Y.-L. Chang, L.-Y. Oey, F.-H. Xu, H.-F. Lu and A.Fujisaki 2010 Oil Spill: Trajectory Projections Based on Ensemble Drifter Analyses* Y.-L. Chang, L.-Y. Oey, F.-H. Xu, H.-F. Lu and A.Fujisaki Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA * Chang, Oey, Xu, Lu & Fujisaki, 2011: 2010 Oil Spill - trajectory projections based on ensemble drifter analyses. Ocean Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s10236-011-0397-4. PDF Format; also available from: http://www.aos.princeton.edu/WWWPUBLIC/PROFS/publications.html

2010 Oil Spill in Gulf of Mexico It may take 2~3 months to stop leaking Photo by US coast guard satellite image on May/24

Method: simulated drifters MODEL: Princeton Ocean Model Resolution: 3~5km/5~10km Location: accident site and 4 surrounding grid points. Time: Apr/21~ Frequency: Daily release, using 3 hourly data Depth: surface/ 800m

Apr/21-Jun/20, 2-Month Ensemble Visitation Frequency + Uncertainty

Residence Time (days)

04/21 05/05 06/20 tracking

Apr/21~Jun/20 (60days) Z=-800m