Political Barometer Survey: Political Parties, Presidential Aspirants Prepared by Ipsos Synovate Kenya Release Date: 2nd October 2012 Synovate is now Ipsos Synovate © 2012 Ipsos.  All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

Contents Political party support Presidential candidate preference Public opinion on runoff elections

Methodology

July/August survey – face to face, sample of 2,000 Survey Methodology Dates of polling 24th – 28th September 2012 2,229 respondents Sample Size Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size) Sampling methodology Universe Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areas Data collection methodology Computer Aided Telephonic Interview (CATI) Sampling error +/-2.2 with a 95% confidence level July/August survey – face to face, sample of 2,000

Sample Frame statistics Population Census as at 2009 Sample Structure Statistics Province Sample Frame statistics (September 2012) % Population Census as at 2009 Adults (18 years +) Central 292 13 2,548,038 Coast 196 9 1,711,549 Eastern 333 15 2,907,293 Nairobi 234 10 2,042,770 North Eastern 106 5 929,158 Nyanza 2,547,980 Rift Valley 549 25 4,795,482 Western 227 1,980,090 TOTAL 2,229 100 19,462,360

Political Party Support

Political Parties Act Registration of political parties According to the office of the registrar of political parties, there are 51 registered political parties in Kenya today Various political parties / presidential aspirants have since the beginning of the year staged a launch or re-launch Political Party Date of Launch / Activity URP 15th January POA 12th February RBK 22nd April UDFP 2nd May TNA 20th May New Ford Kenya 24th June Narc Kenya 3rd July (campaign secretariat) ODM 5th July (campaign secretariat) Federal Party of Kenya 20th August Narc 2nd September

“Which political party do you feel closest to if any?” Political party support (analysis of those who mention any party) “Which political party do you feel closest to if any?” Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

“Which political party do you feel closest to if any “Which political party do you feel closest to if any?” (by total sample) Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

“Which political party do you feel closest to if any?” Time Series Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

“Which political party do you feel closest to if any “Which political party do you feel closest to if any?” (by total sample) Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

Presidential Candidate Preference

“Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” (By Total) July 2012 survey 33% September 2012 survey 23% 7% 7% 12% 9% 4% 1% 1% 2% Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

Presidential Candidate Choice -Time Series Base: All Respondents (n=2,229) Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

“Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” (By Province) Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

Presidential Aspirant Support vis a vis Political Party Support Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

Run-off Analysis

The New Constitution stipulates that “a candidate shall be declared President if the candidate receives more than half (over 50 per cent plus one) of all votes cast in the election” and these survey results indicate the probability of a runoff election

“Who would you vote for in case of a run-off between...” Proportion of those undecided is too high for the run off results below to be conclusive. The undecided respondents have a potential to change the political landscape once they decide and could swing the vote either way. Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

“Who would you vote for in case of a run-off between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta”?(by Province) Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

Gain: Loss Matrix in a Runoff Elections Supporters Strategic Voting Decisions: Raila vs. Uhuru In a run-off, Raila would; Maintain 94% of his supporters from round 1 elections In a run-off, Uhuru would Maintain 98% of his supporters from round 1 elections Benefit most from William Ruto’s (81%), Kalonzo Musyoka’s (63%), Martha Karua’s (53%) and Musalia Mudavadi’s (58%) supporters Base: All Respondents (n=2,229) April 2012 survey

“Who would you vote for in case of a run-off between Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka?” (by Province) Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

Gain: Loss Matrix in a Runoff Elections Supporters Strategic Voting Decisions: Raila vs. Kalonzo Base: All Respondents (n=2,229) April 2012 survey

“Who would you vote for in case of a run-off between Raila Odinga and Musalia Mudavadi?” (by Province) Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

Gain: Loss Matrix in a Runoff Elections Supporters Strategic Voting Decisions: Raila vs. Mudavadi Base: All Respondents (n=2,229) April 2012 survey

“Who would you vote for in case of a run-off between Raila Odinga and William Ruto?” (by Province) Base: All Respondents (n=2,229)

Gain: Loss Matrix in a Runoff Elections Supporters Strategic Voting Decisions: Raila vs. Ruto Base: All Respondents (n=2,229) April 2012 survey

Change in landscape attributed to; Conclusions Change in landscape attributed to; Supposed announcement that KANU would support ODM Prof Saitoti’s demise as leader of PNU The outcome of the by-elections in Kangema, Kajiado and Ndhiwa Defections or “threatened” defections Key factors to influence Final list of candidates on ballot box Running mates Pre-election party alliances Voter turn out

What next from Ipsos Synovate?

The French Elections 2012 (Round One) Sample size (n=1,000) Data collection methodology (telephonic interviewing)

The French Elections 2012 (Run-Off Elections ) Sample size (n=1,000) Data collection methodology (telephonic interviewing)

Ipsos Synovate will continue conducting political polling in Kenya Key focus over next 6 months are issue based polls Ipsos Global supports Ipsos Kenya in Opinion Polls Ipsos Global President in Kenya 4th to 6th October 2012

Questions? Comments?

For further information contact: Margaret Ireri Managing Director Margaret.ireri@ipsos.com Victor Rateng Project Manager - Opinion Polls victor.rateng@ipsos.com Follow us on twitter: @IpsosSynovateKe