Ag Cycles Cedar Valley Bankers Meeting New Hampton, Iowa Jan. 15, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1
Corn Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs
Soybean Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs
Corn Prices and Recessions
Crop Prices for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS
Iowa Land Values Source: Mike Duffy, ISU
Iowa Land Values – Log Scale Source: Mike Duffy, ISU
Land Values and Income Source: Mike Duffy, ISU
Land Values and Income Source: Mike Duffy, ISU
Crop Acreage Source: USDA-NASS
Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS
2014/15 Crop Margins
GDP Growth Source: USDA-ERS
GDP Growth Source: USDA-ERS
Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Iowa Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS
Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) 19 19
Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) 20 20
Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) Liquid Fuel Usage 2007 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) (Percent of 2007 Value) United States 20.6 98% 100% 102% 104% 107% Canada 2.3 96% Mexico 2.1 105% 110% 114% 129% 138% Europe 15.3 92% 88% 89% 90% Japan 5.0 84% 86% 82% China 7.6 132% 153% 178% 201% 222% India 2.8 139% 154% 168% Africa 3.1 113% 116% 126% 135% 148% Central and South America 6.0 112% 117% 125% 133% World 86.1 103% 121% 128% Source: DOE-EIA
Population 2013 2020 2050 (billion) World 7.095 7.628 9.383 China 2020 2050 (billion) World 7.095 7.628 9.383 China 1.350 1.385 India 1.657 1.221 1.326 1.304 U.S. 0.317 0.337 0.423 Indonesia 0.251 0.267 Nigeria 0.402 Brazil 0.201 Pakistan 0.214 0.300 0.193 0.212 0.291 0.175 0.208 Bangladesh 0.250 0.164 0.183 0.232 Russia 0.143 0.142 Ethiopia 0.228 Japan 0.127 0.126 Philippines 0.172 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
World Corn Markets Source: USDA 24 24
Arable Land
Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/