State of play in developing the NEC baseline scenario Markus Amann, Janusz Cofala, Zbigniew Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) State of play in developing the NEC baseline scenario

Contents State of play Energy and transport projections CO2 projections Air pollutants: SO2, NOx, PM, VOC Agricultural emissions: NH3 Environmental impacts

State of play National energy projections implemented in GAINS in draft form – activity data sent out to national experts in mid June, feedbacks from 10 countries are incorporated. Further refinements in sectoral allocations required. Further contacts with national experts for validation. New PRIMES projections implemented. New hardware, new server software, new GAINS software, new energy data: All results presented today are provisional! All data on RAINS-online: as soon as quality control completed

National scenarios provided for the NEC review Country Energy Agriculture AUSTRIA Yes ITALY BELGIUM No LATVIA CYPRUS LITHUANIA CZECH REP. LUXEMBOURG DENMARK MALTA ESTONIA NETHERLANDS FINLAND POLAND FRANCE PORTUGAL GERMANY SLOVAKIA GREECE SLOVENIA HUNGARY SPAIN IRELAND SWEDEN UK Total 19 16

Available energy projections National energy projections for NEC, late 2005, - 19 MS (unknown assumptions on oil and carbon prices, etc.) PRIMES 2006 projections with 0, 20 and 90 € carbon price (for 50$ oil price) PRIMES “with climate policy” scenario 2004 used for CAFE (“PRIMES CAFE”) – all MS (for 30$ oil price + 20 € carbon price) PRIMES 2005 DG TREN baseline (for 50$ oil price and 5 € carbon price for ETS only) PRIMES 2005 with increased energy efficiency and renewable energy, + CCS

Energy projections for 2020 EU-25 Note: “National projections” assume PRIMES DG-TREN baseline for the 6 MS that have not submitted projections

Energy projections for 2020 (1)

Energy projections for 2020 (2)

Energy projections for 2020 (3)

Conclusions on energy projections (1) Total EU-25 energy consumption of national projections is closest to PRIMES 0 € carbon price scenario National projections foresee higher energy consumption than the PRIMES 0 € scenario for BEL, NL, IRE, DK, PT, FR National projections are lower (than the 90 € case) in FIN, SWE, SK, SL

Coal consumption projected for 2020 (1)

Coal consumption projected for 2020 (2)

Coal consumption projected for 2020 (3)

Conclusions on coal consumption For total EU-25, national projections on coal consumption 7 % higher than the PRIMES 0 € case, and 45% higher than in the 20€ case More coal consumption than in the 0 € case foreseen by Latvia (+1220%) Slovenia (+85%) Spain (+52%) Slovakia (+50%) France (+42%) Germany (+24%) Netherlands (+23%) etc.

Fuel consumption for road transport projected for 2020: EU25

Fuel consumption for road transport projected for 2020 (1)

Fuel consumption for road transport projected for 2020 (2)

Fuel consumption for road transport projected for 2020 (3)

Conclusions on road transport For EU-25, national projections foresee 3% less fuel consumption for road transport than the PRIMES 0 € case, but 1% more than the 90 € case. Rather large discrepancies for individual countries. Differences between national projections and 0€ case: Latvia: +39% Germany: -26% Netherlands: +24% Poland: -22% Austria, Ireland: +23% Sweden: -13% UK: +15% Spain: -11% Large discrepancies in the expectations on gasoline/diesel use (national projections: 33% less gasoline, 20% more diesel)

Comparison of CO2 estimates National NEC energy projection Fourth National Communication to UNFCCC PRIMES 0, 20, 90 € cases

Comparison of CO2 estimates for 1990 excl. LULUCF

CO2 emissions for 2020, EU-25 relative to UNFCCC base year emissions 100% 2000 -6% Burden sharing target 2010 -8% National NEC energy projections +1% PRIMES 0€ case -1% PRIMES 20€ case -7% PRIMES 90€ case -21% Council decision 2005 -15% - -30%

Comparison of CO2 emissions from national NEC projections and UNFCC 4th National Communications for 2020

CO2 projections for 2020 (excl. LULUCF)

Conclusions on CO2 emissions National NEC energy projections are largely consistent with 4th National Communications to UNFCCC (to the extent MS have submitted them). For EU-25, national NEC energy projections result in 2020 in a +1% CO2 increase, compared to a -7% decrease for a 20 € PRIMES case (-1% - -21%). For some MS there are serious discrepancies between the national NEC projections for 2020 and the EU burden sharing target for 2012: Ireland +55% Austria +39% Portugal +53% Netherlands +36% Spain +45% Denmark, Italy +22% Most MS (except CZ, FIN, ITA) project higher CO2 emissions than the 20€ PRIMES case

Emissions of air pollutants Should reflect current legislation Includes Commission proposal on Euro5 for diesel cars For PM: new emission factors for residential/commercial sector, more accurate information on source distribution Revised emission factors and current legislation as a result of bilateral consultations (not completed)

Comparison of SO2 projections for 2020

Comparison of NOx projections for 2020

Comparison of PM2.5 projections for 2020

Comparison of VOC projections for 2020

Air pollutant emissions as a function of CO2 mitigation (EU-25, 2020)

Conclusions Air pollutant (baseline) emissions are sensitive towards the stringency of the GHG/CO2 target For the latest PRIMES scenarios: For 1% less CO2: ~1.5% less SO2 ~1.0 % less NOx ~0.5 % less PM2.5 Thus, with the higher CO2 emissions of the national projections (compared to CAFE), also SO2, NOx and PM2.5 emissions are higher. Implications on emission control costs (e.g., for targets laid down in Thematic Strategy) need to be explored.

Agricultural emissions Zbigniew Klimont, Willem Asman International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Agricultural emissions

Ongoing improvements Moving towards N-flow model for emission calculations - preliminary version included in baseline Interactions with nitrogen policies First draft of IPPC pigs and poultry – included in baseline Explicit consideration of impacts of changed productivity (i.e., milk yields) on emissions of NH3 and CH4 – included in baseline New activity projections, also for GHGs: First version of CAP reform + national projections: – included in baseline

1. Process-based emission model Complete C and N flow included (accounting for complete impacts of measures on NH3, N2O, CH4) Following new processes will be incorporated: CH4 emission from manure N2O emission from manure N2O emission from leaching of soil water N2O emission from application of manure Nitrate runoff Nitrate leaching A number of model parameters defined on sub-national level (NUTS2, NVZ-nitrate vulnerable zones)

2. Interactions with nitrogen policies IPPC Directive (first draft of new data from integrated measures contract on IPPC farms) – done, extension for cattle will be done for policy scenarios Biomass Action plan (new PRIMES + CAPRI scenarios) – coming for policy scenarios Nitrate Directive (new emission factors and control measures + model extension) – coming for baseline and policy scenarios Water Framework Directive (new emission factors and control measures + model extension) – coming for baseline and policy scenarios

3. Productivity changes: Milk yield vs. NH3 emission factor per cow

4: New activity projections Comparison of agricultural activity projections CAFE, CAPRI Mid-term review, (EEA study), national projections

4: New activity projections Comparison of agricultural activity projections CAFE, CAPRI Mid-term review, (EEA study), national projections

Comparison of NH3 projections for 2020

Conclusions on ammonia For EU-25, national projections similar to CAPRI MTR Still different expectations in some countries In total, NEC baseline emissions lower than CAFE baseline (as suggested in CAFE sensitivity analysis) due to MTR

Environmental impacts Changes in environmental impacts from different baseline emissions, calculated with 1997 meteorology with critical loads estimates (2004) used for CAFE, with City-Delta methodology used for CAFE Improvements on these aspects are underway, but they are not used for this provisional assessment.

Loss in statistical life expectancy 2020

Percent of forest area with acid deposition exceeding critical loads

Ecosystems area with acid deposition exceeding critical loads

Ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition exceeding critical loads for eutrophication

Ecosystems area with excess of critical loads (EU-25) 2000 National NEC projection 2020 PRIMES 20€ CAFE BL 2020 Acidification: Forests 21.2% 11.3% 9.9% 10.0% Semi-natural 25.4% 8.5% 7.2% 8.4% Lakes 12.9% 9.4% 8.9% Eutrophication 59.6% 44.7% 43.8% 47.5% Based on critical loads of 2004, 1997 meteorology, CAFE methodology

Conclusions on environmental impacts Baseline projections for national energy projections as well as for the new PRIMES projections result in somewhat lower environmental damage than those estimated for CAFE. This is caused by the lower NH3 emissions (due to MTR), which more than compensate increased SO2, NOx and PM emissions resulting from the high CO2 energy projections. Low CO2 strategies have significant co-benefits on air quality.