THE FUTURE OF SOUTH AFRICAN FISHERIES, POLICY AND IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES Doug S Butterworth MARAM (Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group) Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa

OUTLINE I. RIGHTS II. CAPACITY III. RESOURCES IV. OTHER DAFF DEA Research III. RESOURCES Hake Anchovy West Coast Rock Lobster IV. OTHER Small scale Poaching Eco-certification – MSC and SASSI ENGOs – MPAs etc.

I. RIGHTS THE FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM OF FIXED PERIOD RIGHTS THE END OF THE PERIOD INSTABILITY LONG-TERM PLANNING PROBLEMS ANTI-CONSERVATION PRESSURES LOTTERY BASED ON WHO HAS THE MOST POLITICAL INFLUENCE AT THE TIME NEED A FULL DEBATE ON A REPLACEMENT ATTRITION?

II. CAPACITY DAFF b) DEA c) RESEARCH WEAKENING LACK OF ENGAGEMENT BY SENIOR OFFICIALS b) DEA MARINE POLICY/STRATEGIC THINKING VACUUM? c) RESEARCH EXPERTISE ERODING (Institutional support??) POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE NEED FOR MAJOR INDUSTRY INVOLVEMENT?

III. RESOURCES HAKE ANCHOVY and SARDINE c) WEST COAST ROCK LOBSTER DOWNWARD RESOURCE TREND ANTICIPATED EARLIER CATCH CUT TO ENHANCE CATCH RATES? ANCHOVY and SARDINE ANCHOVY UNDERUTILISED SARDINE PROBLEMATIC; SPATIAL MANAGEMENT c) WEST COAST ROCK LOBSTER SMALL SCALE POACHING AREA 8+ APPROACHING E.C. THRESHOLD

IV OTHER a) SMALL SCALE LACK OF CLARITY: QUANTA MONITORING ENFORCEMENT

IV OTHER b) POACHING INADEQUATE QUANTIFICATION INADEQUATE COMPLIANCE ABALONE WELL ON THE ROAD TO COMMERCIAL EXTINCTION WEST COAST ROCK LOBSTER???

IV OTHER c) ECO-CERTIFICATION SASSI MSC ONLY GAME IN TOWN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NECESSARY SASSI CONSISTENCY/STAFF STABILITY

IV OTHER d) ENGOs Short-term expediency will come back to bite you PARROT-CRIES FOR MPAs SOME DEPEND ON CREATING MORE “ISSUES” FOR FUNDING EXPECT INCREASING PRESSURES FROM ENGOs STICK TO PRINCIPLE Short-term expediency will come back to bite you

Thank you for your attention