or other first guess for multi-scale Barnes-type analysis, followed by mass-momentum balancing including diabatic effects taking advantage of satellite and radar data Variational humidity analysis LAPS initializes “Cloud-resolving” MM5 and (now) WRF model for forecasts using RUC or NAM for lateral boundaries Analysis made part of AWIPS Build x for use in NWS WFOs. Used by many WFOs for detailed NWP over county warning areas Forecast specific applications (e.g. Fire weather, Atmospheric Rivers) Used by NASA (Cape Canaveral) and US Army (White Sands,…) ~150 users worldwide - government, academia, private sector March 9-12, 2010 NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Review - Boulder, Colorado

LAPS DA Configuration LAPS GSI Data Data Ingest STMAS3D Model prep Intermediate data files Error Covariance Trans LAPS GSI STMAS3D Trans Post proc1 Post proc2 Post proc3 Model prep WRF-ARW MM5 WRF-NMM Probabilistic Post Processing Ensemble Forecast 2

LAPS Basic Structure Data Analysis Univariate Merging/ Analysis Balancing NWP Model Initialization/ Prediction Data Very diverse Force geometric, Reconcile gridded Generate forecasts data sets smoothing constraints fields; force and user-specific to interpolate data to consistency based products high resolution grids on atmospheric scale

LAPS Diabatic Initialization Cloud Analysis Data Fusion 3DVAR Dynamic Constraint LAPSPREP NWP System LAPSPOST Surface RAOB Sat ACARS GPS Radar(Vr) Profilers Radar(Z) Sat Aircraft METAR NWP FG Data Ingest/Quality Control National NWP LBC LSM IC Native Output Forecaster Isobaric T, , p, u, v, , RH T,  qc qi, qr qs, qg c T, , p, u, v, RH Constraints: Mass Continuity u/v Time Tendencies Background Error Observation Error Adjust for Model: Hydrometeor Concen. Saturation Condition

Cloud Analysis Scheme Uses satellite Vis and IR Aircraft observations Surface observations Radar Interpolates cloud obs to grid with SCM Cloud feeds back into water vapor analysis

Updated CWB/ FSL scheme (cloud derive subr) Some dependence on cloud type, Updraft goes to top of cloud CS Strongest updrafts in regions of high reflectivity CB Downdrafts below freezing level Randomness in broad convective regions 0C Updated CWB/ FSL scheme (cloud derive subr)

Cloud/precip cross section

Illustration Initialization 5 min forecast Hot Start Cloud insertion   Initialization 5 min forecast Illustration Hot Start Cloud insertion Cloud liquid (shaded), vertical velocity (contours) and cross-section streamlines for analyses (right) and 5-min forecasts (left). The top pair shows LAPS hot-start DI with upward vertical motions where clouds are diagnosed and properly sustained cloud and vertical motions in the forecast; the bottom pair demonstrates the artificial downdraft that usually results from simply injecting cloud liquid into a model initialization without supporting updrafts or saturation. Note that cloud liquid at the top of the updraft shown in the hot-started forecast (above right) has converted to cloud ice.