SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Barometer July 2011 Findings Date: 20th July 2011

Scope of the Study The objectives of the study were as follows; To establish the most pressing problem facing Kenyans – now compared to 3 months ago. To identify Kenyans’ views on the factors hindering the implementation of The New Constitution. To assess the Presidential candidate and Political Party of choice. To understand what qualities Kenyans are looking for a Presidential candidate.

Methodology

Poll Methodology Dates of polling June 30th – July 8th, 2011 2000 respondents Sample Size Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS Universe Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areas Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the household level Data collection methodology Sampling error +/-2.2 with a 95% confidence level

Most serious problems facing Kenya today

“In your opinion, what is the most serious problem facing Kenya today “In your opinion, what is the most serious problem facing Kenya today?” (by Total) +33% Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

Prices of key commodities Commodity April 2011 July 2011 Maize flour (1 kg) Ksh 40 – 45 Kshs 67 – 80 Dry Maize (90 Kg bag) Ksh 2,000 – 2,600 Ksh 4,000 – 4,800 Sugar (1 kg) Ksh 94 – 98 Ksh 100 – 130 1 Litre Cooking Oil Ksh 210 – 245 Fuel (1 litre petrol) Ksh 104 Ksh 115.39 Fuel (1 litre diesel) Ksh 94.53 Ksh 106.12 Kerosene (1 litre) Ksh 84.53 Ksh 86. 16 Milk Ksh 28 Ksh 28 – 32 Bread (500mg) Ksh 32 - 34 Ksh 38 – 40 1 $ Ksh 83.55 Ksh 89.50 Source: Local shops / retail supermarkets collected by Synovate

“Within the past 6 months, do you think the level of corruption in Kenya has increased, decreased or stayed the same. ..” (by total) Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

% indicating these institutions are very committed/somewhat committed “How committed are the following institutions and/or personalities in fighting corruption?” (By total) % indicating these institutions are very committed/somewhat committed 86% 81% 51% 53% 56% 53% Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

Challenges facing the Implementation of the New Constitution

Only a few Bills have been signed into Law with about a month to the 26th August 2011 deadline. Crucial bills yet to be passed: Political Parties Bill Elections Bill Devolved Government Bill Citizenship Bill Ethics and Anti-Corruption Bill Budget and Finance Bill National Police Service Commission Bill Independent Policing and Oversight Authority Bill

Top 5 perceived difficulties “What is the main difficulty you foresee in implementing the New Constitution?” by Total Top 5 perceived difficulties Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

Presidential Candidate and Political Party Choice

% who highly approve + somewhat approve “How would you rate the overall or general performance of the coalition government over the last 3 months?” % who highly approve + somewhat approve

“Which political party do you feel closest to if any?” by Total Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

“Which political party do you feel closest to if any?” -Time Series

“If ODM which group within ODM, do you support?” by Total Base: n=650 (Those saying “ODM”)

Constitutional Requirements on the Presidency Article 137(1d) : The nomination process A person is qualified for nomination as a Presidential Candidate if he or she is endorsed by not fewer than 2,000 voters from each of a majority of the Counties ( in at least 24 Counties before being endorsed by the electoral commission)” Article 138(4) : Declaration of winner A candidate shall be declared President if the candidate receives More than half (over 50%) of all votes cast in the election and At least 25% of the votes cast in each of more than half of the Counties “(47 Counties i.e. 24 Counties)

“Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” by Total Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

“Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” by Total Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

“Why would you vote for your preferred presidential candidate “Why would you vote for your preferred presidential candidate?” (top 5) Leadership Attribute Context One who has good leadership skills Visionary, responsible, principled, hardworking, courageous, impartial, authoritative, mature and builds unity among Kenyans [article 131 (1e); Symbol of unity ] A person of integrity Not corrupt, transparent and trustworthy An individual who is a reformist Will bring about change in Kenya, is ready for change, will initiate reforms, e.g. implementing the new constitution diverse opinions, has progressive ideas, will streamline the political landscape One who is mindful of Kenyans’ welfare Helpful to people , cares about the people’s welfare, addresses the issues pertaining the high cost of living, understands people’s problems, can defends citizens, concerned with youth welfare and represent their interests One who is development conscious Has good development ideas, good development record, meaning that he/she action oriented Someone who is “young” “Young, newer generation of politicians

“Why would you vote for your preferred presidential candidate?” Base: n=1,900 (those who name a candidate they would vote for )

POLL METHODOLOGY The target population for this survey was all Kenyan adults aged 18 and above (voting age). A sample size of 2,000 respondents was drawn, using a 32:68 urban to rural ratio. The margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 % margin at 95% confidence level. This sample size is large enough to make reliable estimates on the target population opinion. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 30th June - 8th July, 2011 To achieve this sample a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) was used. This ensures that districts with a higher population size had a proportionately higher sample size allocation. This survey was conducted in 56 administrative and geographical districts in Kenya The interviews were done at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they allow for pure random sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for quality control.

Poll Methodology (Cont..) These face-to-face in-home interviews are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as respondents have more time to respond to questions as compared to street interviews. The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random starting point was selected within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4 households until the sample size for that cluster in the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was then selected from each qualifying household through a household member randomization technique known as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member selection. In cases where the eligible respondent was not available for interviewing, the field interviewers made at least 3 callbacks. If after the third callback the required respondent was still not available for the interview, the field interviewer substituted that household for another. The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended questions. The poll questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided, including no opinion. This ensures that there is no bias at all with the way the questions are asked. Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork Supervisors made a minimum of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, while the field managers made 2% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing

For further enquiries contact Maggie Ireri Managing Director Synovate Kenya Tel: 4450190 - 6 maggie.ireri@synovate.com or Victor Rateng Project Manager, Opinion Polls Synovate Kenya Tel: 4450190 - 6 victor.rateng@synovate.com