Italy’s project on exhastiveness of domestic extraction estimates TF MFA Meeting Italy’s project on exhastiveness of domestic extraction estimates Aldo Femia Istat Luxembourg, 03-04 May 2012

Ongoing work Calculation of a physical supply matrix (Eurostat grant) MFA TASK FORCE MAY 2012 Calculation of a physical supply matrix (Eurostat grant) Fully coherent with monetary Supply tables Its parts referring to primary products (i.e. directly extracted from nature) can be used for EW-MFA Connected to IOTs Suitable for use with both industry-by-industry and product-by-product symmetric tables.

Tha basic idea: background information MFA TASK FORCE MAY 2012 In the construction of the Italian monetary National accounts, a product-by industry matrix based on the PRODCOM data is used in order to distribute by product the results of the elaborations on revenue from the sale of goods (industrial goods’ output) from two surveys on enterprises’ economic results (big companies/SME; results are «corrected» by using the «Franz» method) The results are then combined with other information (mainly on labour input measured from the supply side – firms underreport) and balanced in a full S-U system. The resulting 266 products X 166 industries comprise all adjustments needed to guarantee: exhaustiveness coherence

The basic idea: further background MFA TASK FORCE MAY 2012 Underreporting is very likely to happen also for quantities PRODCOM is not exhaustive Firms are probably coherent with values’ underreporting WHY DO ALL THE WORK AGAIN?

The basic idea MFA TASK FORCE MAY 2012 Matrix A: PRODCOM output (value) FROM NA Matrix B: Final estimate of output (value) FROM NA Matrix C: PRODCOM output (quantities) To be calculated by the same procedures as matrix A Matrix C*: Final estimate of output (quantities) C*ij = Cij * (Bij/Aij) All matrices by product (aggregated as part of the 266) and industry (part of the 166)

Appetite comes while eating MFA TASK FORCE MAY 2012 Why limit ourselves to the supply of extracted minerals (== used domestic extraction of mineral resources)? Once you do the work, it can be done for all industrial products Complication: for many products (other than minerals) PRODCOM used other units => transform everything in weight (for what purpose? Please be patient!)

Transformation of PRODCOM in weight units MFA TASK FORCE MAY 2012 Trade statistics, as long as they are not simplified, offer a mine of information in physical as well as monetary terms Weigth always present Value always present Highly disaggregated (more than PRODCOM) by kind of good Alternative physical unit often present Often the same as PRODCOM unit Complication: correspondences between products (CN8/PRODCOM8) sometimes have to be sorted out…

Working with microdata MFA TASK FORCE MAY 2012 One way to get more precise estimates in general is to work – as much as possible - at the microdata level (firms in the PRODCOM sample should to some extent be present in exports) rather than with averages by product MAKING USE OF THE FIRMS’ REGISTER Also helps to sort correspondences out (…) Establishing a connection (also by way of statistical matching besides rekord linkage) opens up a whole world of possible analyses at the micro level… dreams of including waste and air emission data… visions of a panel of full-fledged material balances for individual firms e.g. to do econometric analyses…

Hierarchy of preference for transformation MFA TASK FORCE MAY 2012 Export data of exporting firms present in both data sets, by using alternative unit/weight, where a.u.=PRODCOM u. else value/weight Extrapolating export ratios to other firms by: statistical matching clustering firms (distribution of …/weight ratios) using averages Import data for products for which an output exists but no exports