Fig. 1 Area over which VIC simulated soil moisture has been spatially averaged. Blue shadded area represents contributing area above Sacramento at Bend Bridge Fig. 2. Changes in annual mean soil moisture (simulated by VIC) over the California (Fig. 1). The median (red line) and 25th and 75th percentiles (gray shading) of the soil moisture distribution among the 16 models downscaled by the BCSD statistical method (from higher emission scenario SRESA2). Anomalies for each VIC simulation as forced by BCSD downscaled forcing are relative to that model's climatology from 1950–1999. The plot also illustrates results from VIC simulations as forced by bias-corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations. The median (black line) and 25th and 75 th percentiles (black shading) of the soil moisture distribution among the 5 RCM simulations. Anomalies for each VIC simulation as forced by bias-corrected RCM forcings are relative to that model's climatology from 1985-1994. Results have been 7-year low-pass filtered to emphasize low-frequency variability.

Fig. 3 Changes in annual mean soil moisture over California for VIC simulations as forced by downscaled meteorologies from 16 climate models. The results are relative to model climatologies from 1950–1999. The results are averaged over 20-year segments of the 21st century. The heavier solid color vertical line shows the median changes computed from the total model populations. 25th and 75th percentiles values are represented by dotted lines. Top panels: results from higher emission scenario SRESA2. Bottom panels: results lower emission scenario SRESB1.

Fig. 4a) compares routed streamflows from VIC simulations as driven by bias-corrected Regional Climate Models (RSM, WRF and RegCM3) meteorologies with observed streamflows at . The plot also includes streamflows from VIC simulation as driven by *uncorrected* RegCM3 meteorologies. Additionally, for comparison purpose, routed streamflows from VIC simulation as driven by BCSD downscaled meteorologies is also plotted. All of the downscaled methd/models use data from GFDL CM2.1 global climate model. The larger black color dot represents mean observed streamflow, along with an error bar showing the 90% range in observed streamflow over the historical period 1906-2004

Fig. 4b) same as Fig 4a), except downscaled method/models use data from NCAR CCSM3 global climate model. And, VIC results from *uncorrected* WRF meteorologies are shown in this case (Note: CCSM3-RegCM solution is yet to produce)