Seasonal Predictions for South Asia

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Presentation transcript:

Seasonal Predictions for South Asia (JJAS-2010) Sarat C. Kar sckar@ncmrwf.gov.in National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) Ministry of Earth Sciences Government of India Presented at South Asia Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF), April 13-15, 2010, Pune, India

Probabilistic Prediction: 2009 Monsoon issued in April 2009

Monsoon- 2010 Rainfall prediction Model Used- The NCMRWF Seasonal Prediction Model (InGLM1) at T80L18 resolution (1.5x1.5 degree lat-lon) The model has been integrated using the NCMRWF Initial Conditions (IC) From April 02, 03, 04, 05, 06 and 07, 2010 (6 different initial conditions) The model is forced with predicted Sea Surface Temperatures. Three different SST scenarios have been used for each IC. Total 18 member ensemble runs have been carried out. Seasonal mean rainfall anomalies have been computed with respect to Model climatology of 23 seasons (1982-2004) with 18 member ensemble. Rainfall Anomalies for JJAS-2010 based on these runs were prepared on April 10, 2010

SST Forecasts from March to December 2010 (from iri.ldeo.columbia.edu) Models indicate a range of possibilities of ENSO for JJAS-2010. Some predict present El Nino to continue but weaken; Some predict ENSO Neutral Conditions and some La Nina conditions Predictions of SST with 6 months lead time do not have good skill

This Uncertainty in SST predictions has to be included in Seasonal Predictions of Monsoon. Therefore, in our methodology, different SST scenarios are created by adding and subtracting these uncertainties at each grid point of SST predictions. The control run is without any uncertainty.

SST anomalies for (averaged over JJAS-2010) used in our runs.

Rainfall Anomalies (mm/day) obtained from each ensemble member

Rainfall Anomalies (mm/day) obtained from ensemble mean Rainfall using Top: SST Scenario-1 Middle- SST Scenario-2 Bottom: SST Scenario-3 Rainfall Anomalies (mm/day) obtained from ensemble mean Rainfall using Top: SST Scenario-1 Middle- SST Scenario-2 Bottom: SST Scenario-3

Ensemble Mean Rainfall Anomalies (mm/day) Predicted by NCMRWF INGLM1 Global Model using Predicted SST Anomalies

Probabilistic Prediction

SUMMARY of JJAS-2010 Predictions From NCMRWF Overall: All India- Possibility of Normal Rainfall Possibility of Below-Normal Rainfall over some parts of North-West India Possibility of Normal Rainfall over Rest of India Please see the caution on next slide

The NCMRWF Seasonal Prediction System is Experimental. Skill of Global Dynamic Models (world-wide) in predicting Seasonal Rainfall Anomalies over the Indian region is not very high For Predictions, It is assumed that Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) used are Correct. However, Skill of SST predictions is limited (especially from March) Model Response to correct SST forcing may not be forrect also. An Updated Forecast shall be prepared on May 20, 2010

Thank You