Lev Tarasov and W.R. Peltier

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Exploratory methods to analyse output from complex environmental models Exploratory methods to analyse output from complex environmental models Adam Butler,

Advertisements

SPP 1257 Modelling of the Dynamic Earth from an Integrative Analysis of Potential Fields, Seismic Tomography and other Geophysical Data M. Kaban, A. Baranov.

Climate change detection and attribution methods Exploratory Workshop DADA, Buenos Aires, Oct 2012 Francis Zwiers, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium,

Clima en España: Pasado, presente y futuro Madrid, Spain, 11 – 13 February 1 IMEDEA (UIB - CSIC), Mallorca, SPAIN. 2 National Oceanography Centre, Southampton,

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Contributions to Tide Gauge, Altimetry and GRACE Observations Glenn Milne Dept of Earth Sciences University of Durham, UK.

Vertical Crustal Motion in the North Pacific and Implications for Tide Gauge Records and Sea Level Rise Jeff Freymueller and Christopher F. Larsen Geophysical.

A Preliminary Calibrated Deglaciation Chronology for the Eurasian Ice Complex Lev Tarasov¹, W.R. Peltier², R. Gyllencreutz³, O. Lohne³, J. Mangerud³, and.

Defining alternative climatologies: why, what for and how.

Markov-Chain Monte Carlo

Climatological Estimates of Greenland Ice Sheet Sea Level Contributions: Recent Past and Future J. E. Box Byrd Polar Research Center Understanding Sea-level.

Recent results from GRACE in Greenland and Antarctica Isabella Velicogna* and John Wahr** * ESS, University of California Irvine, Irvine CA ** Dept Of.

FORWARD AND INVERSE MODELLING OF GPS OBSERVATIONS FROM FENNOSCANDIA G.A. Milne 1, J.X. Mitrovica 2, H.-G. Scherneck 3, J.L. Davis 4, J.M. Johansson 3,

1 Institute of Engineering Mechanics Leopold-Franzens University Innsbruck, Austria, EU H.J. Pradlwarter and G.I. Schuëller Confidence.

Progress in climate-glacier-ice sheet modelling Jeremy Fyke (LANL) Bill Lipscomb (LANL) Bill Sacks (NCAR) Valentina Radic (UBC, Canada)

IORAS activities for DRAKKAR in 2006 General topic: Development of long-term flux data set for interdecadal simulations with DRAKKAR models Task: Using.

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irvine Basin Scale Precipitation Data Merging Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo.

Changes in Floods and Droughts in an Elevated CO 2 Climate Anthony M. DeAngelis Dr. Anthony J. Broccoli.

Comparison of Different Approaches NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR is Sponsored by NSF and this work is partially.

Closure of the Budget of Global Sea Level Rise Over the GRACE Era: The Importance and Magnitudes of the Corrections Required for Quaternary Ice-Age Influence.

Using Global Ocean Models to Project Sea Level Rise Robert Hallberg NOAA / GFDL.

(a) Pre-earthquake and (b) post-earthquake Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) images of North Sentinel Island. The.

The Glacial Isostatic Adjustment of Fennoscandia: from Celcius to BIFROST Glenn Milne, University of Durham February 2004.

Fast Simulators for Assessment and Propagation of Model Uncertainty* Jim Berger, M.J. Bayarri, German Molina June 20, 2001 SAMO 2001, Madrid *Project of.

Sarah Raper, Understanding Sea-level Rise and Variability, 6-9 June, 2006 Paris Glacier modeling: Current Status and Needed Improvements Sarah Raper Centre.

The good sides of Bayes Jeannot Trampert Utrecht University.

Statistical approach Statistical post-processing of LPJ output Analyse trends in global annual mean NPP based on outputs from 19 runs of the LPJ model.

A Preliminary Calibrated Deglaciation Chronology for the Eurasian Ice Complex Lev Tarasov¹, W.R. Peltier², R. Gyllencreutz³, O. Lohne³, J. Mangerud³, and.

A Bayesian Calibrated Deglacial History for the North American Ice Complex Lev Tarasov, Radford Neal, and W. R. Peltier University of Toronto.

Gaussian processes for time-series modelling by S. Roberts, M. Osborne, M. Ebden, S. Reece, N. Gibson, and S. Aigrain Philosophical Transactions A Volume.

A new calibrated deglacial drainage history for North America and evidence for an Arctic trigger for the Younger Dryas Lev Tarasov and W. R. Peltier University.

The effect of GIA models on mass-balance estimates in Antarctica Riccardo Riva, Brian Gunter, Bert Vermeersen, Roderik Lindenbergh and Hugo Schotman Department.

The Plausible Range of GIA Contributions to 3-D Motions at GPS Sites in the SNARF Network 2004 Joint AssemblyG21D-03 Mark Tamisiea 1, Jerry Mitrovica 2,

High resolution simulations of Last Glacial Maximum climate over Europe – a solution to discrepancies with observations? 1)Motivation 2)Experiment aims.

University of Kansas S. Gogineni, P. Kanagaratnam, R. Parthasarathy, V. Ramasami & D. Braaten The University of Kansas Wideband Radars for Mapping of Near.

Timing of high latitude peatland initiation since the Last Glacial Maximum Pirita Oksanen, University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences Contact.

Assessment of CCI Glacier and CCI Land cover data for hydrological modeling of the Arctic ocean drainage basin David Gustafsson, Kristina Isberg, Jörgen.

Analyzing wireless sensor network data under suppression and failure in transmission Alan E. Gelfand Institute of Statistics and Decision Sciences Duke.

The Co-evolution of continental ice cover and 3D ground temperature over the last glacial cycle Lev Tarasov Memorial University of Newfoundland (Thanks.

MCMC reconstruction of the 2 HE cascade events Dmitry Chirkin, UW Madison.

Climate Analysis Section, CGD, NCAR, USA Detection and attribution of extreme temperature and drought using an analogue-based dynamical adjustment technique.

Inferred δ 13 C and δ 18 O distributions in the modern and Last Glacial Maximum deep Atlantic Holly Dail ECCO Meeting November 1,

Continental Hydrology, Rapid Climate Change, and the Intensity of the Atlantic MOC: Insights from Paleoclimatology W.R. Peltier Department of Physics University.

CS Statistical Machine learning Lecture 25 Yuan (Alan) Qi Purdue CS Nov

Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming 大氣所碩一闕珮羽 Tamsin L. Edwards.

Consequences of changing climate for North Atlantic cod stocks and implications for fisheries management Keith Brander ICES/GLOBEC Coordinator.

Schematic framework of anthropogenic climate change drivers, impacts and responses to climate change, and their linkages (IPCC, 2007).

Reducing Photometric Redshift Uncertainties Through Galaxy Clustering

Bayesian calibration of earth systems models

Lev Tarasov¹, W.R. Peltier², R. Gyllencreutz³, O. Lohne³,

Lev Tarasov and W.R. Peltier

Paleoclimate Models (Chapter 12).

Aixue Hu and Gerald A. Meehl

Memorial University of Newfoundland

Dynamical downscaling of ERA-40 with WRF in complex terrain in Norway – comparison with ENSEMBLES U. Heikkilä, A. D. Sandvik and A.

8.2 kyr: Model + Data -> North American Meltwater Discharge

North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

Michael Epstein, Ben Calderhead, Mark A. Girolami, Lucia G. Sivilotti

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)

Detection of anthropogenic climate change

Modeling of present and Eemian stable water isotopes in precipitation

Transient simulations of the last 30,000 years, within the GENIE earth-system framework D.J. Lunt (1) M.Williamson (2) A. Price (3) P.J. Valdes (1)

Glacial/Interglacial Paleoclimate

Case Studies in Decadal Climate Predictability

THE NEED FOR DATA/MODEL INTEGRATION

by A. Dutton, A. E. Carlson, A. J. Long, G. A. Milne, P. U. Clark, R

Analysis of Southern European Cold Spells via a

Lev Tarasov, Radford Neal, and W. R. Peltier University of Toronto

Reconstructing middle Miocene tectonic boundary conditions

Fig. 1 Time series of air temperature anomalies, cumulative contribution to GMSL since 2008, and rate of GMSL rise due to mass changes of the Greenland.

Sea-Level changes.

Presentation transcript:

A Preliminary Calibrated Deglaciation Chronology for the Eurasian Ice Complex Lev Tarasov and W.R. Peltier Memorial University of Newfoundland/ University of Toronto

Inferred Greenland temperature

Glacial modelling challenges and issues: What's missing in pure geophysical reconstructions

Glacial Systems Model (GSM) 3D thermo-mechanically coupled ice-sheet model, 0.5 * 1.0 (lat/long) model resolution VM2 viscosity model detailed surface mass-balance and ice-calving modules global gravitationally self-consistent RSL solver fully coupled surface drainage solver

Climate forcing Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) precipitation and temperature from 4 (6 for N. A.) highest resolution Paleo Model Intercomparison Project GCM runs Mean and EOF fields Present day observed fields

Climate forcing time-dependence

Lots of ensemble parameters 3(5 for North America) ice dynamical 13(16) regional precipitation LGM precipitation EOFs most significant for North America 4 ice calving 4 temperature 4(2) ice margins 1 model version = 29 (32)

Need constraints -> DATA

Initial European deglacial margin chronology (Saarnisto and Lunkka, 2003) margin forcing: surface mass-balance near ice margin adjusted to fit chronology applied up to +- @100 km buffer zone

New margin chronology (Svendsen et al, per. comm., Oct/06)

RSL site weighting (U of T RSL database)

Noisy data and non-linear system => need calibration and error bars

Bayesian calibration Sample over posterior probability distribution for the ensemble parameters given fits to observational data using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods Other constraint: Minimize margin forcing

Large ensemble Bayesian calibration Bayesian neural network integrates over weight space Self-regularized Can handle local minima O(1 million) model sampling

Overall best RSL fitting models Black: new margin Red: old margin Problem with south-western Norway

Mean ensemble LGM ice thickness

ICE-5G LGM thickness

LGM: Ensemble mean - ICE-5G

1 sigma range for LGM ice thickness

Ensemble mean present-day rate of uplift

1 sigma range of ensemble rate of uplift

Deglacial eustatic sea-level chronology

Summary European contributions: Strong dependence on margin chronology LGM: 19.5 +- 1.5 m eustatic mwp1-a: 3.1 +- 0.5 m eustatic (4.9 +- 0.8 m old margin) Strong dependence on margin chronology likely problems with south-western margin chronology for Fennoscandia physical model + calibration against data => meaningful error bars/probability distributions Significant differences with ICE-5G => CAN'T IGNORE CLIMATE and ICE DYNAMICS

Key points to walk away with GSM + calibration = data and physics integration There's more to ice than just post-glacial rebound, RSL, and mantle viscosity