An update based upon a presentation to the 2016 AMOS National Conference Accuracy of Melbourne Forecasts 12-Month ‘Running’ Accumulated % Variance Explained (All Lead Times) To 30-Nov-2016 Maximum Temperature: A steady increase in accuracy over the past 50+ years (at Day 1 from 50% to 90%; for Days 2-4 from 35% to 75%; and, for Days 5-7 from 20% to 50%). Day1-7: Based on BoM predictions. Beyond Day-7: Based on GFS Model predictions. ………………………………….…... : : : : ………………………………….…….. Rainfall Amount: Accuracy peaked during the very wet summer of 2010-2011 when some extreme events were very well predicted. Day 1-7: Based on BoM predictions. Beyond Day-7: Based on GFS Model predictions. BoM predictions of ‘0 mm’, when made with a PoP of at least 50%, result from ‘rounding off’ and are accordingly ‘adjusted’ : to 0.2 mm, when with a PoP of 50%, to 0.4mm, when with a PoP of greater than 50%. Refer also to: QJRMS Stern & Davidson (2015) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2559/abstract