Weibull Analysis & Parameter Estimation

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Presentation transcript:

Weibull Analysis & Parameter Estimation A Short Course on: Weibull Analysis & Parameter Estimation Presented at: Honeywell March 14 – 17, 2006 Stephen F. Duffy PhD, PE Connecticut Reserve Technologies, Inc Cleveland State University Eric H. Baker

Table of Contents Section 1 Load & Resistance (Fundamentals) Structural Reliability: Fundamentals Load/Resistance Analysis: An Approximate Approach (J. Margetson) Reliability Analysis Proof Testing: Truncated Distributions Section 2 Computing Reliability The General Case Conventional Monte Carlo Method Basic Variables and the Limit State Function Reliability Index b Interpreting the Reliability Index The Hasofer-Lind Method Solution Algorithms for Obtaining the Reliability Index (S. Mahadevan) Non-Normal Basic Variables: the Rackwitz-Fiessler Method Section 3 System Reliability & Weibull Analysis Introduction to System Reliability Series Reliability System An Introduction to Weibull Analysis Asymptotic Extreme Value Distributions Weibull Analysis Examples Proof Testing & the Weibull Distribution

Table of Contents (continued) Section 4 Parameter Estimation for Fast Fracture Strength Data Introduction to Estimation Theory Point Estimation: Preliminaries Method of Moments (overheads) Minimizing Residuals Probabilistic Regression Analysis Linear Regression – Two Parameter Weibull Distribution Probability of Failure: Ranking Schemes Method of Maximum Likelihood (MLE) MLE: Two Parameter Weibull Distribution Example - Single Flaw Distribution Confidence Bounds on Parameter Estimates (overheads ?) Multiple Flaw Populations MLEs For Multiple Flaw Distributions Example – Multiple Flaw Distributions Non-Linear Regression Analysis: Three Parameter Weibull Distribution Example – Three Parameter Weibull Distribution

Table of Contents (continued) Section 5 Time Dependent Weibull Analysis Introduction Batdorf’s Theory Subcritical Crack Growth Model Time Dependent Batdorf Model Time Dependent PIA Model Subcritical Crack Growth Model: Creep (Static Fatigue) Subcritical Crack Growth Model: Monotonic Loading (Dynamic Fatigue) Parameter Estimation: Time Dependent Strength Data