Counterfactual impact evaluation: Czech experience with control groups Oto Potluka University of Economics Prague potluka@vse.cz HTTP://CIE.VSE.CZ

Character of the assistance Operational Programme Human resources and employment, support area 1.1 „Adaptability“ Aimed at preventing unemployment by investment into human capital For the purpose of CIE we use projects of trainings aimed at improving skills and knowledge of firms´ employees

5 main areas of interest We will test the impact of ESF assistance in 31 research questions: on financial turnover of firms on profit of firms on employment in firms on investment into skills and knowledge of employees in firms on fluctuation of employees in firms.

Timing The actual assistance started in 2009 We have got data for pre-assistance period (2006 – 2008) and 2009 The data for 2010 – 2012 will be collected later

Data sets Call „Vzdělávejte se!“ - 3357 firms Grant calls for proposals– 1481 firms Control group – plan 3000 – 4000 firms (probably 10 000 firms) Rejected applicants (in grant calls for proposals)

Structure of data There are mainly (99 %) Limited companies and Stock companies in the sample It enabled cooperation with the Czech Statistical Office (individual entrepreneurs would cause methodological problems with collecting data)

Methods Regression discontinuity design Instrumental variables Propensity score matching (difference – in – difference)

Challenges Accessibility of reliable data – depends on data source and composition of tested models Qualitative vs. Quantitative methods of evaluation – concerns the evaluation community and skills in use of both types of methods

Results for RDD (Call 23) The following graph is a kernel estimation of density of probability for density of points and the increase of revenues of firms With the support, there should be „a ridge“ heading to north-east with two „peaks“ (divided by the border) The last slide: testing if there is increase / decrease change in number of firms in on the border line.

Some results (Call 23 - RDD)

Thank you for your attention! Oto Potluka potluka@vse.cz HTTP://CIE.VSE.CZ