Country Experiences - UN Commission Life Saving medicines Zimbabwe Experience Lake Victoria Serena Golf Resort-Uganda 8 to 10 September 2015

Forecasting and Quantification Part 2 Ropah Hove

Stock Status at NatPharm @ 31 July 2015

Commodities Received at NatPharm in 2012-2014

Quantification Process The following participate in the process; Programmes (Family Health, Nursing, Aids & TB) Partners supporting PSM including DFID, UNFPA, UNICEF, JSI, CHAI, Crown Agents, UNDP, USAID, WHO NatPharm ZNFPC Pharmacy Directorate at national and provincial levels (co-ordinating role) Process Gathering data Forecasting using agreed methods Supply Planning

Data Challenges Unavailability of consumption data especially from service delivery points due to low reporting rates Incomplete records/missing data Poor quality data Irrational prescribing resulting in either overestimation or underestimation

Assumptions Adjusted data approximates the true picture Reported data adjusted to account for missing periods Reported data on consumption adjusted to account for any stock outs Use surveys to get more information for morbidity based forecast such as: prevalence of a condition the breakdown of a condition among age groups Age distribution of population

Team Zimbabwe Mrs F N Sifeku, NatPharm Mr W Madenga, MoHCC Dr T Kanyowa, WHO Dr S Mashizha, MoHCC Mrs B Dube, MCAZ Mrs C Dandira-Samatanga, MCAZ Mrs R Hove, MoHCC