A GOOD DECISIONS HOW TO MAKE Lee kun-sung Shin soon-young Korea polytechnic university

INDEX 01 Introduction 02 Sizing up a decision 03 Finding and weighing options 04 Information is a flashlight 05 The courage to decide 06 Summary Korea polytechnic university

PART Introduction 1 Korea polytechnic university

How can I make a good decisions? Korea polytechnic university

- Formalized process for making decisions 01 Introduction - Formalized process for making decisions Ideal decision - Weighing options - Defining criteria - Seeking out different ways Realistic decision Reasonable assumption Intuition Quick projection of the immediate issue - 1 - Korea polytechnic university

01 Introduction * Why? Why do people fail to make a decision? Decision maker invested his energy poorly across all of the different decisions he had to make. It rarely has enough information or time to make these decision methods work. Idealized procedures developing experience through simulations of common problems and challenges. intuition Experience they make good decisions by maximizing those resources training Each other - 2 - Korea polytechnic university

PART Sizing up a decision 2 Korea polytechnic university

The core question to use in sizing up a decision The first part of decision making is to determine the significance of the decision at hand The core question to use in sizing up a decision The core Question What problem is at the core of the decision? How long will this decision impact the project? If you’re wrong, what’s the impact/cost? Have we made this kind of decision before? Who has the expert perspective? Whose approval do we need? - 3 - Korea polytechnic university

What problem is at the core of the decision? If you’re the wrong, what’s the impact/cost? 02 Sizing up a decision The first part of decision making is to determine the significance of the decision at hand The core question to use in sizing up a decision The core Question What problem is at the core of the decision? How long will this decision impact the project? If you’re wrong, what’s the impact/cost? Have we made this kind of decision before? Who has the expert perspective? Whose approval do we need? - 4 - Korea polytechnic university

PART Finding and weighing options 3 Korea polytechnic university

Comparative evaluation 03 Finding and weighing options The two basic ways people make decisions Singular evaluation The zone of difference Comparative evaluation The first reasonable alternative found is accepted. Example) You go to the nearest restaurant because you feel hungry. You seriously need to go to the bathroom. You take a cap to go to somewhere(proper?) Singular evaluation Several alternatives are evaluated against each other before deciding Example) To take a time to decide a dish that you want to eat. When you’re character leveled up, pick a place to hunt in the dungeon or in the field. To consider to grab a coffee in the coffee shop. Comparative evaluation - 5 - Korea polytechnic university

The easy way to comparison 03 Finding and weighing options Emotions and clarity There are always emotional and psychological issues involved in decision making. The easy way to comparison The pros and cons list. - 6 - Korea polytechnic university

Important considerations for using it 03 Finding and weighing options Important considerations for using it Always include a “do nothing” option How do you know what you think you know? Ask tough questions Have a dissenting opinion Consider hybrid choices. Start on paper or a whiteboard Refine until stable - 7 - Korea polytechnic university

Important considerations for using it Always include a “do nothing” option Start on paper or a whiteboard 03 Finding and weighing options Important considerations for using it Always include a “do nothing” option How do you know what you think you know? Ask tough questions Have a dissenting opinion Consider hybrid choices. Start on paper or a whiteboard Refine until stable - 8 - Korea polytechnic university

Discuss and evaluate Three options Sherlock Holmes : elimination rule 03 Finding and weighing options Discuss and evaluate Three options Sherlock Holmes : elimination rule If you eliminate the worst choices, whatever remains must be your best choice. Occam’s Razor : simplicity Process of trying to cut away all of the unneeded details. Reflection : to step back You need a time to digest everything you’ve been thinking about. - 9 - Korea polytechnic university

PART Information is a flashlight 4 Korea polytechnic university

Using information properly? 04 Information is a flashlight Using information properly? It helps us define our true opinions and make decisions Numerical data gives a kind of precision that human language cannot The lack of study into the answer makes the claim difficult to trust Misconception about information Data does not make decisions All data isn’t created equally Research as ammunition The best defense against data manipulation and misinterpretation Direct communication between people. Talk to people who wrote the report instead of just reading it Avoid second-, third-, and fourth-hand information whenever possible. Talking to expert directly -10- Korea polytechnic university

Precision is not accuracy 04 Information is a flashlight Precision is not accuracy Precision : how specific a measurement is Accuracy : how close to reality a measurement is. -11- Korea polytechnic university

PART The courage to decide 5 Korea polytechnic university

Some decisions have no winning choices 05 The courage to decide There is a big difference knowing the right choice and making the right choice. Decision making is leaders do, and the better the leader, the more courage needed. Some decisions have no winning choices Good decision can have bad results -12- Korea polytechnic university

Paying attention and looking back 05 The courage to decide Paying attention and looking back You have to make decisions that challenge you and force you to work hard. You should pay attention to the outcomes of your decisions and evaluate, with the help of others involved. -13- Korea polytechnic university

Paying attention and looking back 05 The courage to decide Paying attention and looking back Rough list of questions for reviewing decisions Did the decision resolve the core issue? Was there better logic or information that could have been used to filter out options faster? Did the vision, specification, or requirements help in making the decision? Did the decision help the project progress? Were the key people brought into the process and behind the decision? Did the decision prevent of cause other problems? In hindsight, were the things you were worried about while making the decision the right things? Did you have sufficient authority to make the right call? How can what was learned in making this decision be applied elsewhere in the project? -14- Korea polytechnic university

6 SUMMARY Korea polytechnic university

Size up decisions before spending too much time on them. 06 Summary There is an important skill in meta-decision making, or decisions about which decisions to invest time in. Size up decisions before spending too much time on them. Look for the zone of indifference and opportunities for effective use of singular evaluation. Use comparative evaluation for the decisions worthy of more investment. All decisions have emotional components to them whether we admit it or not. Pros and cons lists are the most flexible method for comparative evaluation. Information and data do not make decisions for you You improve at decision making by reviewing past decisions and exploring them for lessons and opportunities for better tactics. -15- Korea polytechnic university

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