Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley and Malcolm K

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Presentation transcript:

Global-Scale Temperature Patterns and Climate Forcing over the Past Six Centuries Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley and Malcolm K. Hughes, 1998: Nature, 392, 779-787 (23 April 1998) + Corrigendum: Nature, 430, 105 (1 July 2004)

Distribution of Annual Proxy Records (Mann et al. 1998)

Available Temperature Grid Boxes (from instruments) (Mann et al. 1998) Shaded = 1902-1980 Boxes = 1854 -1980

Leading EOFs of Temperature (1902-1980) (Mann et al. 1998)

Calibration/Verification Statistics (Mann et al. 1998) Calibration = 1902-1980 Verification = 1854 -1980

Proxy Reconstruction vs. Instrument Record (Mann et al. 1998) 1941 = El Niño year

Proxy Reconstruction vs. Documentary Evidence 1791 = strong El Niño year 1816 = after Tambora eruption (April 1815) (Mann et al. 1998)

Trends in Reconstructed Principal Components (Mann et al. 1998)

Trend in Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere Temperature (Mann et al. 1998)

NH Reconstructed T vs. Candidate Forcings NH Temperature Solar Log(CO2) Correlation of 200-yr running average NH temperature vs. forcings Dust Veil Index (Mann et al. 1998)