ARCH(m) Example. S&P/TSX Capped Composite

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Presentation transcript:

ARCH(m) Example. S&P/TSX Capped Composite Financials, energy, industries, materials TSX listed stocks 4 banks

rate log (ratio) volatility smo(y) lowess(y) lowess(|y – smo(y)| library(tseries) junk0<-scan("SPTXT.txt") p<-rev(junk0) y<-diff(log(p)) ny<-length(y) par(mfrow=c(2,1)) xaxis<-1:ny y<-ts(y,start=1,end=ny) plot(y,main="SPTXT 2010 to 2013",xlab="trading day",ylab="return") lunk<-lowess(xaxis,abs(y-mean(y)),f=.001) yabs<-ts(lunk$y,start=1,end=ny) plot(yabs,main="Smoothed abs(deviation)",xlab="trading day",ylab="")

acf, pacf ARCH? par(mfrow=c(2,1)) acf(y,main="ACF SPTXT returns",xlab="lag (days)") yy<-y-mean(y);yy<-yy^2 pacf(yy,main="PACF SPTXT returns^2",xlab="lag (days)")

Fitted conditional (variance?) plugged in estimate of library(tseries) P<-5 PP<-P+1 junk1<-garch(y,order=c(0,P),grad="analytic") summary(junk1) par(mfrow=c(2,1)) yvol<-ts(junk1$fit[,1],start=1,end=ny) plot(yvol,type="l",ylim=c(0,max(abs(y))),main=paste("Estimated volatility - ARCH",P),xlab="trading day",ylab="volatility") Standardized residuals (of?) yres<-ts(junk1$res,start=1,end=ny)

Standardized residuals (of?) yres<-ts(junk1$res,start=1,end=ny) plot(yres,main="Residuals ofARCH(5)",type="l",xlab="tradingday",ylab="return")

GARCH(m,r)