VII. Earthquake Mitigation Approach to earthquake mitigation Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Earthquake “forecasting” (prediction) Engineering and Building Codes Preparation in earthquake prone areas

VII. Earthquake Mitigation Approach to earthquake mitigation Main approach is survivability Requires hazard identification and risk assessment Identify areas of where materials at risk of seismic wave amplification and enhanced ground shaking risk Engineering solutions to make structures earthquake resistant Preparation and training of emergency response teams and medical personel Earthquake prediction and evacuation is not a reasonable goal in the foreseeable future

VII. Earthquake Mitigation Approach to earthquake mitigation Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Hazard Identification: deals primarily with the science defining and describing a hazard, its physical characteristics, magnitude and severity, probability and frequency, causative factors, and locations or areas affected Risk Assessment: deals with the societal impact issues Estimating vulnerability of and impact on populations, probabilities of events and magnitude, frequency and return period, mitigation planning

VII. Earthquake Mitigation Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Shaking Hazard map = statistical probability (10% chance in 50 year period) exceeding a stated level of shaking (as % of g = acceleration of gravity) Need to know… Probability of a future EQ of given magnitude (need to understand past behavior and how faults work) Response of materials to shaking (intensity) (need to understand how shaking varies with materials and how materials vary with geographic location)

VII. Earthquake Mitigation Approach to earthquake mitigation Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Earthquake “forecasting” (prediction) Long-term forecasting (probabilities of future fault slip) Based on past behavior Historical records + pre-historical records + fault mapping = total record

VII. Earthquake Mitigation Approach to earthquake mitigation Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Earthquake prediction Long-term forecasting (probabilities of future fault slip) Historical Records written and verbal accounts (100s of years) measured seismic activity (~100 years of data) distribution of earthquake activity on a both a global and local scale

Data for U.S. Earthquakes

VII. Earthquake Mitigation C. Earthquake prediction Long-term forecasting (probabilities of future fault slip) Fault mapping Understanding the distribution of faults and linkage of faults together in a fault system Faults in red active during last 4 million years

VII. Earthquake Mitigation Approach to earthquake mitigation Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Earthquake prediction Long-term forecasting (probabilities of future fault slip) Pre-historical records Geologic investigations; using the “rock record” to build a history of earthquake activity Field of study called paleo-seismology

Reading the geologic record of past events Paleo-seismology

Paleo-seismic study in sediments of a fault sag pond

Paleo-seismic study in sediments of a fault sag pond

VII. Earthquake Mitigation Approach to earthquake mitigation Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Earthquake prediction Long-term forecasting (probabilities of future fault slip) Based on past behavior Historical records + pre-historical records + fault mapping = total record Recurrence Intervals (Frequency - are we over due?) Seismic Gaps (Is a fault segment overdue?)

VII. Earthquake Mitigation Approach to earthquake mitigation Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Earthquake prediction Long-term forecasting (probabilities of future fault slip) Seismic Gaps (Is a segment of a fault overdue?) pre-1989 seismic record of San Andreas fault 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and aftershocks Source: USGS

VII. Earthquake Mitigation Approach to earthquake mitigation Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Earthquake prediction Short-term warnings Radio transmissions faster than seismic waves Potential to Shutdown public transport such as trains Shutoff gas pipelines Warn rescuers of aftershocks Tsunami warnings Use cell phone applications to warn individuals

VII. Earthquake Mitigation D. Engineering and Building Codes “Earthquakes don’t kill people buildings do” If survivability is the goal, then engineering approaches and building codes are the main solution Reinforced buildings and bridges in earthquake prone areas Identify problem soils and avoid them, anchor foundations in bedrock or use foundation isolators Avoid building sites in areas prone to landslides Images: NOAA

VII. Earthquake Mitigation D. Engineering and Building Codes “Earthquakes don’t kill people buildings do” Engineering approaches and building codes require that we know… site specific risk levels for ground shaking, including enhanced shaking (think shake hazard maps) response of buildings (of varying design) to ground shaking, requires monitoring shaking in buildings during earthquakes consider also survivability of occupants vs. survivability of the building for future use (and how much you are willing to spend)

VII. Earthquake Mitigation D. Engineering and Building Codes “Earthquakes don’t kill people buildings do” Engineering approaches and building codes require that we know… site specific risk levels for ground shaking, including enhanced shaking (think shake hazard maps) response of buildings (of varying design) to ground shaking, requires monitoring shaking in buildings during earthquakes consider also survivability of occupants vs. survivability of the building for future use (and how much you are willing to spend)

VII. Earthquake Mitigation E. Preparation in earthquake prone areas Emergency preparedness and training is essential to surviving an earthquake Coordination among emergency response agencies Fire, utilities, police, rescue, medical, public transportation Coordinate communications among emergency response teams and agencies Practice exercises – The Great Shake Out Full scale mock earthquake response exercises Decentralize emergency supplies and equipment Earthquake preparation in homes

VII. Earthquake Mitigation E. Preparation in earthquake prone areas ShakeMap – Real time shaking intensity map product from USGS Computer generated shake map (intensity) for a real earthquake generated automatically in real time Allows emergency first responders to be directed to areas with greatest needs without waiting for emergency calls and first hand on the ground accounts