The Status of Real Sector Macroeconomic Statistics in Africa and Around The World Sixth Meeting of the Statistical Commission for Africa United Nations Conference Centre – Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Session VI – Partners Statistical Capacity Building Programmes October 4, 2018 Claudia Dziobek, Division Chief, IMF Statistics Department

The IMF’s Key Roles Economic Surveillance Lending Capacity Development Provide advice to members on adopting policies that can help them achieve macroeconomic stability, thereby accelerating economic growth and alleviating poverty. Lending Make financing temporarily available to member countries to help them address balance of payments problems, which include circumstances in which they find themselves short of foreign exchange because their external payments exceed their foreign exchange earnings. Capacity Development Offer technical assistance and training to countries, at their request, to help them build and strengthen the expertise and institutions they need to implement sound economic policies, including price statistics. (IMF 2017 Annual Report) http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ar/2017/eng/pdfs/IMF-AR17-English.pdf

Capacity Development – GDP and Prices Reliable and timely GDP and price statistics are essential to support Africa’s economic policy objectives and … GDP and other national accounts measures (e.g. household expenditure) are inputs for many policy indicators GDP and CPI serve as references to adjust wages, pensions, social benefits, as indicators of debt sustainability … Producer price index and CPI support estimates of real GDP Timeliness is key to support forecasting and data analysis.

GDP and Prices are central to the SDGs and Indicators More than one-third of SDG Indicators include economic variables SDG Indicators 232 National Accounts and Prices Government Finance Statistics Balance of Payments Financial Access Survey Impacts SDG Goals: 1, 2, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, and 14 Impacts SDG Goals: 1, 7, 10, 11, 14, 16, and 17 Linked directly to SDG Goals 7 and 17 Impacts SDG Goals: 2, 3, 8, 9, 10, 15, 16, and 17 Linked directly to an indicator under SDG Goal 8

Key Criteria for GDP Age of benchmark year The availability of quarterly GDP Timeliness of dissemination Independence of production and expenditure GDP The SNA vintage applied This presentation is based on a study of 192 countries, published as an IMF Working Paper. (Berry, Stanger, Iommi, Venter, GDP: How Useful are the Data for Policy?). The slides labeled “Africa” refer to UNECA countries.

GDP - Age of Benchmark Year SNA recommends updated GDP benchmarks (usually every 5-10 years) 189 economies AFRICA

Availability of Annual (A) and Quarterly (Q) GDP

GDP – Timeliness of Dissemination Annual GDP 189 economies AFRICA

GDP – Timeliness of Dissemination Quarterly GDP 133 economies AFRICA

GDP by Region and Approach

Are Production and Expenditure GDP Derived Independently? 167 economies AFRICA

Vintage of SNA 189 economies AFRICA

GDP Compilation in Africa – Key Points Keep the base year up to date Develop quarterly GDP Publish data in a timely manner In 50-60* percent of UNECA countries, these are the key deficiencies. For countries that are fast growing, experience large demographic or technological change, these three points are very important to maintain relevance of the data. * Consult IMF Working Paper: GDP: How Useful are the Data for Policy?, Washington DC (2018) for country-specific details – and whether this applies to your country.

Price Statistics to Support Policy Timeliness and frequency of publication Classification system adopted Geographic (CPI) and industrial (PPI) coverage Currentness of weights reference period This part of the presentation is based on the forthcoming IMF Working Paper: Price Statistics in 196 Economies: The Relevance for Policy Analysis.

CPI: Timeliness and Frequency 196 economies AFRICA

CPI: COICOP Classification 196 economies AFRICA

CPI: Geographic Coverage 196 economies AFRICA DMSR1S-#6536368-v1-6thSCA-STA_PowerPoint_Presentation_RE

CPI: Age of Weights Reference Period target 196 economies AFRICA DMSR1S-#6536368-v1-6thSCA-STA_PowerPoint_Presentation_RE

PPI: Timeliness and Frequency target 126 economies AFRICA

PPI: Classification ISIC target 126 economies AFRICA

PPI: Industrial Coverage MMU: mining, manufacturing and utilities 126 economies AFRICA DMSR1S-#6536368-v1-6thSCA-STA_PowerPoint_Presentation_RE

PPI: Age of PPI Weight Reference Period target 126 economies AFRICA

Key Points for Price Statistics in Africa CPI Compiled almost universally, monthly, timely, fairly well aligned with international standards but weights are often out of date. PPI (Producer Price Index) Not compiled in over half of UNECA countries. PPI is needed for “real GDP” estimates and key to show the “real picture” of GDP growth, diversification, the growing role of services, etc. Those who compile a PPI should maintain updated weights to reflect the changing economy.

General Conclusions Africa compares favorably with the rest of the world (as a whole) in most areas. Quarterly GDP, updated weights, updated base years (GDP), and timely dissemination are the key areas where improvements are needed. This requires investments in the source data (including administrative data, surveys, etc.). The availability of good quality GDP and prices indicators are key factors for the enhancement of policies targeting economic diversification and industrialization.

Thank you