#EUDatathon2017 Webinar Ilias Livanos Expert, Cedefop September, 28, WebEx 25/10/ 2011

The Data: Skills Demand and Supply Projections

How was the data produced? Cedefop has engaged into skills needs forecasting since 2005. Various datasets were used (e.g. National Accounts, EU LFS), including official macroeconomic and population projections. Different modules were applied combining macroeconomic modelling and various sophisticated econometric techniques. The results go through ICE’s scrutiny.

Why is the data important? Knowledge of future employment prospects can inform an number of actors: Policy makers (education, migration etc.) Employers (recruitment policies) Employees (career moves) Individuals (future planning) Intermediaries (guidance tools)

What could be improved & limitations However detailed, users will always want more The projections do not mean to replace national forecasts but provide comparative evidence Demand and supply are not directly comparable Detailed estimates may be unreliable (<10 000) Should be combined with local knowledge and other sources of information The detailed estimates are subject to possibly large and uncertain margins of error. They should not be taken literally but suggestive of indicative trends and patterns. As a rough rule of thumb, any cell containing fewer than 10,000 people should be regarded with caution. Cells with fewer than 1,000 people should be regarded with considerable scepticism. The detailed occupational estimates are based on data from the European LFS, often covering just a few years. These have been used to forecast the shares to 2025. The LFS values used in the calculation are indicated in sheet 'Info'. For historical years the LFS share, or the share in the first LFS year available, is used. In some cases, the small sample sizes mean that individual cells of the data arrays (by country, industry and occupation) are empty or contain unreliable data. This can distort pictures of change over time. Various criteria have been used to check the estimates and to try to avoid implausible projections.

What could the data still reveal? Prospects of occupations and sectors across countries Job opportunities due to expansion & replacement Deep country, sectoral, occupational analysis Can help job mobility (immigration trends) by identifying future needs Can inform career planning tools The detailed estimates are subject to possibly large and uncertain margins of error. They should not be taken literally but suggestive of indicative trends and patterns. As a rough rule of thumb, any cell containing fewer than 10,000 people should be regarded with caution. Cells with fewer than 1,000 people should be regarded with considerable scepticism. The detailed occupational estimates are based on data from the European LFS, often covering just a few years. These have been used to forecast the shares to 2025. The LFS values used in the calculation are indicated in sheet 'Info'. For historical years the LFS share, or the share in the first LFS year available, is used. In some cases, the small sample sizes mean that individual cells of the data arrays (by country, industry and occupation) are empty or contain unreliable data. This can distort pictures of change over time. Various criteria have been used to check the estimates and to try to avoid implausible projections.

Thank you for your attention! Ilias Livanos Department for Skills and Labour Market Ilias.LIVANOS@cedefop.europa.eu