Envisioning the Future of UN Air Power Peace From Above: Envisioning the Future of UN Air Power

SteeleUNAir Slides & Notes Online Tiny URL: http://www.tinyurl.com/SteeleUNAir These slides—with Notes—are online at Phi Beta Iota under Briefings & Lectures, and I have also created a Tiny URL, SteeleUNAir

Global Threats OLD (STATE) EMPHASIS Inter-State Conflict Civil War Proliferation Failed States Refugees NEW (HYBRID) EMPHASIS Poverty Infectious Disease Environmental Degradation Inter-State Conflict & Civil War Genocide & Other Atrocities Proliferation Terrorism Transnational Crime First, the context has changed. Peacekeeping between states, peace enforcement, and massive humanitarian assistance are largely beyond the capability of the UN as it is now trained, equipped, and organized. The new threats are both much more human—I list them on the right here—and demand two things the UN does not do well now: Hybrid operations with diverse multinational players sharing an operations centre; and Deep honest timely decision-support not available from Member nations.

Peacekeeping OLD (STATE) EMPHASIS Sovereignty Borders Governments Armed Forces No Intelligence Veto Possible/Decisive Marginal Outcomes NEW (HYBRID) EMPHASIS Legitimacy Human Rights Public Health Precision Giving Precision Intelligence Veto Unlikely/Irrelevant Sustainable Outcomes In that vein, I continue here with the old versus the new. Please note that in the past the UN has enjoyed relatively poor intelligence support, if not outright deception, from the Member states, and what we need now is Precision Intelligence. Vetoes no longer matter. This is a big change, and makes the emphasis on hybrid operations and precision intelligence all the more important.

Air Power OLD (STATE) EMPHASIS Limited Fixed Wing Limited VSTOL Imagery Transport Limited VSTOL Gunships Hand-held Imagery VIP Transport Medevac NEW (HYBRID) EMPHASIS Contracted Long-Haul Regional Management Big Air to Small Air Big Boats to Small Boats Long Loiter Surveillance VSTOL for All Purposes Precision Cargo Drops Peace Jumpers With respect to Air Power, and bearing in mind my focus on hybrid operations in which the UN may be, at best, a coordinator rather than a commander , I believe intelligence from above and agility from above will be signal contributions.

Intelligence I of II OLD (STATE) EMPHASIS Depend on Members Depend on Secrets Depend on Active Lies Lack 90% of what is needed to do mandate, force structure, campaign plan, and day to day tactics. NEW (HYBRID) EMPHASIS Harness World Brain 90% Open Source Lies quickly exposed Can have—if leaders will be leaders—90% of what is needed to do precision peacekeeping and “peaceful preventive measures” IS Open Source I have – on the basis of 30 years deep experience, with Top Secret Codeword Access from 1976 to 2006—completely rejected the false premises put forward by the military-intelligence-industrial complex. The future of intelligence as decision-support is not federal, not secret, and not expensive.

Intelligence II of II I have been speaking to the eight tribes of intelligence since the 1990’s but we still are incapable of doing what I now call Multinational, Multiagency, Multidisciplinary, Multidomain Information-Sharing and Sense-Making, M4IS2. On the right is my new slide, inspired by the UN High Level Panel on Threats, Challenge and Change, and my own professional reflections on the craft of intelligence. The UN is going nowhere unless it gets a grip on both of these concepts … eight tribes, and M4IS2. The USG has for almost a quarter century refused to consider these ideas.

Strategic Opportunity Lost: Iraq II My name is Colin Powell and I believe, based largely on overhead imagery and one human CURVEBALL, that…. Failure of UN Strategic Airpower including Space Reconnaissance Failure of UN Strategic Intelligence (non-existent, co-equal with NATO) Although I and many others tried to speak truth to the public on Iraq, our cash up-front full page newspaper ads were rejected by the mainstream media. The FACT is that Dick Cheney led us to war on the basis of 935 now-documented lies, and Colin Powell went along. Since 1988 I have been committed to creating a new multinational intelligence discipline that emphasizes sharing and openness instead of secrecy and deceit. We need that. Without it the UN will continue to be largely a quagmire.

Operational Opportunity Lost: Haiti AIR DROP KITS OR CREATE LOCAL FACTORIES OVERNIGHT Haiti is another opportunity lost. Not only did the US Southern Command show its lack of intelligence by sending in 20,000 troops with their very large logistics needs, but it demonstrated ZERO understanding of operational campaign management or the utility of shared information to orchestrate long-haul air into the region and short-haul air into all six of the working airports. Big Air Re-Sort Small Air Delivery Light Nested Plastic + Design Intelligence

Tactical Opportunity Lost: Pakistan As an educated and ethical officer I am personally offended by the manner in which the USA is killing people all over the world—not just in Pakistan—with remote controlled drones and covert special operations teams. I consider the current NATO attacks against Tripoli to be war crimes, apart from their lack of accurate targetting intelligence. In my view, the UN should be able to stop these kinds of campaigns using public intelligence. Undeclared Air War, Atrocities? Video Air War Bad Intelligence, Atrocities?

Technical Opportunity Lost: Nuclear I believe the UN, because it is not trained, equipped, or organized to “do” global intelligence or “intelligence from above,” has been a failure at encouraging proper planning across nuclear and other energy options, and also unable to prevent or retroactively punish covert attacks on nuclear capabilities. Nuclear power needs to be safe, and it needs to be developed in conjunction with a proper understanding of the true cost over the full life cycle of all possible sources of energy. Predictable & Preventable by UN IAEA 2012 Earthquakes & Tsunamis Expected

The Future of UN Intelligence I Here, based on direct interviews and my work in developing the Class Before One for the UN in Beirut in August 2007, I depict the actual inputs to a typical UN mission, with a genuflection toward presumed secrets, and show the eight tribes that the UN is NOT exploiting properly.

The Future of UN Intelligence II This graphic shows how any UN intelligence endeavor must—in partnership with both the participating Members and the regional Members—consider all ten high-level threats in relation to all twelve core policies, and do so continuously and simultaneously. Right now the UN is incoherent and generally not under the control of the Secretary General, here I refer to the Specialized Agencies in particular. Coherent integrated intelligence is how the UN can influence and lead through shared intelligence.

The Future of UN Intelligence III I have the great advantage of having been able to learn from all of you during these past three days, and decided to add this slide—and the link to the complete Expeditionary Environment Model that I and others developed in 1988. I am as certain as I can be of anything that the next big leap in UN effectiveness will require the creation of a UN Department of Decision Support that is completely independent, is fully multinational, and is able to provide intelligence support to the strategic mandate, the operational force structure, the tactical campaign plan, and the technical future plans. 1990 Expeditionary Environment Analytic Model

The Future of UN Intelligence IV Make the Case for Peace The day will come when nations, publics, and markets can be influenced overnight by properly developed public intelligence. I’ve even developed the concept for Sir Richard Branson of a public company in the business of providing “The Virgin Truth,” but his staff keeps blocking my attempts to give him this idea. If anyone here can reach him, I’d like to have a chat. It’s a natural companion to his cellular business. Peace costs less than war but information asymmetries have allowed the few to profit at the expense of the many for centuries. Similarly, most charities deliver less than 10% of the donations to the field—the rest goes to salary and expenses. In the case of Bono, the figure is 1%. It’s time we put the intermediaries out of business. Cost of War Today 3X Cost of Peace Global Range of Nano-Needs Online

Peace from Above Intelligence-Driven Precision Peace Targets, Space, Cyber, Air Aerospace Power (Eyes, Sharing, Sense-Making, Precision Air Delivery This is the strategy that I have devised for the UN, emphasizing multinational open source intelligence and peace from above. It begins with accepting reality, sharing information openly, coming together across all boundaries to focus on the long-term. Faith matters—accountability matters. Ultimately Gandhi had it right, not just because he sought the truth, but because he changed the game. I’ve written an entire book around this slide, INTELLIGENCE for EARTH, as with all my books it is for sale at Amazon and also free online.

The Future of UN Air Power I Peace Jumpers Global Public Awareness Strip Alert Each Continent Regularly Exercised with Tangible Deliveries Jump with one day’s rations and comms Immediate begin calling in “peace strikes” Back office database of needs created Reverse TPFDD created and published All parties offering assistance must do so in relation to the Reverse TPFDD Priority to precision air drops (see II) Regional air management controls big air arriving at distribution points, breaks down to small air or cross-ships to small boats And now I move toward my conclusion with some specifics about the future of UN Air Power. I believe that the UN absolutely must develop cadres of what I call Peace Jumpers, one cadre per region, each cadre qualified in the relevant language or languages of the region. On day one of Haiti I would have had a string of Peace Jumpers across the country, each calling in Peace Targets—actual needs of the moment—to a multinational decision-support center. TPFDD : Time-Phased Force Deployment Data

The Future of UN Air Power II There are some very exciting developments in precision air drops, and while provision must be made for recovering the guidance units, this is in my view the single greatest advance in the possibilities of Peace from Above when combined with Peace Jumpers and a multinational decision-support centre. Flocking of sets of parachutes, active collision avoidance, multiple locations hit accurately with one string of parachutes, each to a separate village, these are all possible today.

The Future of UN Air Power III East Congo UN I helped General Cammaert when he was Force Commander in the Eastern Congo, and in the middle you can see his priorities for 1:50,000 combat charts that did not exist at the time. They were eventually created by the Dutch. The US does not have adequate maps for 90% of the world, at the same time that the Russians do. Laptops don’t work with bullet holes in them. I want the world at 1:50,000 on the shelf ready to go. For me, the future of UN Air Power demands that the UN be able to both provide truth from above, and ground truth, to any hybrid mix of parties from the eight tribes. Air C4I and regional C4I matter. C4I: Command, Control, Communications, Computers & Intelligence 1:50,000 Need

The Future of UN Air Power IV Manage Air-Sea Lift Regional Traffic Management Aircraft Origins Load to TPFDD FedEx & UPS Used Create a precision Berlin Airlift Peace Jumpers are the “strategic corporal” guiding precision deliveries loaded to specified need Intelligence-driven logistics Intelligence-driven operations Focus on people & needs, not on governments & armed force Finally, we come to regional air-sea lift management. I was totally stunned to watch the US Southern Command make a complete mess of this. Even without Peace Jumpers and Precision Parachutes, it would have been a simple matter to set up a regional air and sea lift command to route all big air and big sea into the regional facilities able to receive them, breaking everything down into smaller loads. Using all six ports would have had the added advantage of attracting over a million displaced persons away from Port au Prince and toward the distributed ports. Big Air Re-Sort Small Air Delivery

The Future of UN Air Power V Regional Influence via Intelligence with Integrity I knew in the mid-1990’s what we are just learning today with respect to cyber-threats, mercenaries, blood diamonds, and so on. No intelligence endeavor that is limited to one country can be effective. We MUST have regional multinational intelligence centers as well as a global multinational intelligence center. We MUST be able to create intelligence on all threats, all policies, all demographics, all the time—by the country, by the region, and globally to include the Artic.

Peace from Above Intelligence-Driven, Space, Cyber, Air, Sea, Ground http://tinyurl.com/SteeleUNAir See Also: 2011 Cyber-Command or IO 21 + IO Roots Reference: Building a Global Intelligence Web 2010 M4IS2 Briefing for South America — 2010 M4IS2 Presentacion por Sur America (ANEPE Chile) 2009 The Ultimate Hack: Re-Inventing Intelligence to Re-Engineer Earth (Denmark 27-28 October 2009) 2009 DoD OSINT Leadership and Staff Briefings 2009 The Ultimate Hack: Re-Inventing Intelligence to Re-Engineer the World (British Columbia for Engineers) My life’s ambition is to spend the next twenty years creating the World Brain and Global Game centered on a Multinational Decision-Support Centre. I’m having trouble finding anyone willing to actually champion such a construct. Here are a number of hot links in the online version that could be helpful to studying these ideas more deeply. The truth at any cost reduces all other costs. That is my view and that is my calling. 2009 Briefing: Open Everything at UNICEF in NYC 2008 DIA NDIC Multinational Intelligence Fellows http://tinyurl.com/SteeleUNAir 2007 Amazon as Hub of World Brain 2007 Open Everything: We Won, Let’s Self-Govern 2007 United Nations “Class Before One” Information-Sharing and Analytics Orientation 2006 Briefing to the Coalition Coordination Center (CCC) Leadership at the U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM)–Multinational Intelligence: Can CENTCOM Lead the Way? Reflections on OSINT & the Coalition

SteeleUNAir Slides & Notes Online Tiny URL: http://www.tinyurl.com/SteeleUNAir I remind you that all of these slides with words in Notes format are online at Tiny URL forward slash SteeleUNAir.

Envisioning the Future of UN Air Power Peace from Above. Thank you. Peace From Above: Envisioning the Future of UN Air Power