Voting Behaviour March 5, 2007

How do people decide who to vote for? Prospective Model (Michigan) Party identification Candidate characteristics Issue positions Retrospective Model Evaluation of the past

Party Identification “Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, and Independent, or what?” Persons who call themselves Republicans or Democrats are then asked: “Would you call yourself a strong (Republican, Democrat) or a not very strong (Republican, Democrat). Persons who call themselves Independents, answer “no preference,” or name another party are asked : “Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican or to the Democratic party?”

Distribution of Partisans (in the US)

Trends in Party id in Britain

Trends in Strength of Party id

Ideology and Partisanship

Functions of Party Identification Helps you organize and categorize information Perceptual Screen Helps you make value judgments. Is George Bush competent? Could Bill Clinton be trusted? Influence Political Behavior Persons who are party identifiers are more interested in politics, more concerned about who wins the election, and more likely to vote. party id is the most important determinant of the way people vote

Influence of Party Id

Influence of Party Id on Vote

Dynamics of 2000 Presidential Campaign Source: Johnston and Hagen (APSA 2003) “Priming and Learning: Evidence from the 2000 Annenberg Study”

Character

Perception of Gore’s Honesty

Traits of Candidates

Leadership Evaluations in Britain

Trends in British Campaigns See: Rolling Cross Section Study in 2001 BES http://bes.utdallas.edu/facts.html

Requirements for Issue Voting Aware of the issue Care about the issue Perceive difference between the candidates Correct about the difference

Criteria for Issue Voting

Retrospective Voting Party identification Evaluation of the past economic indicators, “It’s the economy, stupid” Wars Incumbency