Corporate Finance, Concise Risk and the Cost of Capital

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Presentation transcript:

Corporate Finance, Concise Risk and the Cost of Capital Principles of Corporate Finance, Concise Second Edition Chapter 9 Risk and the Cost of Capital Slides by Matthew Will McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 1 1 1 2 1

Topics Covered Company and Project Costs of Capital Measuring the Cost of Equity Analyzing Project Risk Certainty Equivalents 2 2 2 2 3 2

Company Cost of Capital A firm’s value can be stated as the sum of the value of its various assets

Company Cost of Capital A company’s cost of capital can be compared to the CAPM required return 3.8 0.2 SML Required return Company Cost of Capital Project Beta 0.5

Company Cost of Capital IMPORTANT E, D, and V are all market values of Equity, Debt and Total Firm Value

Weighted Average Cost of Capital WACC is the traditional view of capital structure, risk and return.

Capital Structure and Equity Cost Capital Structure - the mix of debt & equity within a company Expand CAPM to include CS r = rf + B ( rm - rf ) becomes requity = rf + B ( rm - rf )

Measuring Betas The SML shows the relationship between return and risk CAPM uses Beta as a proxy for risk Other methods can be employed to determine the slope of the SML and thus Beta Regression analysis can be used to find Beta

Measuring Betas

Measuring Betas

Measuring Betas

Estimated Betas

Beta Stability % IN SAME % WITHIN ONE RISK CLASS 5 CLASS 5 CLASS YEARS LATER YEARS LATER 10 (High betas) 35 69 9 18 54 8 16 45 7 13 41 6 14 39 5 14 42 4 13 40 3 16 45 2 21 61 1 (Low betas) 40 62 Source: Sharpe and Cooper (1972)

Company Cost of Capital Company Cost of Capital (COC) is based on the average beta of the assets The average Beta of the assets is based on the % of funds in each asset Assets = Debt + Equity

Capital Structure & COC Expected Returns and Betas prior to refinancing Expected return (%) Requity=15 Rassets=12.2 Rrdebt=8 Bdebt Bassets Bequity

Company Cost of Capital simple approach Company Cost of Capital (COC) is based on the average beta of the assets The average Beta of the assets is based on the % of funds in each asset Example 1/3 New Ventures B=2.0 1/3 Expand existing business B=1.3 1/3 Plant efficiency B=0.6 AVG B of assets = 1.3

Company Cost of Capital

Asset Betas

Asset Betas

Allowing for Possible Bad Outcomes Example Project Z will produce just one cash flow, forecasted at $1 million at year 1. It is regarded as average risk, suitable for discounting at a 10% company cost of capital:

Allowing for Possible Bad Outcomes Example- continued But now you discover that the company’s engineers are behind schedule in developing the technology required for the project. They are confident it will work, but they admit to a small chance that it will not. You still see the most likely outcome as $1 million, but you also see some chance that project Z will generate zero cash flow next year.

Allowing for Possible Bad Outcomes Example- continued This might describe the initial prospects of project Z. But if technological uncertainty introduces a 10% chance of a zero cash flow, the unbiased forecast could drop to $900,000.

Table 9.2

Risk,DCF and CEQ

Risk,DCF and CEQ

Risk,DCF and CEQ Example Project A is expected to produce CF = $100 mil for each of three years. Given a risk free rate of 6%, a market premium of 8%, and beta of .75, what is the PV of the project?

Risk,DCF and CEQ Example Project A is expected to produce CF = $100 mil for each of three years. Given a risk free rate of 6%, a market premium of 8%, and beta of .75, what is the PV of the project?

Risk,DCF and CEQ Example Project A is expected to produce CF = $100 mil for each of three years. Given a risk free rate of 6%, a market premium of 8%, and beta of .75, what is the PV of the project?

Risk,DCF and CEQ Example Project A is expected to produce CF = $100 mil for each of three years. Given a risk free rate of 6%, a market premium of 8%, and beta of .75, what is the PV of the project? Now assume that the cash flows change, but are RISK FREE. What is the new PV?

Risk,DCF and CEQ Example Project A is expected to produce CF = $100 mil for each of three years. Given a risk free rate of 6%, a market premium of 8%, and beta of .75, what is the PV of the project?.. Now assume that the cash flows change, but are RISK FREE. What is the new PV?

Risk,DCF and CEQ Example Project A is expected to produce CF = $100 mil for each of three years. Given a risk free rate of 6%, a market premium of 8%, and beta of .75, what is the PV of the project?.. Now assume that the cash flows change, but are RISK FREE. What is the new PV? Since the 94.6 is risk free, we call it a Certainty Equivalent of the 100.

Risk,DCF and CEQ Example Project A is expected to produce CF = $100 mil for each of three years. Given a risk free rate of 6%, a market premium of 8%, and beta of .75, what is the PV of the project? DEDUCTION FOR RISK

Risk,DCF and CEQ Example Project A is expected to produce CF = $100 mil for each of three years. Given a risk free rate of 6%, a market premium of 8%, and beta of .75, what is the PV of the project?.. Now assume that the cash flows change, but are RISK FREE. What is the new PV? The difference between the 100 and the certainty equivalent (94.6) is 5.4%…this % can be considered the annual premium on a risky cash flow

Risk,DCF and CEQ Example Project A is expected to produce CF = $100 mil for each of three years. Given a risk free rate of 6%, a market premium of 8%, and beta of .75, what is the PV of the project?.. Now assume that the cash flows change, but are RISK FREE. What is the new PV?