Current status of BTS & CS harmonisation in non-EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries The 4th joint EU-OECD Workshop on Business and Consumer Opinion Surveys Brussels 12-13 October 2009 Elena Tosetto (OECD), Gyorgy Gyomai (OECD) Current status of BTS & CS harmonisation

Outline Introduction OECD Harmonised System of BTS: some quick instructions Overview of the current status of the harmonisation of the surveys in non-EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries by sector Summary table of the current status of the harmonisation (rough indication) Conclusions Current status of BTS & CS harmonisation

Introduction Globalisation: comparisons between countries and regions crucial The EU Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs established standard framework for BTS during 1970s. The OECD & the EU worked to adapt this system for use by other countries in Europe and Central Asia. Asian Pacific countries, Latin America and Caribbean region: implementation of the harmonised BTS underway Following from Nilsson (2003), overview enlarged to more sectors and more countries: Non-EU OECD Countries: Australia, Canada, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, South Korea, Switzerland, Turkey and Unites States OECD enhanced engaged economies: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa OECD (Non-EU) accession countries: Chile and Israel Sectors: Industry, Construction, Retail Trade, Services and Consumer Survey Review based on information available and methodological information sent by the countries after an OECD request by e-mail (July-August 2009) Current status of BTS & CS harmonisation

OECD Harmonised System of BTS: quick instructions Complete and detailed description: OECD “Business Tendency Surveys: a Handbook” freely available on the OECD website at http://www.oecd.org/document/36/0,3343,en_2649_34353_14638564_1_1_1_1,00.html Aim of BTS: monitor and forecast Short Term economic developments Sectors most sensitive to cyclical fluctuations: Industry, Construction, Retail Trade and Services To check inter-country comparability: frequency, coverage and format of the survey questions Current status of BTS & CS harmonisation

BTS in industry in Non-EU OECD countries: Coverage and Format of questions in individual countries corresponding to harmonised questions

BTS in industry in OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries: Coverage and Format of questions Frequency: Majority of countries surveyed conducts quarterly surveys Coverage (necessary condition): Good (broadly speaking) Format (step forward): The most harmonised industry survey Non-EU OECD countries: Switzerland ( 10 over 11 harmonised questions) OECD enhanced engaged economies & OECD accession countries: Brazil, Russia, South Africa (9 or 8 over 11)

BTS in Construction and Retail Trade in Non-EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries: Coverage and Format

BTS in Services in Non-EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries: Coverage and Format Frequency: Majority quarterly surveys (monthly: Mexico, Chile, Switzerland (Retail Trade), and the USA) Coverage (necessary condition): Good (broadly speaking) Format (step forward): The most harmonised surveys: Non-EU OECD countries: Switzerland (Construction and Services: 7 over 10 and 5 over 9) and New Zealand (Retail: 7 over 10) OECD enhanced engaged economies & OECD accession countries: South Africa (Construction & Retail)

Consumer surveys in Non-EU OECD countries: Coverage and Format of questions

Consumer surveys in OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries: Coverage and Format of questions Frequency: Majority monthly (quarterly: New Zealand, Switzerland, Turkey and South Africa) Coverage (necessary condition): Good (broadly speaking) Format (step forward): Difference mostly on the horizon

Overview of the harmonisation status of the BTS & CS in the Non EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries : Introduction Overview based on coverage & format Rough indication, no mechanical role should be applied (different importance of questions not considered) BTS: scale 1 to 5 1 = low harmonisation: num. harmonised questions (h) in format are less than ⅓ of the total h < ⅓; 2 = weak harmonisation: ⅓ ≤ h ≤ ½; 3 = can be improved: ½ < h ≤ ⅔; 4 = good harmonisation: ⅔ < h < 1; 5 = perfect harmonisation. CS: UM’s coverage as benchmark (good coverage)

Overview of the harmonisation status of the BTS & CS in the Non EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries : Summary tables

Overview of the harmonisation status of the BTS & CS in the Non EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries : Comments Manufacturing/Industry survey: more largely conducted, most harmonised (in gen. the first BTS) Other surveys: increasing importance Coverage: necessary condition for international comparisons Harmonisation of the format: step forward (better and easier comparisons) Among Non-EU OECD countries: Switzerland best combination harmonisation and coverage Among OECD enhanced engaged economies & OECD accession countries: South Africa and Chile best situations No English translation (at the time of the review): Indonesia (BTS), China (BTS & CS) No questionnaires: Retail Trade & Services for Brazil No information from India and South Korea

Conclusions Globalisation: comparisons between countries and regions crucial Adoption harmonised BTS and CS = further progress Actual analysis = Mixed picture (compare to Nilsson, 2003): Improvements: Mexico, Brazil, South Africa Step back: Canada, India Accession countries: Chile (good level)

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