Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Updating the Baseline and Maximum Control scenarios State of play of the EC4MACS project Stakeholder Expert Group on the Review of the EU Air Policy; Brussels, June 6-7, 2011

EC4MACS: A toolbox for an integrated assessment of the interactions between different policy areas EC4MACS considers interactions between economic sectors, policy areas, spatial scales, temporal scales, physical processes, etc. All EC4MACS models and interfaces have been peer reviewed in 2010

Contents Key findings on baseline development from the EC4MACS Interim Assessment Issues for the Final Baseline

1. Key findings on baseline development Key features: Fully integrated perspective (energy/transport/agriculture/land use) For first time: Outlook to 2030

Despite a 50% increase in GDP, EU-27 energy use would stabilize The EC4MACS Interim Assessment Mega-trends: Energy consumption up to 2030 The Baseline assumes MS policies as of 2009, but not the targets of the Energy & Climate Package Despite a 50% increase in GDP, EU-27 energy use would stabilize No major changes in fuel shares, although renewables increase Saturation of transport demand after 2020 Energy use by fuel Energy use by sector Energy intensity of GDP Mileage per person

Decrease of cows and cattle, increase of pigs The EC4MACS Interim Assessment Mega-trends: Agricultural and land use development Decrease of cows and cattle, increase of pigs Strong increase in bio-fuel production More land area for crops and wood production Increase in fuel wood Bio-fuel production Livestock numbers Wood production

But also C sinks from LULUCF are expected to decline The EC4MACS Interim Assessment – Key Findings: Current policies should lead to a decline in GHG emissions By sector By gas The Baseline suggests a clear decline of GHGs, but C&E targets will not be met Most of the decline of energy related emissions will occur after 2020, while non-CO2 gases have declined before 2010 But also C sinks from LULUCF are expected to decline LULUCF emissions

The EC4MACS Interim Assessment – Key Findings: Most air pollutant emissions will decline too The baseline includes current legislation with national interpretations of IPPC/IED directive Strong decline in SO2, NOx, PM, VOC before 2020, but less improvements expected after 2020 Only little change in NH3 after 2010 SO2 PM2.5 VOC NOx NH3

All impact indicators will decline to 2030 The EC4MACS Interim Assessment – Key Findings: Air pollution impacts will decline, but damage costs remain substantial All impact indicators will decline to 2030 Baseline will come close to TSAP targets in 2020, except for eutrophication New: Assessment for Natura2000 areas Monetary benefits dominated by health Natura2000 areas: Excess of critical loads in 2020 Eutrophication Acidification Damage costs

There is potential for further cost-effective action with large benefits EU-27, based on Holland et al., 2010

2. Issues for the Final Baseline Maximum Controls instead of Maximum Technical Feasible Reductions Recent legislation to be considered in baseline Modelling of the transport sector Compliance with AQ limit values National scenarios Final EC4MACS baseline to be completed in late 2011/early 2012

Scope for further environmental improvements from technical measures in 2020 Health Acidification Eutrophication

Scope for further emission reductions: Maximum Controls instead of Maximum Technical Feasible Reductions Climate change policies can increase scope for air pollution reductions: The Interim Baseline does not assume compliance with EU Energy & Climate targets. What to assume for the Final Baseline? Implications of a 2-degree scenario?

Ambient concentrations of PM2 Ambient concentrations of PM2.5 – Baseline vs 2 degree Europe, population-weighted, annual mean This includes only the anthropogenic fraction, and refers to background concentrations POLES Baseline scenario POLES 2 degree scenario Ranges indicate variations over countries/provinces/states

Ambient concentrations of PM2 Ambient concentrations of PM2.5 - Baseline vs 2 degree Population-weighted, annual mean WHO guideline Europe China India Ranges indicate variations over countries/provinces/states

Loss of statistical life expectancy - Baseline vs 2 degree Life shortening attributable to PM2.5 Europe China India

Scope for further emission reductions: Maximum Controls instead of Maximum Technical Feasible Reductions Further potential for reductions of emissions in agriculture: A ‘healthy diet’ scenario?

Agricultural non-CO2 GHG emissions in 2030 EU-27, initial EC4MACS estimates

Modelling of the transport sector Road transport: GAINS employs COPERT-IV emission factors for all countries, while some countries rely on other sources in their inventories

Compliance with NOx emission ceilings in 2010 calculated with GAINS data, with different emission factors for road sources

Modelling of the transport sector Road transport: GAINS employs COPERT-IV emission factors for all countries, while some countries rely on other sources in their inventories What to assume about real-life emissions for Euro-6/VI? Consider options for Euro-7/VII? Non-road mobile machinery: Consider potential for faster turnover? Ships (MEPC57): Max. S content in marine bunker fuels 3.5% in 2012 and 0.5% in 2020. For SECAs, max. S content 1.0% in 2010 and 0.1% in 2015. NOx Tier I and II emission limit values for newer vessels: Tier III standard (80% reduction) for designated NOx emission control areas from 2016 onwards What do assume for maximum control scenario?

Modelling compliance with AQ limit values The EC4MACS approach to improve the former City-delta method: Derive city-specific urban increments from the difference between CHIMERE high and low resolution runs Box model for street canyons, linked to other scales – validate for stations with reported violations Present methodology and validation at workshop in September 2011 Invite for comparisons with other urban models for different cities (incl. FAIRMODE, CITYZEN, MEGAPOLI, OPERA, etc.) Urban increments for NO2 (for Jan-June period, ppb) Provisional CHIMERE results, INERIS

Other issues National activity projections? Effectiveness of emission control measures and policies?

Further information: www.ec4macs.eu Conclusions EC4MACS is now ready for the final policy analyses to provide a solid integrated knowledge base for the review of the EU air policy Questions for discussion: Do you agree with proposed assumptions? Are there any methodological issues to be addressed before the final review (after EC4MACS)? Which sectors need further attention? Further information: www.ec4macs.eu