Implications of climate change

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Presentation transcript:

Implications of climate change Albert.Klein.Tank@KNMI.nl WRMA-WMO-World Bank-WFP Expert Meeting, Geneva, Dec. 2007

Projections for NL (KNMI, 2006) WRMA-WMO-World Bank-WFP Expert Meeting, Geneva, Dec. 2007

Projections for NL Global Climate Models (IPCC-AR4 model archive) provide global warming, sea level rise and circulation change WRMA-WMO-World Bank-WFP Expert Meeting, Geneva, Dec. 2007

Projections for NL Global Climate Models (IPCC-AR4 model archive) Regional Climate Models (EU-FP projects: PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES) provide other variables and spatial details WRMA-WMO-World Bank-WFP Expert Meeting, Geneva, Dec. 2007

Projections for NL Global Climate Models (IPCC-AR4 model archive) Regional Climate Models (EU-FP projects: PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES) Historical observations long records needed for estimating changes in local extremes WRMA-WMO-World Bank-WFP Expert Meeting, Geneva, Dec. 2007

Implications for CAT and WRM markets Key question is: “How will the return periods for local events change in a non-stationary climate?” Considering only historical data will not provide adequate probabilities of extremes Tendency towards probabilistic forecasts and projections based on model ensembles requires more advanced services from NMHS than timely data deliveries alone! WRMA-WMO-World Bank-WFP Expert Meeting, Geneva, Dec. 2007

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