Tactical Asset Allocation Forecasting Asset Returns

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Presentation transcript:

Tactical Asset Allocation Forecasting Asset Returns Campbell R. Harvey

Forecasting Asset Returns Is predictability possible in rational markets? How does predictability influence asset allocation?

Forecasting Asset Returns What are the fundamental sources of predictability?

Forecasting Asset Returns Fundamental Valuation: Expected Cash Flows Value = -------------------------------- Expected return - Expected growth

Stock Returns and U.S. Yield Curve Average Monthly Returns in % Data through December 2001