Complex World Event 8 April 2015 EUROPEAN COMMISSION

SESAR in a global environment JOINT UNDERTAKING

Standardization ICAO ICAO EUROCAE RTCA ISO OGC SESAR / EUROPE NextGen ANC ICAO ICAO ICAO WORKING GROUPS EUROCAE RTCA ISO OGC SESAR / EUROPE NextGen CPs

TBO Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) “Coordinate changes/constraints on a trajectory worldwide” TBO Trajectory Synchronization Constraint management & Constraint adherence Multi Actor Framework Balancing predictability versus flexibility

Trajectory Based Operations As traffic increases More and more flights Are subject to multiple limiting factors That may originate from various ATM components Time (to fly) to predicted trajectory part Arrival Management Separation provision Collision avoidance Trajectory prediction constraints Inauguration Ceremony

The layered planning approach Flows instead of trajectories Dynamic DCB Enhanced FUA Milestone planning Complexity Management Time uncertainty some minutes Required granulaity and reliability of the Trajectory Prediction for ATM function Tactical Planning Accurate Executive Control Safety Nets Required time-horizon of trajectory prediction 1 sec 2 mins 1 day 10 secs 16 mins 3 hours Predictability required from ATM function perspective Flexibility required from AU perspective

[per operational stakeholder] Involves many actors Data visualization 4D trajectories Uncertainty Combine with MET, AIM, Flow What IF scenario’s Global actors leading Flight crew Flight operations centre Regional actors contributing Air traffic control [per operational stakeholder] Level of involvement Local traffic manager & tactical planning Network manager none 1 sec 2 mins 1 day Time-horizon of the intended trajectory 10 secs 16 mins 3 hours

Impact on trajectory changes How to deal with residual uncertainty? Can Agent Based Modeling be used to support CDM? small medium big huge Weather (2.2) Turn around processes (2.3) Variations in cockpit procedures (2.4) Navigational inaccuracy (2.5) Impact on trajectory changes [probability x magnitude] ATM intervention (2.6) 1 sec 2 mins Time-horizon between uncertainty cause and actual impact on flight 10 secs 16 mins 3 hours Take-off

Making a plan, managing changes Glue between these ATM components synchronizing the view of the trajectory between different actors ensuring consistency between constraints that originate from the various ATM components Stability and consistency of the combination of the solutions efficiently converging coordination process to find this stable and consistent combination Resilience management Inauguration Ceremony

How to access confidential information? Integrating the airline perspective How to access confidential information? Airline network ATM network Optimization theory Need for an independent view What are the interdependencies? What is optimal in the sum of the networks? How to find/agree the optimum? How to implement it?

How far can we push the conflict horizon? When unpredictability grows to the order of magnitude of the applicable separation criteria there is no point in further de-conflicting individual trajectories. Manage Uncertainty conflict horizon ATC clearance Time (to fly) to predicted trajectory part Trajectory prediction = Coordinated trajectory intention

Hypothesis Continuous corrections of the multi-aircraft system in its entirety are required to keep the system stable and safe. This does not by definition lead to a conflict between predictability and flexibility. For most purposes the only relevant element of predictability is milestone planning with tolerance levels tailored to a specific ATM function. Changes are within Tolerance Change can be compensated by AC Need to re-plan trajectories Constraint 2 (for separation or planning purposes) Aircraft intent EPP Constraint 1 (for separation or planning purposes) Alternative trajectories that would have complied with constraints

Optimize interval ensuring fluctuations to average out Milestone planning Congested runway Departure time Though the final RTA window does not match the originally planned trajectory, it does serve its purpose for arrival management Arrival time Time Initial RTA tolerance Destination Optimize interval ensuring fluctuations to average out Compliant trajectories Congested sector Final fine-tuned RTA tolerance Planned trajectory Flight distance Optimise moment to fine tune target time at Fix: Not too early, not too late Origin

High level guidance Need a mechanism that ensure consistency between constraints Promote increased predictability whilst retaining a level of flexibility that allows operators to fly as closely as possible to their business need. The tolerance range of any constraint should be commensurate with the ATM function it serves The timing for setting a constraint should be delayed as late as possible commensurate with the ATM function it serves.

Example: Trajectory prediction Data Science Who needs what For what purpose With what accuracy What update rate? Inauguration Ceremony

Example: Trajectory prediction Data Science Who needs what For what purpose With what accuracy What update rate? Inauguration Ceremony

TRAJECTORY COORDINATOR TBO needs SWIM, SWIM needs trust YEARS 6 MONTHS DAYS HOURS MINUTES ATM PLANNING PHASES LONG TERM MID TERM EXECUTION TRAJECTORY STATUS PRE-NEGOTIATION NEGOTIATION AGREED INTENT FINE TUNING TRAJECTORY COORDINATOR AIRSPACE USER NETWORK MANAGEMENT ATC Easy access to information Multiple ATM stakeholders Offer and consume ATM information from each other Easy to connect Provider and consumers build on Trust All involved parties can be trusted (authorized entities only) Exchange mechanism can be trusted (secured, reliable, on-time) No abuse of information (adequate access control) Cost reduction in ATM evolution Cost proportional to required performance level Future changes shall be faster and cheaper New security mechanisms

Resilience Engineering Security Framework More information exchanges between stakeholders Despite protective cyber security measure Need to be resilient against an attack How to design a system of systems that is resilient against a cyber attack? This requires design principles for resilience engineering Resilience Engineering

Exploratory research >> IR Deployment Phase SESAR I Industrial Research 2013-25 SESAR 2020 Exploratory Research Definition phase Create European ATM Master Plan SESAR I Exploratory Research 2009-16 SESAR 2020 Industrial Research

For more information on TBO see: http://www.sesarju.eu/newsroom/brochures-publications/trajectory-based-operations-tbo-concepts