Sea ice in 2008 and leading up: Changes in perennial vs. seasonal ice

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Presentation transcript:

Sea ice in 2008 and leading up: Changes in perennial vs. seasonal ice WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Sea ice in 2008 and leading up: Changes in perennial vs. seasonal ice Myself: Co-Chair of this workshop series, with Hajo Eicken as the Lead Co-Chair of the whole affair. My background early career in tow research centres in Norway, sea ice and climate, primarily from long observational time series, instrumental historical and high-resolution paleo … My earlier work was a series of satellite passive microwave analyses in Norway, ’95, ’97 and ’99. (ice and multiyear ice decrease) not onlythe extent and area. It is nice to see that we were right … though of course had no idea that the rate of change would be a large and abrupt as it appears to be.

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Sea ice 2008 Winter sea-ice extent (3/2008) highest in last 4 years Johannessen, Env. Res. Lett. (submitted)

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Drobot et al., Science (submitted); Maslanik et al., GRL (2007)

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Based on ice age patterns, ice cover is preconditioned for another ice retreat  2007 Probability of new record minimum in 2008: 64% to 84% Implies an increasingly seasonal ice cover in most regions

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM